Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[HurricaneBill]

Actually, to get a 10-min sustained wind of 120KT from JMA, a typhoon has to reach at least 8.0 on the Dvorak scale.

JMA has not given a typhoon an intensity of 120KT (10-min) since Super Typhoon Yuri in 1991.

[wxmann_91]

JMA has not given a typhoon an intensity of 120KT (10-min) since Super Typhoon Yuri in 1991.

How about Super Typhoon Gay and Angela?

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

[P.K.]

How about Super Typhoon Gay and Angela?

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

110kts, and 115kts respectively.

[Normandy]

So thats 5 meters=15 feet. The ob/station meteorologist, this could be a record by the looks of this storm. Its his or her job is to stay in keep record.

Personally, I'd say get them out of there and to safety.

Matt.
You are out of your effing mind.

Youd put a human being on an island to ride out one of the strongest typhoons on record, just so u can see a pressure reading and go "woo-hoo!"???

Astounding.

[P.K.]

Well they still seem to be producing TAFs. Pressure is down from 1006hPa to 1004hPa.

292224 292222 03025G35KT 9999 VCSH SCT020 BKN080 BKN250 QNH2964INS BECMG 0809 02028G40KT 8000 -SHRA BKN020 BKN080 OVC250 QNH2958INS BECMG 1718 01038G56KT 2400 SHRA BKN010 BKN020 OVC050 QNH2954INS T30/03Z T26/18Z LIMITED METWATCH 2922 TIL 3011=

[Bane]

So thats 5 meters=15 feet. The ob/station meteorologist, this could be a record by the looks of this storm. Its his or her job is to stay in keep record.

Matt, you have to be kidding. This is one of the most callous statements I've seen anywhere in some time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was not serious when I said that...Its most likely recored with on the new recording systems they got.

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 30 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 16.6N 171.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 18.2N 168.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 010000UTC 19.9N 165.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 020000UTC 21.7N 160.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing has got to be taken a heck of alot of heat out of the Atmosphere. Maybe thats why theres no cyclones any where else. This thing makes Katrina look weak.

[bostonseminole]

looks to me that the odds of a Japan hit are increasing

after Wake Island there is another small island on it track

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minami_Torishima

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So it has weather data on that island. As I'm reading that right...

[bostonseminole]

still looking for it

[curtadams]

In the case of CIMSS automated Dvorak, the reduction is apparently due to the size of the eye. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/01C-list.txt Temp parameters now are better than at 2006AUG27 020000 - but the eye was 17 miles rather than 33. Pressure is actually somewhat lower now. This isn't crazy - remember Wilma's peak winds were early in her life and got lower when she had a bigger eye.

[bostonseminole]

thi is going on 6 days now as a strong cat 4/5

[WindRunner]

Well, looks like JMA heard me as they bumped up the winds to 105kts. Still looking impressive.


Click to enlarge.

[bostonseminole]

29/2033 UTC 16.4N 171.4E T7.0/7.0 IOKE -- West Pacific Ocean

[bostonseminole]

this is going right over wake island ouch

[Hurritrax]

I hate to say it but Wake Island is toast......lucky they got everyone evacuated.....check out these pics. Not a whole lot of land there.

Click to enlarge each pic.

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 03:00 UTC 30 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 16.9N 170.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 18.5N 167.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 010000UTC 19.9N 165.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 020000UTC 21.7N 160.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT

[bostonseminole]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2006 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 16:52:52 N Lon : 170:49:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 924.0mb/119.8kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : +17.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF