Western Caribbean Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wxman at least not yet -- something to watch as the Wave in the E. Caribbean moves west.

Correct. As I pointed out yesterday, I notice similarities in the current pattern across the western and central Caribbean to just before Wilma developed in 2005. I'm not saying a major hurricane will likely develop, just that we need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean for another few weeks.

I'll be watching the western caribbean very closely
the next few weeks.

[Sanibel]

If you have a sharp eye the remnant center of 94L is over Guatemala slowly drifting slightly ENE. Those deep bursts of convection off Yucatan earlier were associated with it as the shear direction is now NE and up the trough. IF this remnant center can get back over water (GFDL solution from two days ago) it should finally develop. GFDL had it break down and dissipate before emerging. BUT it had this south loop over Yucatan correct. The trough is breaking up and clearing out. 94L is the only feature hanging down there intact in a shear pocket. But it is weak and over land.

[gatorcane]

Wxman in addition to the similarities to 2005...note we have a system in the Far East Atlantic similar to Vince...

[Blown Away]

It appears that broad low may move back towards the ENE. It seems that low and/or all its convection may move off the Yucatan shortly. 11:30 NHC Update is now mentioning it, but gives it little chance to develop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

I'm beginning to think 2007 has won and beaten back even this deep trough. It's very possible nothing will come from this but weak swirls.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

94L is back.


So the GFS does bring in a trough at
some point that would force 94L east
and northeast...This is something that
the eastern gulf and especially Florida's west coast must watch very
closely becuase of how the axis of the trough
turn these systems sharply NE.

[Derek Ortt]

that is an absurred amount of sensationlism. A weak low hitting a sparcely populated part of the coast?

Time to defend my M.S. Thesis (and I thought that was a little stressful)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

that is an absurred amount of sensationlism. A weak low hitting a sparcely populated part of the coast?

Time to defend my M.S. Thesis (and I thought that was a little stressful)

I changed it.

[hurricanetrack]

I gotta go with Derek on this one, saying that it is very disturbing at this point is a little over the top. 12Z GFS is interesting as it joins the UKMET in actually developing a tropical cyclone. However, until it gets going and looks formidable, if it ever does, I suggest a period of calm and patience. We've made it this far...we might have something to watch next week, or we might not. No need to get too worked about it just yet.

[hurricanetrack]

If the 12Z GFS were to come to fruition, even close, it would bring some much needed rain to portions of the SE. That would be great.

[Blown Away]

TBH Wrote:12Z GFS Very Disturbing:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
94L hits some vulnerable areas, hitting the
eastern gulf of mexico coastline:

So the GFS does bring in a trough at
some point that would force 94L east
and northeast...This is something that
the eastern gulf and especially Florida's west coast must watch very
closely becuase of how the axis of the trough
turn these systems sharply NE.

that is an absurred amount of sensationlism. A weak low hitting a sparcely populated part of the coast?
Time to defend my M.S. Thesis (and I thought that was a little stressful)

Nothing absurred about that statement, will it come to fruition, likely not. TBH didn't say it was going to be a hurricane. Even a TS can have significant surge effects on the vulnerable East Panhandle/Big Bend Area. I think the response was an overreaction, again.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEW 1004 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
19N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN OLD 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM
THE TWO LOWS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEYOND 22N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND
JAMAICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 74W-81W.

Ummm,a new low off Belize.

[Rainband]

This time of year is when the western caribbean makes me nervous. Hopefully we get some rain but nothing more.

[Kludge]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

[HurricaneRobert]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Sorry

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Sorry

Yea I double that...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

94L will be interesting to watch.
I don't think much will amount from
it as of yet due to it
being so close to land.
But it does bear watching.

[cycloneye]

[Stratosphere747]

Does JoeBa have some money or something on Texas this year?

[Portastorm]

Bastardi is saying that this thing begins to develop off Belize, moves NE for a while, then NW back across the Yuc. He then expects it to pose a concern for the TX coast next week.

Um, not sure about this ... he said something "developed" may move into the WGOM but I don't recall reading or hearing him say that this system would pose a concern to the TX coast next week.