Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Complacency]

Why haven't any pro-mets commented in this thread?
Usually there are a few mets from Texas who like to comment in this kind of a thread...but their usual comments seem to dismiss any chance for tropical development. Maybe their recent silence means something.

[gatorcane]

I don't know if this wave has a chance with all the dry air ahead of it!


BUT...if it does, it is forming very near the dreaded Herbert Box.

exactly as the CMC has been saying for the past week.

So can we stop bashing the CMC please!?!?

[Berwick Bay]

[quote]The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote

Gatorcane asked where this system might head. My best bet right now is pretty much parallel with the Greater Antilles, moving over and through Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, also parts of Cuba. See best chances for cyclogenesis to be right along the southern shore of Central Cuba, at 21N and 79W. Of course this is about three days down the line. But I see the mass pretty much remaining intact through the main islands, with perhaps mid-level circulation helping to sustain convection through the islands. But then enough convection conglomeration just south of the central Cuban Coast to bring about cyclogenesis there.

[Complacency]

I don't know if this wave has a chance with all the dry air ahead of it!


BUT...if it does, it is forming very near the dreaded Herbert Box.

exactly as the CMC has been saying for the past week.

So can we stop bashing the CMC please!?!?

Wait, I'm confused...what did the CMC predict?
Did it account for the dry air?

[gatorcane]

about a week ago the CMC showed a hurricane developing in the SE Bahamas from this tropical wave and had it approaching South Florida. Recently the CMC has backed off and recurves the system before reaching Florida but shunts it up to Maine.....

The fact is that the CMC should get some kudos at this point because we at least have something where it said something would start forming.

and don't forget the CMC accurately predicted Katrina's development....

[cycloneye]

Here i, the so tip of Guadeloupe,i got SSO winds 10 to 20kh,thunder,and fierce squall just to my west.Baro is normal(1013mb,and steady.Ithink in Martinica and Dominica the winds are in relation to the sqaulls that are developping in the near west coast of the se islands including Guadeloupe.Perhaps local effects???

Good to see you reporting from Guadeloupe about what is going on in the area of interest this afternoon.If you see something important in that island related to this system,post it rapidly for the members to see what is gong on.

[Complacency]

about a week ago the CMC showed a hurricane developing in the SE Bahamas from this tropical wave and had it approaching South Florida. Recently the CMC has backed off and recurves the system before reaching Florida but shunts it up to Maine.....

The fact is that the CMC should get some kudos at this point because we at least have something where it said something would start forming.

and don't forget the CMC accurately predicted Katrina's development....

Oh, I see. Thanks for informing me!

[canegrl04]

Chantal here we come.Just don't hurt anybody

[fci]

anybody want to start guessing where it goes - although it may be a bit premature

[TPACane07]

playing the "what if" game...Models show a weakness in ridge north of PR/Cuba, in the next 3-4 days. so IF anything got jiving with this wave cluster, methinks it could be headed N via the break in the ridge, and thus, east of US.

12z CMC does show some reflection heading toward the NE US, perhaps merging with a continental system, sometime next week

[jasons2k]

Yep, the CMC saw Katrina ahead of time.

So did "Elysium."

Blind Squirrel finds nut.

[Complacency]

playing the "what if" game...Models show a weakness in ridge north of PR/Cuba, in the next 3-4 days. so IF anything got jiving with this wave cluster, methinks it could be headed N via the break in the ridge, and thus, east of US.

12z CMC does show some reflection heading toward the NE US, perhaps merging with a continental system, sometime next week

And there is an upper level low south of Bermuda which may pull this tropical wave even further north...

I don't think this is a threat to the mainlaind U.S...maybe to extreme eastern Canada.

[canegrl04]

:eek:

anybody want to start guessing where it goes - although it may be a bit premature

I guess it goes crazy .Hopefully not in the GOM it will scare La and the oil companies

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

I expect the NHC to say..."cloudiness and showers over..bla bla bla have become better organized today but surface pressures remain high. Nonetheless development is possible as the wave heads WNW...."

Okay I guess I was a little off.....

[fci]

Why haven't any pro-mets commented in this thread?
Usually there are a few mets from Texas who like to comment in this kind of a thread...but their usual comments seem to dismiss any chance for tropical development. Maybe their recent silence means something.

I think at this point it is still way early for a lot of concern.
Pro-Mets will interject when they see anything of real interest to them.
Not to dismiss this system but it is getting good play on the forum since many are chomping at the bit to see some action.
Not putting that mentality down as we are at the doorstep of the active time and anxiousness is well expected here at S2K.
Hey, I'm reading it!!!
and commenting!

[Blown Away]

Wasn't the CMC developing the low well N of th islands then moving it up the East coast. Looks like the discussed activity is much further S, if the low develops S of the islands where will it go. I want, I need at least a Invest to come from this.

[Complacency]

Why haven't any pro-mets commented in this thread?
Usually there are a few mets from Texas who like to comment in this kind of a thread...but their usual comments seem to dismiss any chance for tropical development. Maybe their recent silence means something.

I think at this point it is still way early for a lot of concern.
Pro-Mets will interject when they see anything of real interest to them.
Not to dismiss this system but it is getting good play on the forum since many are chomping at the bit to see some action.
Not putting that mentality down as we are at the doorstep of the active time and anxiousness is well expected here at S2K.
Hey, I'm reading it!!!
and commenting!

Regardless if this wave or past waves had a decent chance for development, we would still see a few pro mets (especially a handful from Texas) usually comment about how unlikely it would be for the area of concern to develop into a depression or tropical storm.

[Opal storm]

More unstable air if it goes west which could cause a flare-up.