AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
456 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INTENSE LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE OF HAT WILL PRODUCUE WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AT
LEAST INTO TUE. 12Z NAM AND GFS VERY CLOSE IN HANDLING THIS LOW
THROUGH 00Z WED...THEN DIVERGE ON TRACK. LEANED TO NAM12 SOLUTION.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEPENING STRONGER THAN FCST WITH WARM WATER
TEMPS AND GOOD BAROCLINIE ZONE...THUS LEANED TO HIGHER WIND SPEED
GDNC PER MARINE SECTION BELOW. CONTINUED HIGH WIND WARNINGS COASTAL
SECTIONS AND WITH ADVISORY INLAND THROUGH MON EVENING. COAST COULD
SEE WIND ADVISORIES MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AFTER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS EXPIRE. BACKED OFF ON PCPN THREAT TONIGHT AND MON AS MODELS
INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF COAST. POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP-AROUND BANDS INCREASES LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH REST OF PERIOD
AND WENT WITH 20 POPS INLAND TO 40 COAST.
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MAJOR
FLOODING MAINLY NRN OUTER BANKS AND SRN END OF PAMLICO SOUND.
ALREADY HAVE REPORTS OF WATER LEVELS AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT
BACK CREEK IN CARTERET COUNTY AND NEAR NEW BERN. NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REST OF FCST WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIME THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE SE COAST...BUT FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD AND WITH THE LOW STAYING S AND NOT
STRENGTHENING AFTER MON NT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED WASHOUT OVER FL ON
FRI ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE SE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMSP
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...VFR EXPECTED DURING PERIOD EXCEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS OUTER BANKS LATE THIS AFTN AND ON MON.
&&
.MARINE...FCST RUNNING ON TRACK WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WITH PRES RISES
OF 3MB/3HRS AS STRONG (FOR SPRING) HIGH PRES NOSES S. MEANWHILE THE
LOW IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL OFF THE NC COAST...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE PRES GRAD TO GENERATE STRONG GALES/STORM FORCE
WINDS. HAVE SEEN VERIFICATION OF ABOUT HALF THE WIND WARNINGS FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND DESPITE NIGHTTIME APPROACHING STILL
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT INLAND) AS MIXING
POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH LLJ AROUND 60-70KT IN THE FAR E. THE WARM
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD MIXING...AND AS THE WINDS
PICKED UP THIS MORNING SAW SEAS RESPOND QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED
DOWN S. AS WINDS REACH THERE PEAK LATE TONIGHT/MON WILL SEE SEAS
CAPPED AROUND THE LOWER 20S (HIGHEST NEAR HAT)...15 TO 20 KT N OF
HAT...AND 10-15 FT S OF LOOKOUT FOR MON. SOME OF THE HIGHER SEAS
NEAR HAT MAY BUMP SEAS UP SOME IN S WATERS MON NT/TUE AS THE LOW
STALLS AND THEN MOVES W. AT THAT POINT HOWEVER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SLACKEN OFF AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND THE LOW STOPS
DEEPENING. STILL LOOKING AT GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE BETTER PART OF
TUE/TUE NT AS THE PRES GRAD IS SLOW TO WEAKEN. ALSO CONCERNED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME A HYBRID STORM WHICH WOULD MEAN EVEN
LONGER DURATION OF HIGH SEAS AND AT LEAST SCA WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST. FOR NOW...AM FOLLOWING HPC/OPC LEAD AND
GOING WITH THE STRONGEST OF GUIDANCE FOR WINDS (WHICH HAS WORKED OUT
WELL SO FAR) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREV FCST...WITH ALL HEADLINES CONTINUING
UNCHANGED. CONCERNS FOR HEADLINES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT LINGERS OFF THE S COAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WOULD IMPACT SOUNDSIDE FLOODING FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS
(THOUGH WORSE SHOULD BE MON WITH STRONGEST NE WINDS). SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO COME DOWN WITH SEAS ABOVE 6FT FOR REST OF FCST.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MHX/AFDMHX
The above is from the afternoon's Morehead City NWS discussion.
