TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

i see a bend TOWARDS the west...notice how the bamM is showing a bend to west...hmm

[storms in NC]

take a look at the visible and just tell me if you see a bend more toward the west..im not saying its moving west..but it seems to have stopped the 300

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

that looks like west but it could be the W word

[dwg71]

There seems to be t-storms moving NW just off the coast Bermuda to the SW. Does that mean anything as to the position or strenght of the BH (bermuda high)?

[Ivanhater]

oh and you have to slow the loop down otherwise its hard to tell whats going on

[deltadog03]

There seems to be t-storms moving NW just off the coast Bermuda to the SW. Does that mean anything as to the position or strenght of the BH (bermuda high)?

if you want to see a tale tale sign of the ridge building look at the WV...notice the ULL of the SE coast...is weakening and shunting SW...notice how storms try to push east but can't....

[MBismyPlayground]

take a look at the visible and just tell me if you see a bend more toward the west..im not saying its moving west..but it seems to have stopped the 300

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Honestly I am horrible at deciphering this but seems I see what you are talking about. What it means, though, ......haha......who knows, Irene has been very sly and sneaky. But I am not feeling good about it.

[clfenwi]

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?

lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question

pulled for revision

Well, if the agencies are consistent in what they are calling the center then you should get more or less parallel courses (no guarantees however)... let's see ...

AFWA's estimates over the past 12 hr
0545Z 23.9 59.2 W
1145Z 24.7N 61.4 W
1745Z 25.2 62.0 W

So, doing the math/trig... 12 hr heading of 277°
6 hr heading of 312°

SSD's estimates over 12 hr

11/0545 UTC 23.3N 60.3W
11/1145 UTC 25.1N 61.9W
11/1745 UTC 25.4N 63.1W

math and trig yields ... 12 hr heading of 304°
6 hr heading of 285°

my elaborate trig got undermined by a whopper of an arithmetic error that screwed up my calculation of the AFWA 12 hr heading... double checked everything and it shoud be sound now.

Given the non-conformity between the tracks, using a center to figure the track continues to be a bad idea. Following the storm mass would seem to be the better way to go...

[Ivanhater]

here is a very good water vapor loop...notice the upperlevel low deltadog is talking about

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[WindRunner]

Those sure don't seem like very unified estimates.

[dwg71]

Those sure don't seem like very unified estimates.

Estimates pulled will reserve judgement..

[Sanibel]

Irene has the look of a storm that will quickly improve once free of the ULL.

If the ULL was just a little further south it would snap the storm together by allowing the structure to even out and by venting it.

I'm looking at the synoptic in front and see no reason for west.

[gkrangers]

Irene has the look of a storm that will quickly improve once free of the ULL.

If the ULL was just a little further south it would snap the storm together by allowing the structure to even out and by venting it.

I'm looking at the synoptic in front and see no reason for west.

I thought the western Atlantic wasn't good for hurricanes tho?

[du1st]

I agree sanibel

[Sanibel]

No gk, only good for waves as you were saying yesterday.


Franklin, Harvey, Irene. All troubled, sheared, exposed, and weak...

[wxwatcher91]

so wait Sanibel what are you saying? Irene has good conditions ahead for strengthening or bad???

...Irene doesnt look like much on IR right now... just a lot of convection... I cant really find a spin...

[gkrangers]

No gk, only good for waves as you were saying yesterday.


Franklin, Harvey, Irene. All troubled, sheared, exposed, and weak...

Well you just sound conflicted. You say the western Atlantic is bad for hurricane development...while you say conditions will improve and forecast strengthening.

We'll see what the future holds for Irene...

[mvtrucking]

take a look at the visible and just tell me if you see a bend more toward the west..im not saying its moving west..but it seems to have stopped the 300

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Thats what I'm seeing.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you slow it down it does look like it.

[clfenwi]

18Z guidance

WHXX01 KWBC 111847
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 1800 050812 0600 050812 1800 050813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 63.3W 26.6N 65.6W 27.8N 67.6W 28.8N 69.3W
BAMM 25.3N 63.3W 26.5N 65.5W 27.5N 67.3W 28.4N 68.8W
A98E 25.3N 63.3W 26.5N 65.5W 27.5N 67.1W 28.3N 68.3W
LBAR 25.3N 63.3W 26.6N 65.2W 27.6N 66.6W 28.6N 67.8W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 1800 050815 1800 050816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.8N 71.1W 32.7N 73.5W 35.4N 72.4W 34.8N 69.2W
BAMM 29.2N 70.1W 31.2N 72.3W 32.5N 72.9W 32.3N 73.5W
A98E 28.8N 69.3W 29.4N 71.6W 30.0N 73.3W 30.8N 74.2W
LBAR 29.4N 68.8W 30.8N 70.8W 31.5N 72.0W 31.4N 74.0W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 67KTS 67KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 67KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 23.9N LONM12 = 60.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 58.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[wxwatcher91]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 111847
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050811 1800 050812 0600 050812 1800 050813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 63.3W 26.6N 65.6W 27.8N 67.6W 28.8N 69.3W
BAMM 25.3N 63.3W 26.5N 65.5W 27.5N 67.3W 28.4N 68.8W
A98E 25.3N 63.3W 26.5N 65.5W 27.5N 67.1W 28.3N 68.3W
LBAR 25.3N 63.3W 26.6N 65.2W 27.6N 66.6W 28.6N 67.8W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 1800 050815 1800 050816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.8N 71.1W 32.7N 73.5W 35.4N 72.4W 34.8N 69.2W
BAMM 29.2N 70.1W 31.2N 72.3W 32.5N 72.9W 32.3N 73.5W
A98E 28.8N 69.3W 29.4N 71.6W 30.0N 73.3W 30.8N 74.2W
LBAR 29.4N 68.8W 30.8N 70.8W 31.5N 72.0W 31.4N 74.0W
SHIP 65KTS 67KTS 67KTS 67KTS
DSHP 65KTS 67KTS 67KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 23.9N LONM12 = 60.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 58.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM


holding at 50mph... SHIPS forecast intensity has decreased for 72-120 hours