Atlantic INVEST 94L

[SouthFloridawx]

07061505 15-Jun-2007 01:35 1.7K
Last model run for this system.

[Cyclone1]

this is way different than alberto... and barry...

Not that different, but whatever. I don't care anymore, and I don't wanna argue.

[RattleMan]

Iam not buying the GFDL forcast with a hurricane up in the carolina's.The GFDL has a history of over doing things sometimes.

I have no idea what you mean.

[MWatkins]

Just a word of caution on getting caught up in a paticular run of a model that starts with something that is not a closed low.

When they plug in the coordinates and initiate the model...the GFDL "thinks" it is dealing with a closed low...and it's going to make a forecast based on that condition...even though there is no closed low in real life.

We all know the biggest step is closing the low (ie getting a tropical depression) first...and until it happens...the GFDL can forecast a hurricane every single run and it really doesn't make that much of a difference. Until we actually have a tropical cyclone in place...it's best to not get caught up in the deterministic forecast from the GFDL or any other model.

It's all directional at best until we have something on the map...

MW

[SouthFloridawx]

Secondly the GFDL run that I posted on the previous page, explains that these winds are at 35 Meters and not the 10 Meter Observation level, reduction in wind speed is probably in order on that run.

Besides as Aric said, I don't think there will be anymore model runs, until it has more convection and deserves to be looked at by the appropriate parties involved.

[Aric Dunn]

this is way different than alberto... and barry...

Not that different, but whatever. I don't care anymore, and I don't wanna argue.

not arguing.. just telling .. that with both ... alberto and barry.. there was a upper trough... to its west... now we have a trough to the east of this sytem... so whats the same.. both other system were sheared.. now we have none.. actually we have a stable environment. behind the ULL .. but oh well .. only time will tell ... maybe some "new" system will form out of that mess as it moves NE ... but im guess it would become a new invest.. maybe 95l.. since the surface feature that is still 94L is still near the Yucatan..

[Aric Dunn]

Just a word of caution on getting caught up in a paticular run of a model that starts with something that is not a closed low.

When they plug in the coordinates and initiate the model...the GFDL "thinks" it is dealing with a closed low...and it's going to make a forecast based on that condition...even though there is no closed low in real life.

We all know the biggest step is closing the low (ie getting a tropical depression) first...and until it happens...the GFDL can forecast a hurricane every single run and it really doesn't make that much of a difference. Until we actually have a tropical cyclone in place...it's best to not get caught up in the deterministic forecast from the GFDL or any other model.

It's all directional at best until we have something on the map...

MW

thank i was just getting to that!!! .. typing takes to long...

[SouthFloridawx]

It is interesting to note that the Canadian is no longer intensifying this much until after is Crosses the S. Florida Pen.

Perhaps as convection on the tail end of the trough continues, another small area of low level pressure could form, as suggested by this model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[windstorm99]

As it was stated earlier i also think this convection is still being caused by the ULL in the vicinity.The 12z Nogaps has heavy precip across south florida this weekened lets see if it takes place.Adrian

[Cyclone1]

this is way different than alberto... and barry...

Not that different, but whatever. I don't care anymore, and I don't wanna argue.

not arguing.. just telling .. that with both ... alberto and barry.. there was a upper trough... to its west... now we have a trough to the east of this sytem... so whats the same.. both other system were sheared.. now we have none.. actually we have a stable environment. behind the ULL .. but oh well .. only time will tell ... maybe some "new" system will form out of that mess as it moves NE ... but im guess it would become a new invest.. maybe 95l.. since the surface feature that is still 94L is still near the Yucatan..

I guess you're right, but if this convection moves westward nearer to the LLC, I think 94L might have a chance. But like you said, only time will tell.

[Aric Dunn]

There's nothing down there to run models on....

As it was stated earlier i also think this convection is still being caused by the ULL in the vicinity.The 12z Nogaps has heavy precip across south florida this weekened lets see if it takes place.Adrian

that it does .. but it also has a small area of low pressure coming out of the carrib

[Downdraft]

Wake me up when something exciting happens and this sure isn't it. You just can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear as the country folk say.

