TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Stormcenter]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.

Good post but I don't see the shear going anywhere.

[Derek Ortt]

He's -removed-.

agreed 100% AFM. After last season, I had thought we had seen the end of that

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting new GFLD!!!

[Grease Monkey]

there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

How would you say that's hope?

He's -removed-.

He means there's better hope for Ernesto and Debby to finally meet.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Interesting new GFLD!!!

Care to share?

[fci]

there is hope, if the georiga low weakens the ridge and the system moves north!

how is that hope??

1. i ment hope for somthing to track

2. the islands should limit some devolpment if it comes for the USA.

Evil Jeremy:
Let's just call it like it is, from your posts:

You would like the thrill of a Hurricane or Tropical Storm to come your way.

There I said it for you.

It's OK, there are a lot of people who want a storm to come their way, for the thrill, the anticipation, late nights, school out etc....
Don't count me as one of them but I do not crucify you for feeling that way.

You make posts like this and then you "back and fill" and explain away your obvious thrill with a storm.

So, just admit it and move on...

[ConvergenceZone]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.

Good post but I don't see the shear going anywhere.

That means, that the last NHC discussion should be entirely re-written then, because it mentions the lessening of shear and it seemed more bullish than ever on the last discussion...I wonder who wrote that forecast up???

[Comanche]

if they are going to name this system, what time will it come out??

[Wthrman13]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.

The only thing I meant to imply by that statement was that the shear tendency dipole strongly implies that the shear axis is moving west *right now*. This is consistent with the model forecasts. It doesn't mean that it will hold true tomorrow. I didn't mean to imply that looking at shear tendency maps was a prediction tool, only that it's a diagnostic tool.

[jasons2k]

New GFDL pointing towards FL Panhandle for now instead of NE Texas area. I wonder if we will see an E trend, maybe due to the decrease in forward speed.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

NE Texas is a few hundred miles inland.

[Stormcenter]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yes, that shows more than 50kts of shear over the central Caribbean! Shear tendency analysis shows that shear has increased over 20kts there in the past day... TD5 MUST slow down if it is going to survive.

Yep, but if you look at the shear tendency map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

You can see a distinct dipole of shear tendency over the Caribbean, with decreasing shear near and just west of TD 5, and increasing shear in the western Caribbean. This suggest to me that the UL is indeed starting to move west, and taking the worst shear with it. If it does it fast enough, TD 5 may just make it.

With all due respect (and I do mean that sincerely), how are the shear tendency maps going to tell us what the shear is going to do TOMORROW, or the day after that. Last I saw, the NHC was forecasting the shear to diminish (although they did not state any high degree of confidence in it happening). Yes, shear has been a problem all season. But the TUTT does appear to be retreating. It's just not clear how quickly it will retreat. And with the TUTT retreating, I believe the shear will retreat as well. I agree that the shear may be a problem in the short term, but this storm seems a little persistent to me. I likewise think it may just hang in there and strengthen as it approaches the GoM.

Good post but I don't see the shear going anywhere.

That means, that the last NHC discussion should be entirely re-written then, because it mentions the lessening of shear and it seemed more bullish than ever on the last discussion...I wonder who wrote that forecast up???

I understand but the same sort of things were said with Chris and we all know what happened to him.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

The only thing I meant to imply by that statement was that the shear tendency dipole strongly implies that the shear axis is moving west *right now*. This is consistent with the model forecasts. It doesn't mean that it will hold true tomorrow. I didn't mean to imply that looking at shear tendency maps was a prediction tool, only that it's a diagnostic tool.

You can see this with the water vapor loop -- watch the ULL over Cuba and the whole TUTT axis shifting westward. The question is, will it shift westward faster than TD5.....?

[edited as per AFM's request below]

[Portastorm]

Wow. I leave the forum for several hours and the conjecture here has gone from "Ernesto-here-we-come" to "Look-at-me-I'm-Chris II."

This is like watching two kids on a teeter-totter.

[Air Force Met]

Guys....is it necessary to quote EVERY single poster every time when you "quote?"

If you need to in order to keep continuity for some discussion...that is fine. However, if you are just responding to one person or ONE item...take the extra 10 seconds and DELETE the rest. It makes it real hard to read the thread.

Thanks.

That is all.

[HouTXmetro]

2006 = Love Rollercoaster

[ConvergenceZone]

A link for those that don't have it -- Wind shear analysis: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
I understand but the same sort of things were said with Chris and we all know what happened to him.

oh well, that's okay. This season is extremely frustrating, but I"m sure there are plenty of very active less frustrating seasons in front of us...

[Noles2006]

Heh. This is far from frustrating for me, personally. After the last two years, I was hoping for a quiet season... and I've already got my storm fix with Alberto.

[Grease Monkey]

I don't think so because Alberto, Beryl, and Chris had no one to love. Ernesto and Debby on the other hand = love rollercoaster...

[southerngale]

What I think is amazing (and sorry for all of the posts here) is that we finally get something going but the TUTT JUST happens to move west this time and looks like will crush this thing as well.

Thank the TUTT lows of 2006 - they are amazing.

You had 4 posts in less than 6 minutes. You could try consolidating your thoughts into one post. And if you realize you want to add something, the Edit button is your friend. Just less posts for everyone to wade through.

Check out this thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88664

[Wthrman13]

Sorry, AFM. I thought about that after I posted.