TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[Bgator]

Heavy rains in Miami right now, some gusts to... a Squall....Rain Train seems to be forming through broward/dade...

[Blown Away]

I'm glad Ernesto is a minimal TS, when it is all said and done this will be the 4th tropical system to pass within 20 miles of my house in less than 2 years. Just got a $1000. increase in my insurance last week, which is on top of $700. increase last year. I love the tropics but it's becoming an expensive hobby.
Frances- Direct hit, Jeanne- 10 miles to N, Wilma- 18 miles to S, Ernesto- @20 miles W

[tampastorm]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

[fci]

big problems guys....center is actually on the eastern side of the NHC guidance (I hope it doesn't make it into the Atlantic anytime-soon)..thunderstorms and showers are blowing up now - looking alot better....

I'm getting ready to receive some big-time squalls in about 1-2 hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Why is this a big problem?

[jasons2k]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

It a meso vortex in the very broad center and it's an illusion

[fci]

there are alot of new burst going on, prepare for major flooding tonight.

I think you are being an alarmist again.

"Major" flooding????

[tampastorm]

Sorry still dont see it, but I will take your word. Thanks

[TampaFl]

It appears it is moving wnw. Check out this loop with the track overlay & you can see a small closed center near the end of the loop moving west north west. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[Wthrman13]

I'm not sure where this idea that Katrina intensified over the FL Everglades came from. It in fact weakened to a tropical storm. What did happen is that its inner core remained well defined. However, the surface winds decreased quite a bit. It certainly did not intensify.

What are u talking about, winds didnt decreased quite a bit? It held its intensity pretty good. Also no one said it intensify over land. Where where u during the storm?

An excerpt from the TPC Tropical Cyclone Report on Katrina:

"While not discernible in conventional satellite imagery, a well-defined eye became evident on the Miami National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D Doppler radar just prior to landfall on the southeastern Florida coast. In fact, the eye feature actually became better defined while Katrina moved inland, and it remained intact during its entire track across the peninsula. The convective pattern of Katrina as it crossed southern Florida was rather asymmetric due to northerly wind shear, which placed the strongest winds and heaviest rains south and east of the center in Miami-Dade County. Katrina continued west-southwestward overnight and spent only about six hours over land, mostly over the water-laden Everglades. Surface observations and velocity estimates from the Miami and Key West Doppler radars indicated that Katrina weakened over mainland Monroe County to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots. The center of Tropical Storm Katrina then emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at approximately 0500 UTC on 26 August just north of Cape Sable."

Ok, maybe "quite a bit" was an exaggeration in my original post.

[wxman57]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

There are emails going around of a double center on Ernesto, but it could be that the center is now elongated north-south and rotating cyclonically. You may be looking at the westward motion of the top lobe. But the storm, itself, is moving northwest.

[THead]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[storms in NC]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

It a meso vortex in the very broad center and it's an illusion

This is very true. I see a lot that don;t know this. Will I will leave this to you till the AM. Then I will see how much to the east or west they move it.

Good nite all have fun. Fla people besafe

[tampastorm]

It appears it is moving wnw. Check out this loop with the track overlay & you can see a small closed center near the end of the loop moving west north west. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

once again I agee,lol.

[storms in NC]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

There are emails going around of a double center on Ernesto, but it could be that the center is now elongated north-south and rotating cyclonically. You may be looking at the westward motion of the top lobe. But the storm, itself, is moving northwest.

Read this from a pro met. They say NW

[marcane_1973]

I live in NC and we had more rain than most locations in Florida today. We had thunderstorms that rolled through off the mountains this evening with wind gusts 35-40 mph. This Ernesto storm is a joke. I love the NHC but in my opinion Mr. Ernesto is nowhere near a TS.

[tampastorm]

It looks like in this radar that the center is Due east of Marathon moving due West.

http://tinyurl.com/old2f

100% agree more west then north. Where are ppl seeing north movement?

I see WNW.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[Deathray]

I too clearly see a more Western direction occuring. You can see the center, and the entire storm moving in that direction...

I guess time will tell, maybe this is just temporary, but the storm seems quite happy with this path. Also, the storm looks to be getting a lot more organized?

[chrisnnavarre]

Looking at all radar plots that I can find... storm is moving NW or WNW and will exit latter tonight into the EGOM. Of course unless he finally decides to move due N, which I have not seen him do yet. Actually the overall shape of the entire storm is angled to the NW. So this is moving NW presently.

[skysummit]

Is anyone at all receiving any winds from this yet? The highest wind I can find from metar data is from KHST south of Miami and it's only 16mph.

[Trugunzn]

Its moving nw not wnw. Looks like wnw because the weakening old center is spining around the new one.