Shell Mound wrote:Top six hyperactive Atlantic seasons and earliest formation date* in MDR (satellite era)
2005 – 11 Jul
1995 – 12 Jul
2004 – 3 Aug
2017 – 19 Jun
1961 – 17 Jul
1998 – 27 Jul
*TD or stronger
So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.
If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.
The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.
Of course, I am referring to SSTs in the MDR.
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284837592874266624
No way and no how does a bust hinge on one MDR TC before August.
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