Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[DESTRUCTION5]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

I agree on the center reformation. There's no LLC I can find at present over Cuba. Satellite indicates a clear MLC along the northern Cuba coast. I'm sure the LLC will reform up there in the next 6-12 hours.

My gut feeling is that Ernesto may miss Florida to the east then pull a Dennis of 1999, blocked by high pressure and stalled for days while intensifying off the Carolinas.

Thm are some bold predictions considering it was haded to TX 2 days ago...How can you possibly come up with that scenario?

Trend keeps going farther east. Are we sure the trend won't continue?

Well GFS (iknow you hate it) and NOGAPs actually came a bit further W..With Dropsones..

[THead]

2PM NHC position from their latest advisory:

Looks NW to me......if that's really where it is.......it would actually make sense, has to start getting some West in his course. Also, if that's really where it is, I'm going to be soon persuaded to join the "cuba is gonna kill ernie" camp. One can hope.

[MWatkins]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

Tony I was just going to ask you about that in the radar thread before I ran into your post in here...are you seeing that band that is strecthed west to east on the northeast coast as 12:50 or so...because that seems to be lining up with wth what we're seeing in the hi-res visible...

Just curious...my eyes are tired and may be playing tricks on me.

MW

[cpdaman]

this is poorly defined and if that is where the center is i hope it reform cause if not there is nothing going on there for a while at least 6pm and if it were to bend to about a 310 degree heading it could be after midnight till it comes offshore

[Normandy]

That NHC forecast position looks dubious, because looking at a vis loop I see no surface circulation there.

Ernesto may be an open wave now.

[CrazyC83]

Has anyone noticed that this storm seems to shift it's center at will in order to stay over it's "Food Source" ?

Latest pass has it morphing just off the tip of the island and now there's a whole bunch of convection starting to wrap in from the NE.

It still seems to be hungry and it's headed towards the "Horn of Plenty"

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

It seems you might be right. Ernesto has been fooling us at every move...I'm guessing somewhere in Cuba reported sustained TS winds as they held it at 40mph...

[ConvergenceZone]

hey wxman,
what do you think about the below in the 2:00 pm discussion? It looks to me like the center will be moving off the coast much faster, but they say, maybe as late as tonight? do you agree with this??


"Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight."

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ridge vs. weakness and "pumping" effect the trough will have on the backside will be interesting to watch.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

I can see this getting pulled into the coast more if the ridge erodes more. One thing to note is the speed vs track. This could outrun the forecast steering currents, or wait them out and in that case ( not that unusual)

I think the scenario of a trapping by by the ridge is plausible from a synoptic set up standpoint, but my gut says the setup won't follow that way. TAFB has a track that is disconcerting 72 hours out, and given the skilll in forecasting intensity, this could be much stronger.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

Of course this is all GFS, but any stalling on this track will make this a very costly storm for the US

[fwbbreeze]

If Ernesto were to open back up into a wave, which way would the remnants head?

[Grease Monkey]

Has anyone noticed that this storm seems to shift it's center at will in order to stay over it's "Food Source" ?

Latest pass has it morphing just off the tip of the island and now there's a whole bunch of convection starting to wrap in from the NE.

It still seems to be hungry and it's headed towards the "Horn of Plenty"

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

I was watchign the TWC 2pm update and they were saying that the center is west of the majority of the convection still over cuba.

[AJC3]

Radar seems to be hinting at a possible attempt at center reformation in progress in the Bahia Sagua de Tanamo, just east of Punta de Mula and the city of Holguin. Surface obs show very weak winds and a system that has been beaten up pretty badly.

However, if this is actually occurring, it will probably wind up as a worst-case scenario intensity-wise, giving Ernie additional time to recover.

Tony I was just going to ask you about that in the radar thread before I ran into your post in here...are you seeing that band that is strecthed west to east on the northeast coast as 12:50 or so...because that seems to be lining up with wth what we're seeing in the hi-res visible...

Just curious...my eyes are tired and may be playing tricks on me.

MW

Well, it looks like whatever LLC that was over land has dissipated in the mountains for the time being. METARs indicate that this is more of an open wave at the surface - however, I think this is only for the moment.
Given the conditions aloft, proxmity to warm water north of Cuba, operationally IMHO it necessitates treating it as a viable TC unless there is further deterioration in the convection/vort structure.

I think the downward trend will be very short lived from here on out as a center tries to take shape just off the northeast coast. After all this system has a history of doing just that.

[WxGuy1]

Tricky analysis (as others have noted)... The strongest convection (evidenced by coldest cloud tops on IR) seems to continue to redevelop just south of the far eastern tip of Cuba. If the center of circulation is relocating to the northern Cuba coast, it isn't accompanied by much in the way of convection it seems. There appears to be a small high / anticyclone near the Cayman islands, as can be seen in moderately strong anticyclonic rotation to mid-level clouds near the islands (best seen on IR), though I don't think this is having a significant impact on Ernesto. Some convection did fire NW of the center a little while ago, as the impact from the vort max / ULL to the N of the storm pulls away. UWisc upper-level wind shear product indicates that such shear is quite weak over Ernesto right now (less than 10kts, with areas less than 5kts); mid-level shear continues to persist to the east of the center, with satellite analysis indicating an upper-level/midlevel anticyclone to the southeast of Ernesto.

[storms in NC]

IMHO It will miss East fla and ride up the coast and come into south of wilm the Capefear river. It alway does. But My hope are to just go out to sea but we know that is not going to happen. I think by the 5PM update you will see it go back to the west some and not to the east. I think that is a little to far east where they have it now. Just my two cents worth

[gatorcane]

Thanks pro mets - great analysis and I always like to read your thoughts...

[wxman57]

Well GFS (iknow you hate it) and NOGAPs actually came a bit further W..With Dropsones..

You won't find one post of mine bashing the GFS's track into south Florida Friday or Saturday. Not generally too fond of NOGAPS, though.

[Kludge]

That NHC forecast position looks dubious, because looking at a vis loop I see no surface circulation there.

Ernesto may be an open wave now.

...And if it's an open wave, wouldn't it tend to resume a more westward course? I can't remember ever seeing a tropical wave moving north or east.

[ConvergenceZone]

IMHO It will miss East fla and ride up the coast and come into south of wilm the Capefear river. It alway does. But My hope are to just go out to sea but we know that is not going to happen. I think by the 5PM update you will see it go back to the west some and not to the east. I think that is a little to far east where they have it now. Just my two cents worth

I agree with ya...Just keep an eye on it since you aren't too far from the path of it...but I'm sure you already know that.

[Normandy]

That NHC forecast position looks dubious, because looking at a vis loop I see no surface circulation there.

Ernesto may be an open wave now.

...And if it's an open wave, wouldn't it tend to resume a more westward course? I can't remember ever seeing a tropical wave moving north or east.

Well thats complicated because its not ur run of the mill open wave, it still has good vorticity.

[wxman57]

hey wxman,
what do you think about the below in the 2:00 pm discussion? It looks to me like the center will be moving off the coast much faster, but they say, maybe as late as tonight? do you agree with this??


"Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight."

There's no trackable LLC to estimate a forward speed on. Would the NHC upgrade something so poorly-organized to a TD? They just can never let go of a storm.

[Blown Away]

The NHC track is E of all the models??
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html