TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[tronbunny]

Looking at more SAT pics it is quite a bit of a sharp WNW turn that we are seeing now and it almost looks like it is beelining WNW in tandem with the UL to the northwest of it (as somebody else mentioned)....

I think a shift left to the tracks at 11:00 is in store with the line over SW Florida (near naples)....however....Ernesto is quickly running out of time to become anything.....he is dying right now.

That's the best possible scenario on which to go to bed....

[Evil Jeremy]

who thinks that we can say goodby to the Hurricane Watches?

[gatorcane]

the only thing that I think about is that the NHC says a NW movement *should* resume shortly..I wonder why they think that. I don't see any evidence of that.

[tgenius]

the only thing that I think about is that the NHC says a NW movement *should* resume shortly..I wonder why they think that. I don't see any evidence of that.

My only thing is I give em props for what they said was center of circ when it was over land when everyone thought it was to the east of cuba.. so maybe they see something we don't?

[DESTRUCTION5]

the only thing that I think about is that the NHC says a NW movement *should* resume shortly..I wonder why they think that. I don't see any evidence of that.

I dont think there is a Circulation...Thus the wnw movement...or appearance of one anyway

[wxwonder12]

how long has E actually been going wnw???

[cinlfla]

I do, He looks pretty darn crappy right not. I know he could look a lot different in the morning but seriously he looks like he's just about ready to have the fork stuck in him.

[Stormavoider]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

It looks like a TD not even a storm. Alberto makes Ernesto look like Katrina.

Go here:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Go to any of the buoys in the keys, click on the graph for atmospheric pressure. You will find current pressures lower than anything in 5 days. The wind directions are all consistent with a possible Ernie influence. I would guess if you look in any direction from Ernie you will See the stage is preset. Just add an open water center and I think we have real trouble.

My previous post on this thread still reflects my feelings.

[gatorcane]

Okay let me explain what is happening and why the WNW movement now. Based on the WV loop, the ridge of Hi pressure over the SE US is actually holding very strong, stronger than the models I think saw it earlier today. The shortwave trough in the midwest is having a tougher timer pushing eroding the ridge in the SE US. There is a "clear" path between the UL and the western GOM and the ridge for Ernesto to move WNW for sometime and as it weakens it won't have a tendency to go poleward.

I actually think it still has a decent shot of getting in the SE GOM.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[pcwick]

How can this thing possibly be a cat 1 with it staying over land this long?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I find it interesting to study the tracks of many other storms that have interacted with Cuba and then gone on to become significant storms. I'm not making the case that Ernesto will follow the same track as Frederick or any other storm, but only that land interaction with Cuba alone is not enough data to conclude that a storm will die.

Below, interaction with Cuba begins about line 35 after a long interaction across Hispanolia. Note that each line represents six hours. I picked Frederic because it is a dramatic example. There are many other examples. In fact, in the last thrity-five years, I only saw two cyclones that were snuffed out by Cuba.

