cycloneye wrote:Folks,I edited the title to change the invest number to 96L.
Actually, it is still 98L. I think they are using the 96L number to supplement 98L to monitor two circulations. However, for official model purposes, it remains 98L.
98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
But my question is,why they went back from 98L to 96L and not go ahead to 99L if this is a new invest for the general WGOM area?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
cycloneye wrote:But my question is,why they went back from 98L to 96L and not go ahead to 99L if this is a new invest for the general WGOM area?
99L would suggest a new system. This isn't a new system, but rather a new circulation. So to do models and graphics on both circulations (to provide both sides of the coin), they grabbed an old number -- 96.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
senorpepr wrote:cycloneye wrote:Folks,I edited the title to change the invest number to 96L.
Actually, it is still 98L. I think they are using the 96L number to supplement 98L to monitor two circulations. However, for official model purposes, it remains 98L.
That may be right Mike.They are now tracking two circulations,one overland and another in the water.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
senorpepr wrote:GalvestonDuck wrote:The sky has just turned gray over the last few minutes and the wind is picking up. It's gonna start to get interesting here.
That's just the dark cloud that follows you, Duckie
LOL! Well, it gained weight and it's breathing too heavy...must be one sick cloud. I can outrun it!
Sprinkling now....
0 likes
senorpepr wrote:cycloneye wrote:But my question is,why they went back from 98L to 96L and not go ahead to 99L if this is a new invest for the general WGOM area?
99L would suggest a new system. This isn't a new system, but rather a new circulation. So to do models and graphics on both circulations (to provide both sides of the coin), they grabbed an old number -- 96.
I don't see another circulation at where they have 96L center at. Are they trying to leave the old center back and they trying to focus for a new center for 98L?
Last edited by Thunder44 on Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
http://www.galveston.com/webcams/ and click on the Surf cam.
It's extremely choppy out there compared to yesterday evening. Guess I'll be spending my day off inside today.
It's extremely choppy out there compared to yesterday evening. Guess I'll be spending my day off inside today.
0 likes
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
-
GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
From an email from JBWO:
Special Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
7:00 AM CDT Tuesday, July 25, 2006
...Tropical disturbance moving northward in the western Gulf of Mexico...
...Heavy rainfall expected over the next several days along the Texas Coast...
A tropical disturbance accompanied by a surface low pressure center of 1009 millibars
(29.80 inches) is located along the western Gulf Coast between Brownsville, Texas
and Tampico, Mexico. Movement is slowly northward at about 10 mph. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms...occasionally accompanied by gusty winds of
around 35 to 40 mph in a few squalls...are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico
extending northward to the Texas Coast near Matagorda Bay.
There has been little...if any...organization in this weather system since yesterday and
a scheduled U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flight was canceled Monday morning.
There is currently no plan to send a reconnaissance plane into this area today as
satellite pictures and radar observations indicate no evidence of a closed circulation
yet with the area of low pressure. However, upper level winds are slowly becoming
more favorable for slow development and a tropical depression or tropical storm may
form during the next 24 to 48 hours. Even if a tropical cyclone does form, the system
is now so close to land and expected to remain so, that only limited strengthening
would be possible before the system moves permanently inland.
The main impact of this weather system will be the threat of heavy rain along the Texas
Coast through Thursday. General rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with scattered totals of
4 to 6 inches and a few isolated totals of up to 10 inches will be possible along the
Texas Coast especially near and to the right of where the low pressure center moves.
Right now, it appears the low pressure center will track northward and move inland
between Corpus Christi and Galveston. However, you should not focus on an exact
track as embryonic systems such as this one are very disorganized and can send
heavy bands of precipitation over one area with very little rain only a few miles away.
As these bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms move onshore...there will likely be
a sudden but brief increase in winds with squalls of 30 to 40 mph...torrential rainfall...
and considerable cloud-to-ground lightning. Tropical funnel clouds and waterspouts
will also be possible mainly along the coast over the bays and Gulf of Mexico waters.
