Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

[Laser3003]

we are right there with you!!!!

[miamicanes177]

MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 59KT @ 23:02:20Z

so doesn't that mean the 997 is fairly recent?

Yes, the 997mb was very recent and I expect the NHC to increase the winds and lower the pressure at the 7pm advisory.

[wxman57]

Pressure is down to 997 mbs according to the latest vortex message.

I think that vortex report was taken as Barry reached peak intensity a few hours ago. Right after that report, the convection around the center began to dissipate and the center is now exposed with convection off to the northeast. It appears that shear is increasing, and Barry may already be losing tropical characteristics. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a naked swirl with squalls 100-200 miles east of the center by sunrise.

In any case, it just ruined my weekend. Instead of 2 days off, I get to work 10 hour shifts Sat/Sun then continue my work week Mon-Fri of next week. I even have to work next Satuday. No day off until June 10th. Thanks a lot, Barry!

000
URNT12 KNHC 012309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/22:43:40Z
B. 24 deg 11 min N
085 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 47 deg 020 nm
F. 089 deg 048 kt
G. 043 deg 106 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 24 C/ 302 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 17
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 59KT @ 23:02:20Z

so doesn't that mean the 997 is fairly recent?

Pressure is recent, but the structure of Barry is changing rapidly. The loss of convection near the center indicates increasing shear. That, and cooler water in Barry's path should keep Barry from strengthening. You folks in Florida don't want Barry to lose tropical characteristics too soon, or you won't get nearly as much rainfall. Max surface winds probably reached 50-55 mph for a while, maybe a few such winds still northeast of the center in that big area of squalls.

Just looked at a new satellite shot of Barry and it's even more sheared with convection farther from the center. Looking more like a subtropical storm now, on it's way to extratropical tonight/tomorrow morning.

[B'hamBlazer]

8PM advisory upgrades winds to 50mph... lists pressure at 997mb... also says the motion is still N at 12mph

[cpdaman]

make that 50 also says has been "meandering for last few hours which answers my question about the LLC not moving on visible satelite guess it is getting sheared pretty damn good

[wxman57]

7pm CDT intermediate advisory has Barry's winds at 50 mph but it's now "meandering". I thought it looked like the LLC stopped moving. However, convection continues to move off to the NNE, so Barry is showing signs of strong shear ripping the convection away, leaving a weak LLC stuck in the low-level flow. Such a storm won't produce as much rain over Florida, and the heavy rain may end up well east of the track by morning.

[JonathanBelles]

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

[B'hamBlazer]

The 45mph number seems to have been misreported... apparently actually reported to be at 50mph... still seems a bit conservative based on some of the numbers they found.

[Mike Doran]

I would tend to agree w/ Wx

For a different set of reasons. A capacitor when it loses its capacitance will then have voltages that tend to infinity . . . in English as the charges caught in a static field are free to roam they put pressure on the circuitry to move. And the latest from lightningstorm.com is strikes are up to 42k/hour which is about twice the previous high I have observed in the past three years. I tend to wonder if they have changed their data methodology, but in any event these numbers are off the charts and indicate a discharge.

Salt water varies its conductivity by temperature. For each degF drop in SSTs there is a corresponding change in resistance of about one percent. So as the coupled region is over colder SSTS, it becomes more difficult to maintain the static field and the couplings--same thing happens as a storm landfalls--which is why tropical storms weaken over land--land is extremely resistive compared to the oceans. By the conditions where the center is as well as the discharge behaviors from increases in strikes, it looks like this storm is past peak for now.

Edit:

But in general the entire region of the GOM -- with unheard of strike levels in the CONUS will have extreme coupling and while not specific to the LLC there are going to be cloud microphysics implications. It's just that at the LLC these surface winds contain saltwater and decarbonation from the surface low and itself is a moving conductor in the static field--which enhances the kinds of static fields that the cloud processes confront at the LLC. This helps to bring about the tallest and most explosive convecting clouds in the world.

[Janie2006]

Barry isn't long for this world, but at least he gave it a go.

[jaxfladude]

Barry please make up your mind, Florida needs the rain, but please do not be a blow hard.....

[cpdaman]

WXMAN what would cause the LLC to just stop like it did over past few hours? what motion do you think it will continue if it remains intact

[Rainband]

7pm CDT intermediate advisory has Barry's winds at 50 mph but it's now "meandering". I thought it looked like the LLC stopped moving. However, convection continues to move off to the NNE, so Barry is showing signs of strong shear ripping the convection away, leaving a weak LLC stuck in the low-level flow. Such a storm won't produce as much rain over Florida, and the heavy rain may end up well east of the track by morning.

Any rain is welcome. Guess the crow tastes good though??

[sunnyday]

I really felt as if we would get very little rain from this storm, as I said last night. Turns out my guess, and it was only a guess, was right. Very little in the Palm Beaches so far.

[cpdaman]

SUNNY DAY storms not over

i have an inch of rain at least in boca

[artist]

I really felt as if we would get very little rain from this storm, as I said last night. Turns out my guess, and it was only a guess, was right. Very little in the Palm Beaches so far.

where in Palm Beach do you live?
I live just west of north Palm Beach and it hasn't stopped raining since 1:30 this afternoon and for the last hour and a half it has been a very hard, heavy rain.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I really felt as if we would get very little rain from this storm, as I said last night. Turns out my guess, and it was only a guess, was right. Very little in the Palm Beaches so far.

where in Palm Beach do you live?
I live just west of north Palm Beach and it hasn't stopped raining since 1:30 this afternoon and for the last hour and a half it has been a very hard, heavy rain.

.96 here in my bucket in stuart

[Patrick99]

The rain here has been more or less off and on the whole day....never really very hard. Doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that maybe one inch and change may have fallen in total by the end of the day, though.

Now my question is, does it continue to rain? Does this herald the beginning of the rainy season, or do we dry out after this for two weeks? If the latter is the case, "Barry" will not have been all that beneficial to Florida. We need a rainy season, not a one-and-done TS that causes us to dry out after it passes.

[artist]

I know we have gotten at least 2 inches here. I am going to set out my gauge and keep an eye on it. It is coming down in buckets right now.

[cpdaman]

lots of rotation in the middle-upper keys

tornado warnings also keep an eye on the radar south fl

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

heavy rain band west of north palm beach

also moving into coconut creek- boca area watch out for big strom in this area after midnite