Just to note. RAMSDIS has moved their Goes-East Floater from the Bahamas System to the TW east of the Islands.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html
INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1
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skysummit wrote:18Z Guidance:
Some of those models take 93 near FL. Wouldn't that suck if the first two TC's of the season made landfall in FL?
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JamesFromMaine2
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html
Look at 96 hours theres a low crossing the islands!
Look at 96 hours theres a low crossing the islands!
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HurricaneHunter914
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HurricaneHunter914
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http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Ocean Temps support development, though shear right now has to decrease in front on the system for any further development.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Ocean Temps support development, though shear right now has to decrease in front on the system for any further development.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: Huh?
Noles2006 wrote:JamesFromMaine2 wrote:http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html
Look at 96 hours theres a low crossing the islands!
What? Where? I don't see it.
I think he was talking about vorticity in the 850mb level.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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WindRunner
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skysummit wrote:18Z Guidance:
The models are also pretty keen on developing the system - 50kts by the time it's in the Caribbean.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 0600 060627 1800 060628 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.2N 47.0W 9.1N 50.3W 10.1N 53.6W 11.1N 56.8W
BAMM 8.2N 47.0W 9.0N 50.3W 9.9N 53.6W 10.7N 56.8W
A98E 8.2N 47.0W 8.9N 49.3W 9.6N 51.8W 10.4N 54.5W
LBAR 8.2N 47.0W 8.8N 50.1W 9.9N 53.4W 10.8N 57.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 1800 060630 1800 060701 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 59.8W 15.6N 65.1W 19.3N 69.3W 22.3N 71.9W
BAMM 11.7N 59.9W 14.1N 65.6W 16.8N 71.0W 19.0N 76.1W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 13.9N 63.1W 16.6N 68.6W 19.1N 73.4W
LBAR 11.8N 60.8W 14.9N 66.7W 17.9N 70.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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gatorcane
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WindRunner wrote:skysummit wrote:18Z Guidance:
The models are also pretty keen on developing the system - 50kts by the time it's in the Caribbean.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 0600 060627 1800 060628 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.2N 47.0W 9.1N 50.3W 10.1N 53.6W 11.1N 56.8W
BAMM 8.2N 47.0W 9.0N 50.3W 9.9N 53.6W 10.7N 56.8W
A98E 8.2N 47.0W 8.9N 49.3W 9.6N 51.8W 10.4N 54.5W
LBAR 8.2N 47.0W 8.8N 50.1W 9.9N 53.4W 10.8N 57.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 1800 060630 1800 060701 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 59.8W 15.6N 65.1W 19.3N 69.3W 22.3N 71.9W
BAMM 11.7N 59.9W 14.1N 65.6W 16.8N 71.0W 19.0N 76.1W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 13.9N 63.1W 16.6N 68.6W 19.1N 73.4W
LBAR 11.8N 60.8W 14.9N 66.7W 17.9N 70.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
I sure hope those tracks don't verify
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gatorcane
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Ahhhh, notice the NHC has changed their wording ever so slightly regarding our wave - now indicating there is a chance of development....
From the 11:30 TWO:
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
From the latest (5:30) TWO:
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
From the 11:30 TWO:
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
From the latest (5:30) TWO:
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WindRunner
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EDIT: Never mind, you edited your post to actually include the new TWO.
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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