[windstorm99]

[Aric Dunn]

yepp see it.. check the surface pressure map...

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 151903
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...



DO NOT THINK THE WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY
SHOWN BY GFS OVER THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING IS REALISTIC. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM WHICH KEEPS IT A TROUGH AXIS AND IT IS SLOWER
BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.


SAT-SUN...A SFC TROUGH MARKED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTH OF CUBA IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE FL STRAITS ON SAT. THIS
INVEST AREA (94L) SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER S FL WITH A LESSER DEGREE OF COVERAGE NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS AND LATEST ECMWF RUN. LACKING ANY
DISCRETE SFC FEATURES ATTM THE GFS VORT CENTER OVER N CUBA TONIGHT
AND SUBSEQUENT LIFTING OF A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER TOWARD S FL EARLY
SAT IS DISCOUNTED. FEEL ECMWF DEPICTION OF TROUGH LIFTING OVER S FL
AND EVENTUALLY BAHAMAS IS MOST REALISTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ADTL SFC DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER AS SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE ATLC WATERS EAST OF FL. WITH
HIGHEST MOISTURE ASCD WITH SYSTEM REMAINING CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA POPS WILL BE LOWERED INTO SCT CATEGORY SOUTH AND ISOLD
NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR SAT. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER THE STATE ON SUN FROM THE S WITH SE FLOW KEEPING
MOISTURE VALUES HIGH ENUF FOR DIURNALLY SCT TSRA OVER THE WHOLE
AREA.

[windstorm99]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 151827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION
IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS
THE GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE GFS JUST SHOWING THIS
LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND
FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A very weak and broad surface low is centered near 18-18.5 north/85 west. Most of the convection is off to the northeast of this low pressure; we have to watch it because how fast these things can come together. I would watch a MLC near 19.5/20 north/83.5-84 on the southwest edge or near it of the convection.

On another note a REAL LLC is at 24 north/84 west off Florida. Look at Visible. No chance of development but good looking.

[windstorm99]

New thoughts by jeff masters on 94L.....

An area of disturbed weather with heavy thunderstorm activity has developed along a broad trough of surface low pressure in the western Caribbean between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Satellite imagery shows a steadily increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. NHC canceled the Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled for this afternoon, and has not scheduled a mission for Saturday.

NHC no longer thinks highly enough of this system to offer their suite of early model tracks, but the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all indicate that the disturbance will move north then northeastward over the weekend, bringing heavy rains of 2-4 inches over Central Cuba, extreme South Florida, and the northwest Bahama Islands. Some isolated amounts of up to 6 inches are possible over Cuba and the Bahamas. All of these models indicate the possibility that a tropical or subtropical depression could form by Sunday near South Florida or the Bahamas. There is enough wind shear that an extratropical storm could form, instead, though. Wind shear over the disturbance has decreased from 20-25 to 10-20 knots today, and is forecast to remain at similar levels for the next 48 hours. There is some dry air one can see on Water vapor satellite loops over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico slowing development of the system, and this will continue to be a factor that will slow development over the next two days. Surface pressures are not falling over the region, and thus any development is going to be slow to occur. I give the system a 20% chance of becoming a depression. Wind shear is a very high 20-40 knots from central Florida northwards, which should act to keep the top winds of any storm that does form below 50 mph.

I also recommend you visit his blog for his lastest june outlook.

Jeff masters june hurricane season outlook

[ronjon]

The ULL near the west end of the Cuban peninsula looks to be filling in. A batch of dry air with subsidence is approaching the northern coast of the Yucatan and this will inhibit any significant development in the near term. I'm still not sold that this batch of convection will be whisked away to the NE ala GFS. The subtropical ridge is building in from the east and southeast and its going to be a race to see whether the eastern seaboard trough picks it up or the area gets shunted to the north and west into the southern GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Beginning to wonder myself why this ULL isn't gone, in fact it looks practically stationary.


(Edit)


Rather I mean to say, I believe it should be over Cuba by now...