TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Stormavoider]

I think it may have peaked already. I can not find nearly as high buoy winds as earlier. The last recon passes did not seem as high either.

[artist]

windnrian - i am sure there are other factors involved, not just the water temps.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Advisory center fixes since Ernie left FL.

[...map removed, see above...]

Note that soon the center will be leaving the gulf stream and moving over slightly cooler shelf waters. May slow the current strenghtening trend some.

Wow, great map and analysis!

Although it will be leaving 30°C+ waters for cooler 28-29°C waters, wouldn't that still be enough to power a strong TS / weak Hurr? Strengthening may slow, as you say, but it could still strengthen, no?

[NFLDART]

IMO the only thing in our favor at this point is the fairly rapid pace at which the storm is moving. Ernesto will soon run out of time.

[storms in NC]

What is the tide going to be tonight as this makes landfall?

It is going to be between low and high as the high tide is coming in.

[shaggy]

finally got posted for an inland TS warning for my area expected winds to TS force with gusts being strong but who knows how strong guess it depends on how strong ernesto gets.If he gets stronger and becomes a cat 1 and the track remains so close to me i may see some decent gusts but now its a waiting game!

[NFLDART]

I am more concerned with what happens after it becomes extra-tropical and begins to interact with the trough.Those areas do not need anymore water.

[AJC3]

I also did some conversions, and the difference between 30.3 and 29.3 is only 2 degrees Fahrenheit (apparently, 29.3 is closer to 85 degrees F)... I really don't see how that will slow weaking all that much.

A few things here: I think the cooling is a little more than 1C. Probably close to 2C. Also, the coastal shelf water is shallower, and an increasing portion of the inflow will be coming off land. This is why I said "may slow" and not "should or will stop".

As always, YOMV.

[BreinLa]

For those of you bashing the NHC, take it off this board!

Also, this is the satellite, analysis, and models thread. Could we keep the discussions to that? If you have something else to bring up, start another thread and keep this one on topic. Thanks!

I am reposting this message since I think some of you are not reading. FYI, I have deleted any post after this message that is not on topic

[NFLDART]

Where is the trough located now?

[westmoon]

Dumb question but I'am not that versed on the lay of the land there. Is storm surge going to be a big issue there if Ernesto makes landfall where they expect him to?

[MWatkins]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

[artist]

AJC3 - thanks for your time here and your help at educating everyone.

[storms in NC]

here is a good site to watch the beach with and the waters here are 83 that is still warm.

http://www.eilivesurf.com/

[fci]

For those of you bashing the NHC, take it off this board!

Also, this is the satellite, analysis, and models thread. Could we keep the discussions to that? If you have something else to bring up, start another thread and keep this one on topic. Thanks!

I am reposting this message since I think some of you are not reading. FYI, I have deleted any post after this message that is not on topic

I posted a new topic for discussion about the handling of this storm

[storms in NC]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

I know it is a hurricane now it might be on the low end but a cat 1

[Jim Cantore]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

I'm sitting here just waiting for the 2pm advisory, wouldn't be suprised to hear a Hurricane.

[seahawkjd]

what is smfr? i saw in the recon thread that now the pressure is 993 and the surface winds from smfr are approaching 70 mph.

BTW, thanks guys for all the help with the questions. I moved for a while and have just come back so I'm having to remember what everything means again lol.

[drezee]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

I know it is a hurricane now it might be on the low end but a cat 1

SMFR just reported 58kt surface winds in the SW quad about 30 minutes ago!

That is 67 mph...getting close

[artist]

storms in NC - are you a pro? If so can you post what you have telling you that?
Maybe it is - if so it will be posted by the NHC as soon as they have the data to back it up.