Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Perk, anything is possible, and there is always a first time.

And my car and palm trees (not the lawn, however) got a dusting of snow on Christmas Eve in 2004.


IIRC, I wasn't nervous about Lili here at all. Now, Isidore had HOU in the cone as it approached the Yucatan, and that did have me quite nervous, but the stall over the Yucatan prevented a bad deal for the US.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z intermediate UK Met at tau 48 has a low approaching South Florida...




Oh, it looks like it shows Karen starting a comeback...

PS One "m" in the word 'coming'.

[southerngale]

Give it a break till something may consolodate and close off...if ever. In the interum, get out the comic books or the yo-yo for the time being. There is a steep pressure gradient, big deal...it howls on the west coast out of the NW every time a front blows through in the winter. No big deal, chill out.

Nobody is forcing you to read this thread, but it is the Talkin' Tropics forum so obviously, people are going to talk about possible tropical development. Of course they don't all develop, but you learn from the ones that do as well as the ones that don't. People can *chill out* however they choose.

[KatDaddy]

Climo usually wins out on a tropical system making landfall along the TX Coast in October but it comes down to the current pattern. Sometimes the pattern overshadows climo and we get a TX landfall. Very few and very far between.

[Vortex]

Katdaddy,

I agree with you but the pattern the next 7 days would favor a central/west Gulf threat...

[KatDaddy]

I agree with you Vortex. This is one time the current pattern may win over climo. We need to see something develop first. The models are sniffing.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z intermediate UK Met at tau 48 has a low approaching South Florida...




Oh, it looks like it shows Karen starting a comeback...

PS One "m" in the word 'coming'.

Do you have a link to the rest of the run?

[Vortex]

18Z UKMET only goes out 48 hr

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z intermediate UK Met at tau 48 has a low approaching South Florida...




Oh, it looks like it shows Karen starting a comeback...

PS One "m" in the word 'coming'.

Do you have a link to the rest of the run?

From the FSU Experimental Cyclone Genesis page, but the 18Z and 6Z UKMet only go out 48 hours, that is the last image.

[Ptarmigan]

Pressures are high in the area near the Bahamas being from 1018 to 1014 mbs.Winds are from the Northeast in Florida and the Bahamas islands.

That one bears watching and could be a problem next weekend.

[Ptarmigan]

Problem with using climatology is that it only goes back to 19th century. I remember reading somewhere that Spanish explorers encountered tropical systems as late as November. It could be an extratropical storm or drunken sailor tales.

[HURAKAN]

LOOP: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there as it appears to me a low
pressure area forming near 24 North and 76 west
just NW of those convective bands north of
cuba???

[bwhorton2007]

hey tampa,may be some spin to that area near texas coast or am i seeing things.
the area is right on the coast but it appears to be moving out over open water to the ene.

[AtlanticWind]

Is there as it appears to me a low
pressure area forming near 24 North and 76 west
just NW of those convective bands north of
cuba???

I think I see a weak low level spin north of 25 near 74 west

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't know about the TX system I haven't looked at it but this
bahamas system is slowly organizing
and should at least become a tropical storm
based on the models others posted in previous
pages of this thread.

[bwhorton2007]

Tampa the texas disturbance definately has some spin look right along the coast!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there as it appears to me a low
pressure area forming near 24 North and 76 west
just NW of those convective bands north of
cuba???

I think I see a weak low level spin north of 25 near 74 west

Makes sense since the convection firing up north
of cuba is rotating Northeast while the
clouds to the NW are being rapidly pushed
to the Southwest...let's see if thunderstorms
can develop on the northwest side to aid
those on the southeast side...and close
off the low potentially...

[Vortex]

00Z Nam rolling in..

H+30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa the texas disturbance definately has some spin look right along the coast!

regarding the area near texas:
Yes but I am not too impressed by the convection which was very
strong earlier but has since dissipated or is much weaker...
Whatever spin may be a result of convection earlier

As for Texas, I think Texas could have a much bigger
impact from this bahamas system after it crosses
FL into the gulf...