Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

bellavista2 · #181 Postby **bellavista2** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:31 am

Is that somewhat swirling mass of "stuff" something that those of
us in Northern Bahamas should be worried about.
Doesn't seem to be discussed on the TWO

#182 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:45 am

The swirl is in some dry air and not expected to develop for a while at least.

Sanibel · #183 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:19 pm

I think this wave is deceptive and will develop. This wave was deep yesterday with dark IR. Ernesto did the same thing. He formed but then lost convection only to redevelop near the islands. I think this one is in the same mid-Atlantic negative spot but will recover and develop like Ernesto did near the islands.

Keep watching this wave.

#184 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:47 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
This wave may be in some dry air but, it is not imbedded in Saharan Dust.

If we were watching it saying well... It's imbedded in Dust it will limit convection.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html
Looking at Mid Level Water Vapor it appears to be in a moist environment in the mid levels.

http://tinyurl.com/pgru9
The wave is not looking too bad and still has convection. We may have to watch this one more closely in a couple of days.

Persistent convection is the key and we seem to have that with the wave.

Also we'll have to watch that wave with the 1013mb low. If it can loose the dust we may have a problem.

perk · #185 Postby **perk** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:48 pm

Sanibel you're probably right, but Ernesto did so many things i just can't remember them all. One thing i'm pretty sure of, there's probably more than a couple meteorologists in therapy because of him. :eek:

jhamps10 · #186 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:55 pm

or a couple of mets who are in a state of shock over Ernesto, I mean he confused everyone and I think the NHC is included in this list too.

But anyway, I do have a feeling that in a few days we will have florence, and who knows, with the way the Caribbean and the gulf is, we may have a major next week. the convection is continuing, unlike the first one, which imo is flushing out the dry air in front of the first wave (ITCZ stuff). which in turn leads to a better enviroment for this wave.

BensonTCwatcher · #187 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:02 pm

You know being in the Carolinas, I ain't much on "F" storms Fran and Floyd...I went through Super Typhoon Flo on Okinawa 185kt winds....Let's hope this is an off "F" year here

jhamps10 · #188 Postby **jhamps10** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:59 pm

TWO:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N.
ITS MOVEMENT AND POSITION HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN DURING THE LAST
DAY OR TWO BECAUSE IT WAS MORE THAN A BIT DIFFICULT TO TRACK IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE ARE FOLLOWING A FEW THINGS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION.
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 31W AND 35W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

calculatedrisk · #189 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:21 pm

Dr. Masters had some comments this AM on the recent flare-ups in the mid-Atlantic:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=491&tstamp=200608

An tropical wave near 12N 34W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has a pronounced surface circulation one can see in QuikSCAT satellite data from 3:52am EDT this morning. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, and any development should be slow to occur. The thunderstorm activity associated with this wave was being enhanced yesterday by a process known as upper-level divergence. When the the winds at high levels diverge (blow outward from a common center), then air from the surface must rise to fill the vacuum created. As this surface air rises, the moisture in it condenses, fueling thunderstorms. Thunderstorms created by this mechanism make a tropical disturbance look more impressive than it really is. The wave has moved away from this area of upper divergence, reducing the amount of thunderstorm activity.

Current Meteosat-8. Ernesto looked like this until around 40W, so its possible something could emerge.

Patrick99 · #190 Postby **Patrick99** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:16 pm

What about that swirl at 18/45, firing intermittent convection around the center....seems to be moving WSW?

Meso · #191 Postby **Meso** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:49 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 302058
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Sanibel · #192 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:37 pm

I'm watching the one at 32W. It has a curved look to it without convection.

#193 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:06 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IS ELONGATED AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RATHER MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED...THEREFORE ANY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Above is the 8 PM discussion for this wave.It has a long way to go in terms of development.

#194 Postby **tgenius** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:25 pm

So basically neither of the two systems in the Eastern Atlantic will become invests any time soon? I mean what are we talking, a week? 3 days?

HurricaneHunter914 · #195 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:27 pm

Hopefully, if this does become Flroence it WON'T be another Frances.

#196 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:32 pm

Patrick99 wrote:What about that swirl at 18/45, firing intermittent convection around the center....seems to be moving WSW?

If that taps into the moisture down along the ITCZ and is able to pull some of it northward it may be something to watch once it gets west of 50w IMO.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #197 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:35 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Meso · #198 Postby **Meso** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:49 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR

Sanibel · #199 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:53 am

Entire Atlantic Basin is busted flat as far a conditions. Everything is dry and most convection has dissipated. The exact opposite of last year.

Negative-ville...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #200 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:55 am

If you have super faverable then you have unfaverable.

Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

North of PR/East of Bahamas

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