INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Stormcenter]

Boy, there is still a great deal of very dry air to the north and west of 99l. I would be somewhat surprised if this aoi develops. Check out the LSU ESL website for graphics.

Yes the air is very very dry all around the system. It does look it is "trying" to get it's act together.

[LSU2001]

Boy, there is still a great deal of very dry air to the north and west of 99l. I would be somewhat surprised if this aoi develops. Check out the LSU ESL website for graphics.

Yes the air is very very dry all around the system. It does look it is "trying" to get it's act together.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

[skysummit]

Here's the big bowl of noodles...

[Cyclone1]

That's a lotta lines...

[Blown Away]

Center looks like it is near 11N /49W, if it is under the orange blob.

[Aquawind]

While there clearly is dry air to the north it has little influence at the current position.. Fact is the system is still cuddling the ITCZ and has plenty of juice. However as/when/if the system begins to gain latitude and seperate from the ITCZ it will also be cutting off it's main moisute inflow. Then it will really be fighting the dry air for moisture.. Thing is this isssue is down the road when it actaully gains independance from the ITCZ. Let it persist and develop a single stacked LLC..then we will see how it reacts down the road with the dry air and shear..

[vaffie]

12Z hwrf does not make it that strong. Just south of Jamaica at 126 hours and 999mb.

The models always have a hard time predicting tropical storm intensity, and rarely take the pressure down below 985 mb. Only the GFDL ever seems to be able to take them down significantly. The position is significant however and worth paying attention to.

[Dean4Storms]

Boy, there is still a great deal of very dry air to the north and west of 99l. I would be somewhat surprised if this aoi develops. Check out the LSU ESL website for graphics.

Yes the air is very very dry all around the system. It does look it is "trying" to get it's act together.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

It does appear to saturate the drier air out to its northwest as it moves westward, if it kept this up and develops soon it has a chance.

[gatorcane]

one thing is for sure...it is maintaining a blob of convection all day today....that is significant in my opinion..

[Derek Ortt]

center is closer to 10N... nothing is going on near 11N

We have a disorganized wave/weak low that is not close to TD status at the present time and would likely require 24-48 more hours at the very least before developing into anything

[Aquawind]

center is closer to 10N... nothing is going on near 11N

We have a disorganized wave/weak low that is not close to TD status at the present time and would likely require 24-48 more hours at the very least before developing into anything

Well Said..

Actually as the sun sets the convection is not to impressive.. It will refire but certainly looks like it will take awhile to organize.. tilted and elongated yet imo.

[wxmann_91]

12Z hwrf does not make it that strong. Just south of Jamaica at 126 hours and 999mb.

The models always have a hard time predicting tropical storm intensity, and rarely take the pressure down below 985 mb. Only the GFDL ever seems to be able to take them down significantly. The position is significant however and worth paying attention to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the HWRF was a model designed to forecast tropical cyclones, like the GFDL but run of the NAM/WRF, rather than off the GFS? So shouldn't it, like the GFDL, show an extremely deep cyclone when it sees an extremely deep cyclone?

[gatorcane]

center is closer to 10N... nothing is going on near 11N

We have a disorganized wave/weak low that is not close to TD status at the present time and would likely require 24-48 more hours at the very least before developing into anything

But if you look at the big picture and see the amount of spin this thing already has with almost "tentacle" like cloud formations forming around it...you can help but get worried and think something is happening down there...

True the convection is waning some but that doesn't surprise me since we are at the diurnal minimum ....I'm thinking in about 12 hours it will have more convection as we hit the late night hours..

Still think something is going to form out of this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[vaffie]

12Z hwrf does not make it that strong. Just south of Jamaica at 126 hours and 999mb.

The models always have a hard time predicting tropical storm intensity, and rarely take the pressure down below 985 mb. Only the GFDL ever seems to be able to take them down significantly. The position is significant however and worth paying attention to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the HWRF was a model designed to forecast tropical cyclones, like the GFDL but run of the NAM/WRF, rather than off the GFS? So shouldn't it, like the GFDL, show an extremely deep cyclone when it sees an extremely deep cyclone?

You're right. It's designed to be good at predicting intensity too, so we'll just have to see how it does.

[Nimbus]

The only fact the recent posts seem to be missing is that the SST's west of 50W are a little warmer. Now you have to ask yourself what does that do to humidity at the surface?

[Blown Away]

I trust Derek, however there is nice convection blob near 11N/48W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi just posted his opinion that the decreased convergence/increased relative shear upon entering the Caribbean will probably kill 99L because it is coming in at too low a latitude and will fall victim to the semi-permanent Colombian heat low.



IIRC, 4 years back, Claudette about got knocked back to a tropical wave in the Caribbean, before re-strengtheing on its way to Texas

[sunnyday]

I hope no hurricane heads into the Gulf toward La. or Miss. They paid a lifetime of dues with Katrina.
Not that I want one in S. Fl., either.

[sunnyday]

If Joe B, says no to 99, I won't worry any more about it.

[Cyclone1]

Joe doesn't really impress me. (BLASPHEMY!)