SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[Nimbus]

Looks like they think the center of the storm will either make landfall in Georgia then move WSW across Florida OR Get pulled up the South Carolina coast.

Smoke from the big GA/FL fires should be gone on the west coast but watch out East coast.

There are a number of Fires around the state, so if one of them is to your northwest you still might see some smoke. This dry wind is no help at all with the fires.

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR
31N78W...OR ABOUT 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HAS JOGGED A BIT TO THE N OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAX WINDS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND
HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

Nothing new.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR
31N78W...OR ABOUT 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HAS JOGGED A BIT TO THE N OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAX WINDS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND
HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

Nothing new.

000
WONT41 KNHC 082003
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Sandy,almost the same words as the Special Statement.

[KatDaddy]

WOW! I have been in downtown Houston chatting with Joe Bastardi at the conference. He was trying to check on the system during lunch but was swamped with reporters. It was a very good conference. Dr Gray is just plain awesome. Philip is a genious.

[jaxfladude]

Per the latest special statements: Playing the "Wait and See" Game

Wow some are very hungry for "something" 188 posts as of this post on a no name plus the nearly 400 posts thread about the low since late April the 144 hour forecast(forgot which model)

[MusicCityMan]

Come on recon tomorrow!... Let this rain maker bring us some rain.. even as a td or sts..

Btw.. what time 2morrow if they decide to send the plane out?

[TampaFl]

[cycloneye]

Come on recon tomorrow!... Let this rain maker bring us some rain.. even as a td or sts..

Btw.. what time 2morrow if they decide to send the plane out?

Around 12:00z or 8:00 AM EDT ,if they decide to go.

[Bgator]

The wind from this thing is pushing the smoke from the fires all the way to Miami! Its so hazy, and you can look into the sun its so smokey.

[MusicCityMan]

Cool beans.. So if they do send it out.. I'll know maybe by my 11am lunch if we got something.. Come on wanna be Andrea.. we need some rain!..

[AnnularCane]

Come on recon tomorrow!... Let this rain maker bring us some rain.. even as a td or sts..

Btw.. what time 2morrow if they decide to send the plane out?

Around 12:00z or 8:00 AM EDT ,if they decide to go.

I was hoping earlier than that. Oh well. Yes, I'm a bit impatient to find out just what Little Miss Swirly is.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I've been on storm2k for nearly
12 hours straight tracking this thing and
about 15 hours straight yesterday

don't worry...I'm doing my college
reading assignments while tracking
storms on storm2k...

This really looks more subtropical than it does
extratropical...

[seaswing]

As I have been saying all day...whatever it is, bring it on! no one is more prepared than Florida to deal with this. Just bring any rainfall amount, we'll take it!

Seas

[ronjon]

Charleston SC about to get hammered by the first heavy squall from this storm.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[MusicCityMan]

Amen to that`Sea! we need the rain! The firefighters need a rest.. Come on..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

South Carolina, The very first "almost subtropical"
squall of the 2007 Hurricane Season is about to
arrive at your doorstep.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This system has a large area of rain, and that will be very good
news to Florida and Georgia's fire situations

[wxman57]

Convectiion remains very shallow and away from the center. Appears to be moving a bit north of west. Squalls now moving ashore into SC. With any luck, the worst this will do is provide some rain for coastal counties from NE FLorida through SC. Chances of it intensifying are very low, even if it does gain some tropical characteristics. I know at least some of the NHC forecasters are strongly in the cold-core low camp, so the odds of it being called Andrea are low at least tonight. It'll probably slowly spin down and eventually move out to sea.

[ronjon]

This system has a large area of rain, and that will be very good
news to Florida and Georgia's fire situations

Yeah, TBH, the Charleston Radar shows the bands slowly advancing toward the fire ravaged area north of JAX and near Waycross GA. This could be a gift from god!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convectiion remains very shallow and away from the center. Appears to be moving a bit north of west. Squalls now moving ashore into SC. With any luck, the worst this will do is provide some rain for coastal counties from NE FLorida through SC. Chances of it intensifying are very low, even if it does gain some tropical characteristics. I know at least some of the NHC forecasters are strongly in the cold-core low camp, so the odds of it being called Andrea are low at least tonight. It'll probably slowly spin down and eventually move out to sea.

Is there any chance it creates enough instability to support scattered
to widespread thunderstorms fed by afternoon heating
later this week across Florida?