Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Coredesat]

The system is flaring pretty good right now, but there are still no hints of any kind of circulation. It's just a fairly healthy tropical wave with elongated convection at this point.

[Normandy]

^Agreed.
At least it appears to be consolidating at one point now (instead of flying westward like the last convective burst did).

[Coredesat]

SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

That's a little fast, it would have a very hard time closing off a circulation moving that quickly (remember what happened to Earl in 2004).

[crazycajuncane]

SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA AGAIN LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

That's a little fast, it would have a very hard time closing off a circulation moving that quickly (remember what happened to Earl in 2004).

I do agree that's a bit fast. It's still hanging in there though in this wild roller coaster ride.

Can you tell the 2kers' are ready for some tropical activity? We've seen more posts on 99L than I can remember on any wave before becoming at least a TD!

Okay i'm tired... will check on things in a few hours.

[Normandy]

If it did close of a low it probably would skip depression status and go straight to tropical storm status due to its fast forward speed.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Radar of the Netherland Antilles.

[HURAKAN]

Claudette while still an invest. After LLC developed the system went straight to tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive area of thunderstorms but no LLC seems to be developing.

[HURAKAN]

Chantal, 2001: One of the fastest in the business

8/16 5 PM
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 58.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

8/17 11 AM
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 65.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

Between 8/16 5 PM and 8/17 11 AM Chantal was downgraded to a tropical wave because the RECON couldn't find a LLC.

[alan1961]

Well i think this is the day of reckoning for this thing..has a nice flare up this morning, waters plenty warm enough, if it dont get any resemblence of a circulation now i just dont see what else it needs to get its act together..we'll see as the day progresses.

[vaffie]

Wow, what a flareup! That is a huge area of the coldest cloudtops satellite pictures can estimate!

This buoy just ahead of the storm's pressure bottomed two hours ago at 29.87 mb as it does at that time of the day and instead of rising back to 29.91 as it usually does has stayed there and is about to start dropping rapidly again. Anyway, the way this convective outburst is, I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure isn't dropping at 1-2 mb per hour right now, and could be as low as 1000 mb already. It will take about three hours for the winds to catch up but by 11 am, it could be a tropical storm already.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[Nimbus]

Typical shear from the easterlies in the EC.

There is low pressure at the surface and the convection seems to be responding to the higher SSTs in the Caribbean. Both Shallow and medium BAM take the storm WNW. The wave should at least maintain itself till it gets in the real go juice south of Jamaica.

None of the pro mets except for Derek seem to think this has much chance of developing a LLC under the convection bursts till then. Climo history would support their hedge bet since there is usually just enough shear from the easterlies or streaming north off the South American coast to undercut and disrupt any circulation. I will therefore defer to the pros till we get a vortex message.

[HURAKAN]

First visible image of the day. An interesting day ahead.

[alan1961]

Typical shear from the easterlies in the EC.

There is low pressure at the surface and the convection seems to be responding to the higher SSTs in the Caribbean. Both Shallow and medium BAM take the storm WNW. The wave should at least maintain itself till it gets in the real go juice south of Jamaica.

None of the pro mets except for Derek seem to think this has much chance of developing a LLC under the convection bursts till then. Climo history would support their hedge bet since there is usually just enough shear from the easterlies or streaming north off the South American coast to undercut and disrupt any circulation. I will therefore defer to the pros till we get a vortex message.

yes agree with the easterly shear and the flow from s america nimbus..always an issue in the eastern caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

We'll have to wait until tomorrow when it gets to the CCAR to see the system slow down and maybe develop a LLC. But it's good to see that the convection responding.

But I think we can still get something out of this, at least it has a good gas-to-mileage ratio!!!

[Nimbus]

Yup looking at that convection its..
"Too Fast to Live, Too Young to Die"

[marcane_1973]

20 mph!!!! What atmospheric conditions are surrounding this wave to make it move so fast? Is there any reason to believe that it will eventually slow down in the near future? If it keeps up this pace I say 99L is dead. At least Chantal had an ok decent LLC. This Invest has never really had its act together from the get go.

[caneman]

Someone can feel free to correct me but while 20 mph is fast, I don't believe it is too fast for development.

[alan1961]

if it carries on blowing up convection at this speed and develops marcane i'm sure it will slow down..but yeah its got a move on over night thru those islands and we'll see now if its do or die..i think theres more fun and games down the road with this fellow

[skysummit]

Well, in case it's gone in a few hours, this is what it looked like at 6am CDT. Now can it hold on to this, or is i just sucking up all its moisture at once again.