TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[storms in NC]

WxGuy1 what do you think this storm will do?

[BensonTCwatcher]

I thought the center was several miles west of Fort Peirce.

Looking at radar, I'd put it about 35 miles west of Vero Beach or Fort Peirce. It's still a little ways inland, and it looks like the solid convection surrounding the west and south side of the circulation is expanding but becoming less defined. Curved bands to the east look pretty good, but I'd say the 'inner core' looks less defined than it did a couple hours ago. It really doesn't look like Ernesto has moved any to the east lately, with either a due northerly or slightly just west of due northerly motion this afternoon.

I agree, it looks to me like the central circ. is still "tilted" west. If that ever stacks up, would you agree it will "spin up" ( I think the dry air to the east/SE will get moisted up and be lass of a factor)

[otowntiger]

Wow just got jhome and seeing this!



If that convection and outflow holds well by the time it leaves land it has a good chance of develope into hurricane.

Looks like Orlando is going to get a pretty good back handed slap of thunderstorms right about the rush hour. That convection is really firing up and looking more ominous.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm about to get a squall line, so I may be offline whne it starts to rain.

[Trugunzn]

Convection is getting bigger and bigger:

[ronjon]

Wow, this thing is getting stronger over land! A huge convective burst, wrap around convection spiraling around a center - this isn't supposed to happen over land - what gives?? As far as track, I don't see a sharp right hand turn looking at the upper air pattern at least over the next 6 hrs - I think it moves north to Orlando and then moves NE out into the Atlantic.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[krisj]

WOW, check this out


[img]ftp://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/volcano/bh/Tom/Ern-G10-zm-vis.gif[/img]

What is that a pic of? Never saw that before.

[Trugunzn]

WOW, check this out


[img]ftp://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/volcano/bh/Tom/Ern-G10-zm-vis.gif[/img]

What is that a pic of? Never saw that before.

Its TD Ernesto's convection blowing up over florida.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Cheeep Cheeep Cheeep Cheeeep.

That's the sound of crickets....I wonder why I can hear them...


Oh, it's because there's no one yelling "Ernesto is dead"

[SCMedic]

That would be the big western circulation blow up of Ernie...Thunderstorms popping.

[Trugunzn]

Nice classic "S" look:

[krisj]

That would be the big western circulation blow up of Ernie...Thunderstorms popping.

Wow, that is so cool! I've never seen anything quite like that before.

[WxGuy1]

Tough to determine how tilted the circulation is given that we can only compare radar to surface obs. Actually, I shouldn't say that -- we can compare various radar scan elevations, but my comparison isn't very conclusive. Unfortunately, there isn't much in the way of surface obs near the center of circulation at this time:


CLICK HERE if the image above is not displaying.

The red square on there gives my prelim center based on tracing reflectivity echoes. Velocity images from the MLB radar would indicate that the center is slightly east of that location, but I'm sticking with the red square location.

Speaking of radial velocity data, the decay of the strong convective band that had persisted across Highlands and Glades counties has resulted in a weakening of winds on the west side of the circulation. Where before the MLB radar was indicating a rather large area of >43kt winds, winds are now down to the 31-35kt range (the radar beam is about 6000 feet above ground at that range). Ernesto was looking surprisingly good given it's initial landfall appearance up until about 45 minutes ago, when that solid convective band began to fall apart.

I haven't looked at much in terms of forecast path, so I'll refrain from commenting on that. I do continue to think that Ernesto will not strengthen beyond a Tropical Storm before it's next landfall (assuming it does make another landfall). Again, I'll go with my probability forecast:

My forecast intensity probabilities for southeastern US landfall:
TD: 30%
TS: 60%
Cat 1: 10%

[Thunder44]

WOW, check this out

What is that a pic of? Never saw that before.

Its TD Ernesto's convection blowing up over florida.

It's a close-up visible loop of high cloud tops blowing up from thunderstorms. It looks more impressive because there is an image in loop run every minute.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Tornado Warning just south of ORlando.

[storms in NC]

It is about 20 miles or less from Vero Beach

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thanks WxGuy1 very informative.

[SCMedic]

My completely uneducated, self taught, gut feeling forecast... (which is like playing roulette)....


Strong TS at landfall in the Charleston Area... 80%
Cat 1.... 20%

Gut says you can almost rule out a TD landfall due to the obvious good structure, continued convective bursts, and the gulf stream. Not to mention it looks to be exiting the florida coast a bit sooner than expected...

[ronjon]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FLC097-302015-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-060830T2015Z/
OSCEOLA FL-
333 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 332 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SHOWER WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH
OF DEER PARK...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
5 MILES NORTH OF HOLOPAW BY 350 PM
HARMONY BY 400 PM EDT

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[Josephine96]

Nice rain band going through now.. Think it's my 2nd rain band today.. Being vigilant with the tornado warning off to my east..