Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Weatherfreak14]

Does everyone remember Ernesto track last year cutting thru Eastern Cuba then hitting Florida around Key Largo. Since the Bermuda high is put on hold and trough coming into Florida forecasted by Tampa NWS from the ENE will that create a weakness to pull 99L if it develops northward towards Florida?

As of right now, looking at the 500mb from GFS... I would say that a track to the west then, across the Yuck and into Mexico would probably be prudent. Not sure what upper level features, or disturbances may break down the ridge, but it does look like a case for a westward moving system.

Well, i do have confidence in the more westward track, isnt this almost the same thing that ernesto was supposed to do (a westward track)? but then things change

[boca]

Where are all the "it's dead posts"...."stick a fork in it"...."next"? Come on, I really want to know.

Its dead,stick a fork in it. It won't develop.

[Ivanhater]

Where are all the "it's dead posts"...."stick a fork in it"...."next"? Come on, I really want to know.

Haaa...I think it was just you and me yesterday

[GeneratorPower]

It's that age-old problem of the limitations of forecasting this far in advance. We've got to remember that intensity of 99L will play a big role in how it is steered. I can't believe any of the models will have a good lock on this until it's fully organized. I'd say it's near impossible to come to meaningful conclusions right now.

But let's keep discussing the possibilities. Especially the setup.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I love a good STDS...

[storms in NC]

stick a fork in it. that make you fell better.LOL

[HURAKAN]

Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR
Elevation: 184 ft / 56 m
86 °F / 30 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the ENE
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 93 °F / 34 °C
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1200 ft / 365 m
Mostly Cloudy 30000 ft / 9144 m
(Above Ground Level)

[GeneratorPower]

I love a good STDS...

Where STDS. No see STDS. Where see STDS?

[Weatherfreak14]

Anywaz i think there is a spin or a LLC around 13N 57W. Any comments on this?

[GeneratorPower]

When can we expect diurnal mins/maxes? I've never been clear on when they occur.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Can someone explain to me if i have to clear out something on my PC to view 99L on the navy site?Thanks Adrian

The main NRL site gets flaky sometimes (Lima anyone?), which is why we have backups!

main site (doesn't show 99L: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
backup (shows 99L): http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[canegrl04]

Things are really picking up in the Atlantic. Shouldn't be too long before we have our first hurricane.I guess its safe to say this fighter of a wave is eventually going to become Dean.Hopefully not mean Dean

[DESTRUCTION5]

I love a good STDS...

Where STDS. No see STDS. Where see STDS?

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011400Z AUG 07//
WTNT 01 KNGU 011400
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/301130Z JUL 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 301200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 58.0W TO 15.6N 70.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 011400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 58.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10KNOTS.

[Derek Ortt]

where was the recon supposed to be taking off from? If it was from Biloxi and there are no obs... that is a dead giveaway. If it's from St Croix, then take off should be around noon

[windstorm99]

Can someone explain to me if i have to clear out something on my PC to view 99L on the navy site?Thanks Adrian

The main NRL site gets flaky sometimes (Lima anyone?), which is why we have backups!

main site (doesn't show 99L: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
backup (shows 99L): http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

I aslo get it on the FNMOC website which i have but i was able to get a look at the TCFA issued.

[windstorm99]

where was the recon supposed to be taking off from? If it was from Biloxi and there are no obs... that is a dead giveaway. If it's from St Croix, then take off should be around noon

Recon will fly out from St Croix.

[GeneratorPower]

Dean the Mean.

Lean, mean, palm-tree leveling machine.

[windstorm99]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Could the rumored sub-tropical development in the Gulf later this week along the old frontal trough create enough weakness in the ridge to allow further Northward component once to Western Carib?


Anyone with expertise/experience, I'd be interested.


Now that I own a home, a good TS that moves quick enough not to flood us like Allison almost did would be a bit of an adventure, but anything more than that would be worrisome.

[WmE]

Things are really picking up in the Atlantic. Shouldn't be too long before we have our first hurricane.I guess its safe to say this fighter of a wave is eventually going to become Dean.Hopefully not mean Dean

Nah, this season's over. Season cancel!!!!!