Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

MusicCityMan · #181 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Sun May 20, 2007 2:37 pm

At least it's mentioned in the TWD.. Maybe it'll develop some and bring us some rain..

#182 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 20, 2007 3:17 pm

Barry or Alvin, according the NHC's 72 hrs map, that is still the question!!!

Opal storm · #183 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun May 20, 2007 3:29 pm

Probably have a better chance in EPAC than over here.

#184 Postby **drezee** » Sun May 20, 2007 9:22 pm

SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A 1008 MB SFC
LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N80W AT 20/1800 UTC. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SURFACE DATA
AS WELL AS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOWED
MODERATE ELY TRADES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NELY WINDS TO
THE W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/LOW. THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AFFECTS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA...THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

Nimbus · #185 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon May 21, 2007 5:08 am

My vote is for an East Pac Alvin. Looks like the subsidence is already starting in the Caribbean.

Now why did the models say Carib?

#186 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 21, 2007 5:50 am

#187 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 21, 2007 6:41 am

The Model consensus is now with the E PAC, but the GFS and DGEX take the system back aross Central America.

#188 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 21, 2007 8:37 am

Cirulation more evident by ship reports:

21/12 MHNO6 10.5 -78.6 26.0 24.6 260 10 1010.7 0.0 28.0 MHNO6

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/data/t-01/carib-analysis.png

Now an invest in the E PAC floater page
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t9/vis-l.jpg

Chacor · #189 Postby **Chacor** » Mon May 21, 2007 8:48 am

drezee wrote:Now an invest in the E PAC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t9/vis-l.jpg

Not official on NRL...

#190 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 21, 2007 9:31 am

Chacor wrote:
drezee wrote:Now an invest in the E PAC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t9/vis-l.jpg

Not official on NRL...

It is on the floater page. Not official from NRL true

WmE · #191 Postby **WmE** » Mon May 21, 2007 9:34 am

drezee wrote:
Chacor wrote:
drezee wrote:Now an invest in the E PAC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t9/vis-l.jpg

Not official on NRL...

It is on the floater page. Not official from NRL true

I wonder why they should declare an invest on a low in another basin. The low is still in the Atlantic. :?:

MusicCityMan · #192 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Mon May 21, 2007 9:56 am

Maybe because its forecast to cross into the EPAC?

punkyg · #193 Postby **punkyg** » Mon May 21, 2007 11:38 am

Any one think that this area of disturb weather kinda look like ernesto as a tropical depression?

punkyg · #194 Postby **punkyg** » Mon May 21, 2007 12:37 pm

punkyg wrote:Any one think that this area of disturb weather kinda look like ernesto as a tropical depression?

teehee looked at the images of ernesto as a depression and it sorta look like it.

WmE · #195 Postby **WmE** » Mon May 21, 2007 12:47 pm

punkyg wrote:
punkyg wrote:Any one think that this area of disturb weather kinda look like ernesto as a tropical depression?

teehee looked at the images of ernesto as a depression and it sorta look like it.

Well, I don't know.

Here's TD 5 last year.

punkyg · #196 Postby **punkyg** » Mon May 21, 2007 12:53 pm

WmE wrote:
punkyg wrote:
punkyg wrote:Any one think that this area of disturb weather kinda look like ernesto as a tropical depression?

teehee looked at the images of ernesto as a depression and it sorta look like it.

Well, I don't know.

Here's TD 5 last year.

Well you sure are right on this, but for some reason to me it looks likes a storm i seen. it could be a tropical storm or a depression.

#197 Postby **skysummit** » Mon May 21, 2007 12:59 pm

That area currently has high pressure aloft so it's giving that "fanning" appearance to the convection and makes it look like a tropical system. I have to say though, convection has been rather persistant over the past few hours.

#198 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:04 pm

skysummit wrote:That area currently has high pressure aloft so it's giving that "fanning" appearance to the convection and makes it look like a tropical system. I have to say though, convection has been rather persistant over the past few hours.

Yes you are right - but wouldn't surprise me if its poof overnight especially because of how early we are and the fact I have seen poofs in this area countless times (especially in 2006).

#199 Postby **skysummit** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:
skysummit wrote:That area currently has high pressure aloft so it's giving that "fanning" appearance to the convection and makes it look like a tropical system. I have to say though, convection has been rather persistant over the past few hours.

Yes you are right - but wouldn't surprise me if its poof overnight especially because of how early we are and the fact I have seen poofs in this area countless times (especially in 2006).

Yea...not counting the poofs in the past few days

#200 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon May 21, 2007 1:11 pm

skysummit wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
skysummit wrote:That area currently has high pressure aloft so it's giving that "fanning" appearance to the convection and makes it look like a tropical system. I have to say though, convection has been rather persistant over the past few hours.

Yes you are right - but wouldn't surprise me if its poof overnight especially because of how early we are and the fact I have seen poofs in this area countless times (especially in 2006).

Yea...not counting the poofs in the past few days

Right good one

Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

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