These usually only last for a few minutes and primarily occur in the hours between
sunrise and early afternoon. This repeating cycle of rain bands moving onshore will
occur with increasing frequency during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Persons should continue to monitor the latest weather information to see if a tropical
cyclone is forming and/or if a Flood Watch is posted for the local area. Have a plan
of action ready and above all...DO NOT drive in floodwater of an unknown depth. The
vast majority of deaths from flash floods occur when vehicles are driven into flooded
roads and the vehicle and its occupants are then swept away by swift deep water.
Further updates will be issued as necessary.
Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
Special Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
7:00 AM CDT Tuesday, July 25, 2006
...Tropical disturbance moving northward in the western Gulf of Mexico...
...Heavy rainfall expected over the next several days along the Texas Coast...
A tropical disturbance accompanied by a surface low pressure center of 1009 millibars
(29.80 inches) is located along the western Gulf Coast between Brownsville, Texas
and Tampico, Mexico. Movement is slowly northward at about 10 mph. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms...occasionally accompanied by gusty winds of
around 35 to 40 mph in a few squalls...are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico
extending northward to the Texas Coast near Matagorda Bay.
There has been little...if any...organization in this weather system since yesterday and
a scheduled U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flight was canceled Monday morning.
There is currently no plan to send a reconnaissance plane into this area today as
satellite pictures and radar observations indicate no evidence of a closed circulation
yet with the area of low pressure. However, upper level winds are slowly becoming
more favorable for slow development and a tropical depression or tropical storm may
form during the next 24 to 48 hours. Even if a tropical cyclone does form, the system
is now so close to land and expected to remain so, that only limited strengthening
would be possible before the system moves permanently inland.
The main impact of this weather system will be the threat of heavy rain along the Texas
Coast through Thursday. General rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with scattered totals of
4 to 6 inches and a few isolated totals of up to 10 inches will be possible along the
Texas Coast especially near and to the right of where the low pressure center moves.
Right now, it appears the low pressure center will track northward and move inland
between Corpus Christi and Galveston. However, you should not focus on an exact
track as embryonic systems such as this one are very disorganized and can send
heavy bands of precipitation over one area with very little rain only a few miles away.
As these bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms move onshore...there will likely be
a sudden but brief increase in winds with squalls of 30 to 40 mph...torrential rainfall...
and considerable cloud-to-ground lightning. Tropical funnel clouds and waterspouts
will also be possible mainly along the coast over the bays and Gulf of Mexico waters.
These usually only last for a few minutes and primarily occur in the hours between
sunrise and early afternoon. This repeating cycle of rain bands moving onshore will
occur with increasing frequency during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Persons should continue to monitor the latest weather information to see if a tropical
cyclone is forming and/or if a Flood Watch is posted for the local area. Have a plan
of action ready and above all...DO NOT drive in floodwater of an unknown depth. The
vast majority of deaths from flash floods occur when vehicles are driven into flooded
roads and the vehicle and its occupants are then swept away by swift deep water.
Further updates will be issued as necessary.
Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
0 likes
-
mvtrucking
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 698
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
- Location: Monroe,La
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Thunder44 wrote:senorpepr wrote:cycloneye wrote:But my question is,why they went back from 98L to 96L and not go ahead to 99L if this is a new invest for the general WGOM area?
99L would suggest a new system. This isn't a new system, but rather a new circulation. So to do models and graphics on both circulations (to provide both sides of the coin), they grabbed an old number -- 96.
I don't see another circulation at where they have 96L center at. Are they trying to leave the old center back and they trying to focus for a new center for 98L?
That's another possibility too. I don't see the circulation either; I'm just trying to come up with ideas behind NRL's methodology.
0 likes
-
Air Force Met
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
GalvestonDuck wrote:http://www.galveston.com/webcams/ and click on the Surf cam.
It's extremely choppy out there compared to yesterday evening. Guess I'll be spending my day off inside today.
Winds are pretty gusty out there too...
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/hgports/hgAllMET.html
0 likes
