TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[kenl01]

I also have very strong doubts about the expected 85 Knots within 72 hours.
Intensity forecasts have already backed off.
But we shall see.

[CrazyC83]

I also have very strong doubts about the expected 85 Knots within 72 hours.
Intensity forecasts have already backed off.
But we shall see.

That's so much time, I personally think that might be conservative. That is only an increase of 5 knots every 8 hours.

[gatorcane]

Is it me or does it look like it is heading right towards florida, hopefully the turn willh appen soon...(obviously it will)

There doesn't seem to be any clue of a turn right now at all based on teh way it looks (the storm is stretched from West to east....not NW to SE as you would expect)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Is it me or does it look like it is heading right towards florida, hopefully the turn willh appen soon...(obviously it will)

There doesn't seem to be any clue of a turn right now at all based on teh way it looks (the storm is stretched from West to east....not NW to SE as you would expect)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Yep, it's just you. This is NOT a Florida storm.

[gatorcane]

Is it me or does it look like it is heading right towards florida, hopefully the turn willh appen soon...(obviously it will)

There doesn't seem to be any clue of a turn right now at all based on teh way it looks (the storm is stretched from West to east....not NW to SE as you would expect)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Yep, it's just you. This is NOT a Florida storm.

Sure that is why I said (obvious) of course until this storm clears 30N I will feel more comfortable...right now it is below 25N - it really hasn't gained a whole lot of lattitude if you think about where it was 2 days ago.

[gatorcane]

what you do have to wonder is that the ULL, albeit weak, continues to chug along West well past the curve that the NHC says will happen....how could the ULL move west but Florence curve north?

You can clearly see the ULL moving west and not curving at all and florence seems to be piggy-backing on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Stormavoider]

what you do have to wonder is that the ULL, albeit weak, continues to chug along West well past the curve that the NHC says will happen....how could the ULL move west but Florence curve north?

You can clearly see the ULL moving west and not curving at all and florence seems to be piggy-backing on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It's two different air layers.

[Javlin]

what you do have to wonder is that the ULL, albeit weak, continues to chug along West well past the curve that the NHC says will happen....how could the ULL move west but Florence curve north?

You can clearly see the ULL moving west and not curving at all and florence seems to be piggy-backing on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

While that may appear from that view and I like to use this WV loop alot but you can see the blocking mechanism setting up as we speak

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[gatorcane]

what you do have to wonder is that the ULL, albeit weak, continues to chug along West well past the curve that the NHC says will happen....how could the ULL move west but Florence curve north?

You can clearly see the ULL moving west and not curving at all and florence seems to be piggy-backing on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It's two different air layers.

so the ULL is higher up in the atmosphere than Florence? Could sombody explain?

[Sanibel]

Different steering levels. The ULL is upper level, Florence goes from several hundred feet to 55,000.

[MortisFL]

Is it me or does it look like it is heading right towards florida, hopefully the turn willh appen soon...(obviously it will)

There doesn't seem to be any clue of a turn right now at all based on teh way it looks (the storm is stretched from West to east....not NW to SE as you would expect)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

You've gone off the deep end.

[gatorcane]

so ULLs are not steered by troughs are high pressure ridges such as the Bermuda High?

[Sanibel]

The ULL is mostly gone.

[SouthFloridawx]

Different steering levels. The ULL is upper level, Florence goes from several hundred feet to 55,000.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html


Actually there you can see some vorticity in the 500mb analysis possibly indicating that the the ULL is somewhat in the Mid level. However models continue to show this ULL Moving westward so it is likely only to steer Flo a little bit farther to the west but, not as far west as gatorcane is indicating.

[gatorcane]

so ULLs are not steered by troughs are high pressure ridges such as the Bermuda High?

So what is the answer to this?

[SouthFloridawx]

The ULL is mostly gone.

No it's still there..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[Sanibel]

Still, the ULL is a feature spinning in dry air while Florence is a warm-core, robust entity laden with moist tropical clouds and rain as well as tropical upwelling. Two different things all together.

[Stormavoider]

I'll make a wild guess that we will see an eye within 2 hours.

[Trugunzn]

Finally getting its act together. Its now starting to wrap the convection around. You can clearly see it here:

[Thunder44]

I believe this storm has been slowly getting better organized since yesterday afternoon, and now seems poised for signficant intensification. It's gotten more compact since yesterday, and it looks like a 60 to 70mph TS now. I expect a hurricane by tomorrow.