Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[WmE]

Yes, 115kts is Cat 4!

[cycloneye]

Saffir Simpson Scale



Above is the Saffir Simpson Scale.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is...At least in this case the nhc would not go 130 mph but go to cat4 with a Pacific system. I think this is more like 120-125 knots.

[tailgater]

Did you have to post that thing in the Gulf, curtadams, I could have gone all year without seeing that.

[cycloneye]

The good thing about this major cane is that it's a big fish that is not bothering anyone,maybe shipping lanes in the pacific.But I dont think any ships may want to be in the path of Daniel.

[whereverwx]

It's pretty impressive on the visible, too.

[Cyclenall]

I'm glad it made it to category 4 strength! Now, the biggest challenge....category 5 strength .

I see that Daniel is trying to wrap around the deep convection (red) around the eye again and hopefully will copy Hurricane Rita soon.

[Aquawind]

That's my kinda major cane..heading out to sea. EPAC flexing some muscle.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 202032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A
VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT
AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO
INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL
SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...
DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.
THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED
TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[WindRunner]

WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

...


THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG
THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.

....

3 days later . . . we have a 115kt Cat 4 . . . I love the FSU Super Ensamble.

[Cyclenall]

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A
VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE.

I love when I read that! Yes, Daniel is a monster! Strongest so far this 2006 season.

Now it has to get up to 120 Knots....

[Noles2006]

WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

...


THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG
THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.

....

3 days later . . . we have a 115kt Cat 4 . . . I love the FSU Super Ensamble.

You know you love FSU, too. ;]

[Epsilon_Fan]

Daniel's looking better and better but I don't think he will make it to Cat 5 due to conditions in his path...

[Cyclenall]

Daniel's looking better and better but I don't think he will make it to Cat 5 due to conditions in his path...

Yeah, that's sad. Just the fact he made it to category 4 status this year is quite good. Of course, this is nothing compared to other years like 1992 and 2002 when the Epac had CAT4's in June and May. Last year didn't have this type of pattern that the Epac has right now.

I will post more soon on this amazing hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If he makes it to a cat5 that spells a a more 2002 for Atlantic.

[HurricaneBill]

Category 5s in the EPAC usually occur during El Ninos. The sole exception being Hurricane Ava in 1973, which oddly enough, occured during a La Nina.

EPAC Category 5s:

Hurricane Ava 1973
Hurricane Gilma 1994
Hurricane John 1994
Hurricane Guillermo 1997
Hurricane Linda 1997
Hurricane Elida 2002 (posthumous upgrade to Category 5)
Hurricane Hernan 2002
Hurricane Kenna 2002

[AnnularCane]

Category 5s in the EPAC usually occur during El Ninos. The sole exception being Hurricane Ava in 1973, which oddly enough, occured during a La Nina.

EPAC Category 5s:

Hurricane Ava 1973
Hurricane Gilma 1994
Hurricane John 1994
Hurricane Guillermo 1997
Hurricane Linda 1997
Hurricane Elida 2002 (posthumous upgrade to Category 5)
Hurricane Hernan 2002
Hurricane Kenna 2002

Don't forget Emilia 1994!

[Cyclenall]

My current thoughts on this powerful hurricane in %:

New % chance for Major Hurricane Daniel to become a:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 100%
Category 5 Hurricane: 20% (very high)

New % chance that Major Hurricane Daniel will strengthen:

Slowly: 70%
Steady: 72%
Quickly: 55%
Rapidly: 37%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.1%

New % chance that Major Hurricane Daniel will weaken:

Slowly: 5%
Steady: Below 1%
Quickly: Below 1%
Rapidly: Below 1%

[CrazyC83]

Realistically, Category 5 seems quite far-fetched for any EPac storm outside of an El Nino.

[HurricaneBill]

Don't forget Emilia 1994!

Emilia's best track has her peaking at 135KT. Which is odd, because I remember her being a Category 5 on the Weather Channel and I even have a satellite pic of her listed as a Category 5.