ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, there is a great chance of Neutral or a Weak El Nino showing up by the summer and fall,but no stronger El Nino. I say that because there is a factor that may induce that to occur and is the -PDO. Looking at the Pacific,it looks very cold in a good chunck of that ocean WestSouthwest of the U.S/Mexico and that PDO in a negative way can stop any warm waters to propagate westward towards Nino 3.4. It's something to watch in the comming weeks and months. Ntxw ,what do you think about this?

[Ntxw]

Hey peeps, there is a great chance of Neutral or a Weak El Nino showing up by the summer and fall,but no stronger El Nino. I say that because there is a factor that may induce that to occur and that is the -PDO. Looking at the Pacific,it looks very cold in a good chunck of that ocean West of the U.S and that PDO in a negative way can stop any warm waters to propagate westward towards Nino 3.4. It's something to watch in the comming weeks and months.

I totally agree with this thought, very nice catch! -PDO periods rarely supports strong Ninos. Another aspect that is not understood well is the sun. We are in a natural uptick of the solar cycle however it is well below normal in terms of activity so I would not favor strong El Nino. I agree that officially between now and summer we'll straddle neutral. El Nino might rear it's head by mid summer but I don't think the atmosphere will have reacted to it yet, takes time. Maybe a good front loaded Hurricane season perhaps?

[dexterlabio]

I think the WPac was due for a busy season anyway.

I'm just curious why is that so? I thought El Nino also suppresses the activity in the WPAC just like in the Atlantic......just like in 2010? Thanks for any answers!

[euro6208]

2010 was a la nina year i believe...and no, el nino's increases activity

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/5/12 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 is a tad cooler (-0.5C) down from the (-0.4C) that was at last week's update. It has to be mentioned that Nino 1-2 (From South America to 120W) continues to get warmer as this week's update is up to (+1.1C) and that is up from the (+0.9C) that was at last week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

The MJO is about to revive (again, the most recent previous wave signaled La Nina's decline in the eastern regions) itself into the important regions and propagate. This may be the end of La Nina's last stronghold in the 3.4/4 regions as a potential Kelvin wave could bring warmer waters from Maritime continent to the western Pacific (does not yet mean El Nino, but warm up the last remaining cold anomalies).

In the U.S. drought is beginning to show up in the upper midwest while the south central/southwest is very wet. This is indicative of an El Nino pattern, is there correlation? Possibly but not enough time yet to tell. The subtropical jet alive and well from the WPAC through North America. As the new MJO ramps up the STJ could intensify further should the two features connect. Just my two cents

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center March update

Neutral conditions by the end of April is what they forecast.

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012.

La Niña weakened during February 2012, as near- to- above average sea surface temperatures (SST) emerged in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). However, below-average SSTs persisted in the central Pacific, as indicated by the latest weekly Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices which were near -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened notably (Fig. 3), as reflected by a shallow lens (0m to ~25m depth) of positive temperature anomalies east of 125oW and by diminished below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). These changes are partly associated with strong low-level westerly wind anomalies across the eastern Pacific, which at times reflected the absence of equatorial easterlies in that region. Nonetheless, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to reflect the ongoing La Niña. Enhanced low-level equatorial easterlies persisted over the central and west-central Pacific, while convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Malyasia and the Phillipines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weakening La Niña.

A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to return during March-May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 6). The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Blown Away]

Predicting Neutral through 2012 summer? Is there a noticeable difference in El Nino hurricane activity when El Nino sets in late season vs early season?

[cycloneye]

Predicting Neutral through 2012 summer? Is there a noticeable difference in El Nino hurricane activity when El Nino sets in late season vs early season?

It doesn't matter if El Nino is declared early or later in the Summer and Fall,as it depends on how strong El Nino is to then have significant effects or not. We will know for sure by May - June,if El Nino will rear it's head and if it does,how strong it may be. We are in this El Nino discussion,but it may also turn out it stays Neutral thru the Summer and Fall so in other words,a lot of if's yet about what will ENSO will be like when the Summer and Fall kick in.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Has La Nina ever made a three-peat?

[hcane27]

Has La Nina ever made a three-peat?

From May of 1973 thru March of 1976 was the longest stretch of continuous "below" normal SST's in all 4 regions ( 1+2 , 3 , 4 , 3+4 ) , since 1950. But , there were some breaks in that time when the temperature was not below the standard accepted level of -.50 degrees centigrade considered to be the threshold for a "La Nina" to be declared , in some of the regions. Which means that , according to the accepted measurement , no , there have been no 3 La Nina's consecutively , at least since 1950.

[Ptarmigan]

Has La Nina ever made a three-peat?

From May of 1973 thru March of 1976 was the longest stretch of continuous "below" normal SST's in all 4 regions ( 1+2 , 3 , 4 , 3+4 ) , since 1950. But , there were some breaks in that time when the temperature was not below the standard accepted level of -.50 degrees centigrade considered to be the threshold for a "La Nina" to be declared , in some of the regions. Which means that , according to the accepted measurement , no , there have been no 3 La Nina's consecutively , at least since 1950.

Another long stretch of La Nina was from Summer 1998 to Early Spring 2001. It was also continuous.

[jinftl]

Latest update (early March 2012) forecasts a 30% probability of el nino conditions during the July-Aug-Sept period increasing to a bit below a 40% chance of el nino conditions during the Sept-Oct-Nov period.




http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure1.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Has La Nina ever made a three-peat?

From May of 1973 thru March of 1976 was the longest stretch of continuous "below" normal SST's in all 4 regions ( 1+2 , 3 , 4 , 3+4 ) , since 1950. But , there were some breaks in that time when the temperature was not below the standard accepted level of -.50 degrees centigrade considered to be the threshold for a "La Nina" to be declared , in some of the regions. Which means that , according to the accepted measurement , no , there have been no 3 La Nina's consecutively , at least since 1950.

Another long stretch of La Nina was from Summer 1998 to Early Spring 2001. It was also continuous.

Thank you. Not sure which I dread most.....an Arctic La Nina or a El Nino with drought.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/12/12 Weekly Update

This update is interesting because all Nino areas cooled down,even the warmest area 1+2 went cooler from ++1.1C that was at last week's update to ++0.4C.
Nino 3.4 cooled down to -0.6C and that is a tad cooler from the -0.5C that was at last week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Cyclenall]

Climate Prediction Center 3/12/12 Weekly Update

This update is interesting because all Nino areas cooled down,even the warmest area 1+2 went cooler from ++1.1C that was at last week's update to ++0.4C.
Nino 3.4 cooled down to -0.6C and that is a tad cooler from the -0.5C that was at last week's update.

This is good. This is the silver lining to the situation and shows that the rapid decline has ended and is even reversing a little. If this continues then my fears of an El Nino will start to fade. So far this week everything has been going well in the "weather-world" IMO (aka the way I want it too).

The Nino regions 1+2 and others seem to be going through rapid fluctuations. I don't know what that means if anything.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,we have to see two or three weeks of more cooling to then have a much better idea if is a definite trend or is only a temporary thing.But as I said,is interesting that the warming trend has stopped for now.

[OURAGAN]

It's cooling quickly:

[cycloneye]

It's cooling quickly:

Really it has stopped warming in the Pacific. Compare what the graphic of the 1rst of March showed to the 15th.

[OURAGAN]

Pacific is cooling quickly as fast it was warming in the last weeks.
What a diffrerence in SST ANOMALY beetwen 03/1/12 and 3/15/2012 !