Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[wjs3]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

I believe that those QuikSCAT winds indicate the possibility of a surface circulation, but they're detecting winds above the surface (cloud movements). Even if the disturbance has/had an LLC, it's general lack of organization is not good enough for the NHC to classify it, particularly since it's well out to sea and no threat to anyone for at least 5-6 days. So even though a disturbance might have an LLC, the NHC forecasters have demonstrated that they won't classify a disturbance out in the "middle of nowhere" as a TD unless it is showing definite signs of an LLC and is increasing in organization (and, i might add, that conditions in its path are forecast to be favorable for development).

So all we have now is a disturbance that might have an LLC. But thunderstorms have diminished in the past 2-3 hours, and conditions aloft in its path are forecast to be increasingly unfavorable for development. In this case, the NHC will most likely just watch it today and tomorrow for some significant signs of organization before jumping the gun and calling it a TD. There's no rush, it's not going to affect anyone soon.

Sorry for the long quote--and sorry for a quote fomr 3 pages ago.

Wxman, I respect you more than I can say...but I believe youre mistaken--Quickscat is not using cloud motions. It's using the ocean surface. Capillary waves generated by drag on the ocean surface, bragg scatterometry and all that good stuff. I don't THINK I'm wrong about this--you pros often shoot me down on these--and only offer this up so that folks keep clear that there are cloud motion-dervived winds and then there are ocean surface derived winds. Quickscat is the latter. Correct me if I'm mistaken. Those are surface wind vector estimates as I understand them.

WJS3

[philnyc]

NHC is more concerned about it now:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/031507.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

I'll let you enjoy the TDF, WJ3, just as I will be doing

I will not be very happy if we have a storm during the TDF, like we had in 2005 (2 majors, drove me nuts)

[wjs3]

I'll let you enjoy the TDF, WJ3, just as I will be doing

I will not be very happy if we have a storm during the TDF, like we had in 2005 (2 majors, drove me nuts)

Let's hope not. I don't like being distracted either.

[cycloneye]

There seems to be a consensus building from the models to track this towards the NE Caribbean.To my fellow NE Caribbean islands members,it's not time to panic or to put shutters,but to watch this system in the next few days to see what it does.Hopefully it will bring needed rain to some of the islands as there are deficits of rain in some of them,including here in Southern Puerto Rico.So guys and gals of the islands,stay tuned here as you will have all the information necessary for us to act acordinly.

[jrod]

The last two frames on the floater might look a little better than earlier. I pretty much missed all of last year's season so it has been a while since I've seen a true tropical wave, I'm already hooked again.

Mr. Ortt,
Your TDF comment was classic!

[Aric Dunn]

either way .. without sufficient convection no TD would be upgraded.. unless there was some circumstance that would permit it.. as the environment ahead of it becoming more favorable I.e moisture , as to think it would allow for increased convection ...

[Cyclone1]

either way .. without sufficient convection no TD would be upgraded.. unless there was some circumstance that would permit it.. as the environment ahead of it becoming more favorable I.e moisture , as to think it would allow for increased convection ...

Makes me wonder about TD4 in 2000. I believe there was absolutely no convection with that one...

[Trader Ron]

There seems to be a consensus building from the models to track this towards the NE Caribbean.To my fellow NE Caribbean islands members,it's not time to panic or to put shutters,but to watch this system in the next few days to see what it does.Hopefully it will bring needed rain to some of the islands as there are deficits of rain in some of them,including here in Southern Puerto Rico.So guys and gals of the islands,stay tuned here as you will have all the information necessary for us to act acordinly.

Luis, if that's the case, won't it run into tons of dry air?

[Aric Dunn]

otherwise the circulation is quite impressive considering!! it is still slightly attached to ITCZ but that seems to be fading pretty quickly .. only thing in its immediate future would be dry air.. it for some reason moisture started to increase i would have no doubt we would see a TD out this .. but until then its up in the air .. if its able draw enough moisture or not

[BreinLa]

I'll let you enjoy the TDF, WJ3, just as I will be doing

I will not be very happy if we have a storm during the TDF, like we had in 2005 (2 majors, drove me nuts)

HUH what does TDF mean?

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll let you enjoy the TDF, WJ3, just as I will be doing

I will not be very happy if we have a storm during the TDF, like we had in 2005 (2 majors, drove me nuts)

HUH what does TDF mean?

It is the acronym for Tour de France.

[BatzVI]

why am I sensing a hint of Bertha from 96.....didn't she form around 8N36W, the came through the VI on July 9th..........so, will just be keeping an eye on it, but not worried as yet....

[BreinLa]

Thanks Miami sort of hard to understand if you don't go back and read a couple of pages

[Opal storm]

This thing is so tiny...and surrounded by dry air on all sides. I don't see anything developing out of this in the short term, but maybe it will do something later down the road in the eastern/central caribbean sea.

[Cyclenall]

to say that this thing is a TD at the present time is equivalent to saying that all current pro cyclists do NOT dope for races

You and your pro cyclist analogies! It's definitely not a tropical depression right now.

I believe it won't form into anything until it nears the Caribbean or enters in. It looked great this morning but starting waning again. I wouldn't mind if it just beat the odds now and formed into a TC despite the conditions.

[Cyclone1]

This thing is so tiny...and surrounded by dry air on all sides. I don't see anything developing out of this in the short term, but maybe it will do something later down the road in the eastern/central caribbean sea.

All sides? Just to the north actually.

[Trader Ron]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Looks like it will have to fight lots of dry air.

[skysummit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Looks like it will have to fight lots of dry air.

...and doing it pretty well so far.

[Cyclenall]

Maybe they wrote this TWO earlier and then just had somebody post it at 11 AM while the forecasters went off to grab a bite to eat

I think that is exactly what happened! I find it strange the NHC put that out as it was clearly looking worse in each passing frame. If the outlook came in at 8:00 am, then it would make much more sense.