Code: Select all

Date: 29 AUG-15 SEP 1979
Hurricane FREDERIC
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  11.00  -25.50 08/29/06Z   25  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  2  11.10  -28.00 08/29/12Z   30  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  3  11.20  -30.50 08/29/18Z   30  1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  4  11.30  -32.50 08/30/00Z   30  1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  5  11.40  -34.20 08/30/06Z   30  1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  6  11.50  -36.00 08/30/12Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  7  11.60  -37.80 08/30/18Z   40  1003 TROPICAL STORM
  8  11.70  -39.70 08/31/00Z   45  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  9  11.80  -41.60 08/31/06Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
 10  11.90  -43.50 08/31/12Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
 11  12.00  -45.10 08/31/18Z   55   991 TROPICAL STORM
 12  12.50  -47.00 09/01/00Z   60   988 TROPICAL STORM
 13  12.90  -48.70 09/01/06Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
 14  13.30  -50.40 09/01/12Z   65   988 HURRICANE-1
 15  13.80  -52.30 09/01/18Z   65   990 HURRICANE-1
 16  14.30  -54.10 09/02/00Z   60   992 TROPICAL STORM
 17  14.90  -55.50 09/02/06Z   60   994 TROPICAL STORM
 18  15.50  -57.20 09/02/12Z   60   996 TROPICAL STORM
 19  16.30  -58.80 09/02/18Z   55   999 TROPICAL STORM
 20  16.70  -59.80 09/03/00Z   55  1002 TROPICAL STORM
 21  17.10  -60.80 09/03/06Z   55  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 22  17.50  -61.80 09/03/12Z   50   999 TROPICAL STORM
 23  17.80  -62.80 09/03/18Z   50  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 24  18.00  -63.80 09/04/00Z   50  1002 TROPICAL STORM
 25  18.10  -64.80 09/04/06Z   45  1003 TROPICAL STORM
 26  18.10  -65.80 09/04/12Z   45  1004 TROPICAL STORM
 27  18.10  -66.80 09/04/18Z   45  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 28  18.00  -67.80 09/05/00Z   45  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 29  17.50  -68.70 09/05/06Z   45  1007 TROPICAL STORM
 30  17.40  -69.20 09/05/12Z   40  1008 TROPICAL STORM
 31  17.80  -69.60 09/05/18Z   40  1007 TROPICAL STORM
 32  18.50  -69.90 09/06/00Z   40  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 33  19.40  -70.70 09/06/06Z   35  1005 TROPICAL STORM
 34  19.90  -71.80 09/06/12Z   35  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 35  20.00  -73.00 09/06/18Z   30  1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 36  20.10  -74.50 09/07/00Z   30  1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 37  20.30  -75.80 09/07/06Z   25  1006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 38  20.60  -77.00 09/07/12Z   25  1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 39  20.90  -78.00 09/07/18Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 40  21.10  -78.70 09/08/00Z   30  1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 41  21.30  -79.30 09/08/06Z   30  1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 42  21.50  -79.80 09/08/12Z   30  1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 43  21.60  -80.50 09/08/18Z   30  1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 44  21.70  -81.00 09/09/00Z   35  1001 TROPICAL STORM
 45  21.80  -81.50 09/09/06Z   40  1000 TROPICAL STORM
 46  21.90  -82.00 09/09/12Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM
 47  22.00  -82.50 09/09/18Z   50   997 TROPICAL STORM
 48  22.40  -83.00 09/10/00Z   55   995 TROPICAL STORM
 49  22.70  -83.30 09/10/06Z   60   992 TROPICAL STORM
 50  22.80  -83.60 09/10/12Z   65   990 HURRICANE-1
 51  23.00  -83.80 09/10/18Z   70   987 HURRICANE-1
 52  23.30  -84.00 09/11/00Z   75   985 HURRICANE-1
 53  23.80  -84.40 09/11/06Z   80   983 HURRICANE-1
 54  24.40  -84.80 09/11/12Z   85   980 HURRICANE-2
 55  25.00  -85.20 09/11/18Z   95   968 HURRICANE-2
 56  25.70  -85.80 09/12/00Z  100   960 HURRICANE-3
 57  26.50  -86.40 09/12/06Z  110   952 HURRICANE-3
 58  27.40  -87.00 09/12/12Z  115   943 HURRICANE-4
 59  28.40  -87.70 09/12/18Z  115   950 HURRICANE-4
 60  29.70  -88.00 09/13/00Z  115   946 HURRICANE-4
 61  30.80  -88.50 09/13/06Z   95   955 HURRICANE-2
 62  32.20  -88.70 09/13/12Z   65   975 HURRICANE-1
 63  34.00  -88.00 09/13/18Z   45   985 TROPICAL STORM
 64  35.20  -87.00 09/14/00Z   40   990 TROPICAL STORM
 65  37.00  -84.50 09/14/06Z   35   996 TROPICAL STORM
 66  39.50  -81.00 09/14/12Z   35   997 TROPICAL STORM
 67  42.50  -76.00 09/14/18Z   30   998 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
 68  48.00  -68.00 09/15/00Z   30   988 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

Code: Select all

Permission to make free access of this data and documentation
were provided by Dr. Robert Sheets - director of NHC and by Mr. Neal Lott
of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC.  Questions
regarding the format and/or errors in the documentation/data should be
directed to Chris Landsea (landsea@downdry.atmos.colostate.edu).

[marcane_1973]

Who wants to be the 1st to say Ernesto is done? As in Cuba got him...

I do. Ernestos center was never healthy to begin with. Conditions were never really that favorable in that region from the get go so what do you expect. This was a weakling from the start and now to his finish. Steve Lyons i think your right. Tomorrow morning we will all wake up to a depression or maybe not even that.

[RickyR]

wxman57, pardon my question, but what are the arrows pointing to, or what do they mean?
Thanks, Ricky

[Patrick99]

If it becomes anything at this point, I'll be surprised. This looks like a depression, and a weak one at that. Frankly, I'm suffering from depression just looking at it. I'm going to stop looking at this sickly system and check in on it come morning.

[Sanibel]

Don't worry about the center. It has enough convection to reform.

What I'm worried about is the track moving west towards (us).

[Damar91]

Who wants to be the 1st to say Ernesto is done? As in Cuba got him...

I do. Ernestos center was never healthy to begin with. Conditions were never really that favorable in that region from the get go so what do you expect. This was a weakling from the start and now to his finish. Steve Lyons i think your right. Tomorrow morning we will all wake up to a depression or maybe not even that.

Me too. Stick a fork in this one. Glad I didn't wait in all those lines today!

[krisj]

I want to know that if the track moves west and spends more time in Fl, then does the intensity for SC go down significantly? It seems there wouldn't be much time in the Atlantic for it to reginerate.

[miamicanes177]

He was pointing out the CONU model

[johngaltfla]

Who wants to be the 1st to say Ernesto is done? As in Cuba got him...

Not me. GFDL is projecting it to leave Cuba around 0800 EDT, then intensify before heading towards Florida. So if you want me to cry "Storm Cancel" fawgetaboudit....

[tgenius]

so new runs of GFDL actually still have em over Cuba right now? Do any other 18z models currently still have em over cuba?

[RickyR]

He was pointing out the CONU model

Thanks, I don't like that one, can he point to the yellow one instead?
I'd prefer to be on the south side of the storm.
Ricky