Hurricane Ioke thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I said that to form into a tropical storm in the central pacific.

[WmE]

Damn, Ioke looks stronger than that 100kt of the CPHC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the clearing of the eye and reds forming a 2/3 ring around the eye...85h showing 2/3 closed ring. SMISS.

2/3 red ring with soild Cdo and clear eye 115-120 knots.
2/3 soild ring of red on 85h data=100 to 105 knots...

Final my thinking winds are set to 110 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Intermediate update coming shortly. My estimate - 125 mph.

[JonathanBelles]

Intermediate update coming shortly. My estimate - 125 mph.

i wouldnt be suprised if it was higher but i am agreeing with you.

[WmE]

Intermediate update coming shortly. My estimate - 125 mph.

Why intermediate? I don't think they will isuue an intermediate advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Intermediate update coming shortly. My estimate - 125 mph.

Why intermediate? I don't think they will isuue an intermediate advisory.

Hurricane warning for Johnston Atoll. The policy is to issue intermediate advisories whenever a watch or warning is in effect. (Two are issued if an eye is clearly detectable on radar)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No intermediate for this. I say 130 knots like I said above. Just a little bit more red or a more soildly closed eye to push it to 115 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No one lives on johnson atoll. So no we will get are next update at 8pm pst/11pm est.

[WmE]

Intermediate update coming shortly. My estimate - 125 mph.

Why intermediate? I don't think they will isuue an intermediate advisory.

Hurricane warning for Johnston Atoll. The policy is to issue intermediate advisories whenever a watch or warning is in effect. (Two are issued if an eye is clearly detectable on radar)

Right but the johnston atoll is uninhabited, I think.

[WindRunner]

From the bottom of the public advisory:

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM HST.

$$

[WindRunner]

And here it is . . . no change.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
200 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AT 200 PM HST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.0 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM HST POSITION...13.4 N...167.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE/NASH/R BALLARD

[WmE]

Mmhh, i like crow.

[Derek Ortt]

the military base was closed down in 2003. There used to be about 1100 people on the island. Now, it is a wildlife refuge

[JonathanBelles]

115 mph?? i think thats low

[WmE]

115 mph?? i think thats low

Yes, I have to agree.

[Scorpion]

Wow, looks outstanding. I say 115 kts as of now, perhaps higher.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree...I say 110 to 115 knots. They will up it at there full forecast. They base there thinking on t numbers it seems like it. In they have not come in yet.

[CrazyC83]

Why aren't they sending a Recon out?

[WindRunner]

Why aren't they sending a Recon out?

It's not threatening land, and though it would probably be interesting to fly into, it's definately not worth the fuel cost (at this point) of flying out to Hawaii.