98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#181 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:29 pm

The surface obs in S. Texas still do not indicate a LLC. Just a bunch of E and SE winds:

TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
VICTORIA PTCLDY 74 72 93 E7 29.90R
ROCKPORT CLOUDY 82 74 76 SE16 29.86S
*PORT ARANSAS MOCLDY 81 81 100 SE20G25 29.88R FOG HX 91
*PORT LAVACA PTCLDY 77 73 88 SE8 29.89R
CORPUS CHRISTI CLOUDY 79 75 89 E14 29.85S
CORPUS NAS SHOWER 80 75 84 SE18G24 29.83S
*ROBSTOWN CLOUDY 77 73 88 E7 29.85S
ALICE PTCLDY 80 72 76 E13 29.85R
KINGSVILLE NAS NOT AVBL
COTULLA MOCLDY 83 69 62 E14 29.86R
LAREDO MOCLDY 88 72 58 SE16 29.85R HX 94
$$

TXZ248>255-260400-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE CLOUDY 81 75 82 S12 29.84R
PORT ISABEL N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.85R
HARLINGEN CLOUDY 83 73 72 S16 29.83R
*HEBBRONVILLE CLOUDY 79 72 78 E8 29.87R
MCALLEN CLOUDY 83 76 79 E8 29.83R HX 91
*WESLACO N/A 82 77 83 S12 29.83R HX 91
FALFURRIAS PTCLDY 75 72 88 E3 29.84R
EDINBURG CLOUDY 81 73 78 E6 29.82S

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #182 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:30 pm

Yeah there is not likely to be a LLC based on those obs.

#183 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:31 pm

Josephine96 · #184 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:32 pm

Come on LLC :lol:

I wanna see another td/name get crossed off :lol:

Stratosphere747 · #185 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:33 pm

Lets hope that this just moves on North and gets out of here, hopefully bringing rains to the west and north in areas that need it..

What bothers me and after taking AFM's and 57's ideas in account, is how this system is acting tonight.

The history of this disturbance has been to lose the majority of its convection from early evening and throughout the night, and flaring up again towards the morning.

Tonight it has maintained the convection, and in the latest images, there is a tail so to speak on the outflow extending all the way down to the southern BOC and into the EPAC.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #186 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:33 pm

Believe me I went this to become Christ but its not likely. In becoming less with every moment.

#187 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Believe me I went this to become Christ but its not likely. In becoming less with every moment.

The name is Chris for the next storm, not Christ.

#188 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:36 pm

Won't be much rain on it's west side. Not with this type of system.

Josephine96 · #189 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:37 pm

LOL about becoming Christ.. :lol:

Sorry.. it just sounded funny when I read it :lol:

ROCK · #190 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:37 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Lets hope that this just moves on North and gets out of here, hopefully bringing rains to the west and north in areas that need it..

What bothers me and after taking AFM's and 57's ideas in account, is how this system is acting tonight.

The history of this disturbance has been to lose the majority of its convection from early evening and throughout the night, and flaring up again towards the morning.

Tonight it has maintained the convection, and in the latest images, there is a tail so to speak on the outflow extending all the way down to the southern BOC and into the EPAC.

So true, best dang disturbance I have ever seen..... :lol:

duirnal max is what around 4am......we could be waking up to a big mess....

#191 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:39 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Believe me I went this to become Christ but its not likely. In becoming less with every moment.

Why do you do that .

#192 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:41 pm

It is all semantics, just like that near-Beryl in late June, whether it gets a name. The impact will be the same whether it is TS Chris or an undesignated tropical low...

#193 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:46 pm

If this were to become Allison 2.0, I think it will do so as Tropical Depression 3 - it is too close to shore. It needs to move farther east to have enough time to become Chris.

#194 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:50 pm

CrazyC83, I disagree. The difference between a TD and a 35-40mph TS is not that much in terms of time or strength. I believe it has mainly to do with organization pattern. Many times the NHC skips depression and goes straight to TS at 35 or 40mph. Depends on recon and satellite presentation.

#195 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:52 pm

Many posters on this board are posting that time is running out on 98L but it sure doesn't seem like it's moving anywhere fast at the moment and still looks impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

#196 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:54 pm

I don't think time's running out. It's got a little time, and I think something will form here.

#197 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:55 pm

You are right Stormcenter it is a a slow crawl right now.

HouTXmetro · #198 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:55 pm

what are the chances a LLC could form even further east, like Cindy did?
There is another burst of convection blowing up near 27N and 95W

Kerry04 · #199 Postby **Kerry04** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:56 pm

Man I cant believe this thing is not a name storm i mean just look at it looks like it is getting its act together

vaffie · #200 Postby **vaffie** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:56 pm

It will be very interesting to watch this buoy overnight as it is almost in the center of the most powerful ball of convection ENE of Brownsville. It's pressure has dropped to 29.81 inches now. Usually, because of diurnal changes, the pressure rises and falls throughout the course of the day, but over the last few hours, this buoy's pressure variations have been changing so that whereas normally the pressure should have been rising for the last two or three hours, it has been holding steady--signalling perhaps a large pressure fall overnight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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