Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

HurricaneHunter914 · #181 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:57 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Water north of Cuba is certainly warm enough for strengthening/regeneration.

#182 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:57 am

The straits of florida are unlike ANY water area. They have the ability to explode storms. So even if there is a little left of ernie... i'm getting prepared. Like max mayfield most famous quote. He is terrified of people going to bed prepared for a cat1 and waking up to a cat5 at their door.

Just think into history the storms that have exploded here.....

#183 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:58 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Water north of Cuba is certainly warm enough for strengthening/regeneration.

I agree, and the shear is expected to remain low. That means that even if Ernesto dies over Cuba, he has a good chance of resurrection over water...and that could be more dangerous as it could easily fool people.

#184 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:59 am

That's the big question, will it make it past Cuba.

#185 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:59 am

Take a look at the 18km high resolution fsu mm5 for 00z...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d2.track.png

its crossing cuba Awfully quick!
-Eric

#186 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:59 am

ericinmia wrote:The straits of florida are unlike ANY water area. They have the ability to explode storms. So even if there is a little left of ernie... i'm getting prepared. Like max mayfield most famous quote. He is terrified of people going to bed prepared for a cat1 and waking up to a cat5 at their door.

Just think into history the storms that have exploded here.....

Correct. That is why I think Florida will be hit (or brushed to the east) by a solid hurricane even if Cuba weakens Ernesto to a tropical depression.

#187 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:00 am

The models are trending east from the last run. If I were anyone in the state of florida I would be getting read whether this storm is or is not currently well developed. You never know what is going to happen and to take it lightly is irresponsible.

#188 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:00 am

It could also miss the State to the east as well, it's possible.

#189 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:01 am

It looks like the best case track...also strengthens Ernesto the most (following the Gulf Stream). That could strengthen him into a strong hurricane easily. Quite ironic to say the least...

Droop12 · #190 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:01 am

If Im seeing right on the radar from gitmo, Ernie is moving due west at the moment.

#191 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:03 am

Droop12 wrote:If Im seeing right on the radar from gitmo, Ernie is moving due west at the moment.

The mm5 does that with him, then jumps him north almost across cuba and then into florida...

#192 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:04 am

ericinmia wrote:
Droop12 wrote:If Im seeing right on the radar from gitmo, Ernie is moving due west at the moment.

The mm5 does that with him, then jumps him north almost across cuba and then into florida...

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

HurricaneJim · #193 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:04 am

Water south of FL...yup. Andrew....

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

#194 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:04 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 52W_sm.gif

Droop12 · #195 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:05 am

I wonder how fast he'll make it over Cuba though? If its around 6 hours he may have a chance at surviving.

#196 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:05 am

Here is the LOW resolution run i was talking about. Usually the 18k high resolution is MUCH more precise and on target... but it hasn't finished running..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d1.track.png

HurricaneJim · #197 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:06 am

Here's that Navy WAM link again...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Droop12 · #198 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:07 am

I take back what I said about motion, its mostly NW, I was looking at it wrong.

stormtruth · #199 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:11 am

With the 2AM spotting from the NHC it almost looks like it could spend hardly anytime at all over Cuba. That would not be good news for SE Florida -- unless it misses Florida completely.

#200 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:12 am

Droop12 wrote:I take back what I said about motion, its mostly NW, I was looking at it wrong.

Hey. Would it be okay if I can see a link to that Gitmo radar that you are looking at. That would be appreciated. Thanx

<RICKY>

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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