Global Models for 90L

[chadtm80]

Image has now updated.. I thought it was every six hours, but was 7 hours apart from the last one.. anywho...

[Derek Ortt]

as most here know, I have more confidence in Mickelson's putter than I do the EURO for the tropics. I have never once used the Euro and do not plan to unless a few changes are made to it

that said, development should now be slow based upon the increase in easterly shear, unless this starts moving 25 mph

[tgenius]

So the question becomes: Is EURO picking up on something that GFS and every other model isn't, or is it the outlier to everything else developing?

I know the LLC is exposed right now, but It's just interesting how that one model could have it vanish!

[miamicanes177]

12Z EURO 144 hours

[KFDM Meteorologist]

15.0 and 52.0 on the EURO at 144 hrs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Image has now updated.. I thought it was every six hours, but was 7 hours apart from the last one.. anywho...

90L showing up on edge of Central Atlantic imagery on NOAA Nesdis page. Updates every 30 minutes.

Heck, loop "total Atlantic" and watch Caribbean and 90L at same time...

[miamicanes177]

192 hours

[Ed Mahmoud]

as most here know, I have more confidence in Mickelson's putter than I do the EURO for the tropics. I have never once used the Euro and do not plan to unless a few changes are made to it

that said, development should now be slow based upon the increase in easterly shear, unless this starts moving 25 mph

Yurpian Community predicted Caribbean development in June that never happened, but, IIRC, it did well on Katrina, and for a global model, did well suggesting extreme intensity.

[CrazyC83]

What the models say now:

CMC - Cat 3+ hurricane with pressure <960mb (at least) into N Leewards

GFDL - Cat 2 hurricane with pressure 968mb into S Leewards

GFS - Tropical storm with pressure ~999mb (at least) towards Leewards

HWRF - Cat 2 hurricane with pressure 970mb into S Leewards

NOGAPS - fails to develop

UKMET - Tropical storm with pressure ~1001mb (at least) through Leewards and across N Caribbean Sea

[Ed Mahmoud]

Central Atlantic showing Western edge of 90L

[Derek Ortt]

a blind squirrel finds an acorn

The Canadian was outstanding with Alex in 2004. I can find an example where each of the models had a highlight

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO having a hard time showing it!

[jhamps10]

is it me or does the central atlantic IR sat look a lot better than the previous image on the eastern atlantic sat?

[Ed Mahmoud]

is it me or does the central atlantic IR sat look a lot better than the previous image on the eastern atlantic sat?

Central ATL from US GOES satellite, while EATL from Yurpian MetSat. GOES data on NOAA Nesdis site updates every 30 minutes, about 40 minutes after the fact, vs. 6 hour update an hour or more after the fact on EATL imagery.

[jhamps10]

is it me or does the central atlantic IR sat look a lot better than the previous image on the eastern atlantic sat?

Central ATL from US GOES satellite, while EATL from Yurpian MetSat. GOES data on NOAA Nesdis site updates every 30 minutes, about 40 minutes after the fact, vs. 6 hour update an hour or more after the fact on EATL imagery.

yeah I know that, I should have posted that the central ATL sat has 90L looking better on IR than the EATL. That's what I meant to post.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We'll see if the 18Z GFS still shows the southern track. Should be out 5:30 Central time.

[gtsmith]

this link updates every hour on certain types or products

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Nice shots there!

[Steve]

>>Nice shots there!

Yeah, the European Union is doing some nice work with their hardware IMHO. Looks like some strong energy in the eastern Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean heading toward Somalia in a few days. That'll be a system to watch across Africa for sure.

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS is starting!