Quiet Tropics

[dwg71]

Season doesnt really get started until August. Any activity for June and July should be minimal, (not mild - strong storms can form).

[KWT]

Yeah in the end June and July do have hurricanes forming in them and thus are part of the hurricane season...but as others have said the peak tends to be from August-October.

[gatorcane]

I don't particulary care for quiet June and July's. There is some evidence, albeit fairly weak, that quiet early seasons lead to more active later seasons. I would rather have a few tropical storms across the basin now to maybe cool off the waters some. Instead the waters are void of activity and are getting warmer by the day.

[Decomdoug]

We could use a low or two accross central Florida during June. If the lake gets any lower we will be able to walk accross.

[dwg71]

I don't particulary care for quiet June and July's. There is some evidence, albeit fairly weak, that quiet early seasons lead to more active later seasons. I would rather have a few tropical storms across the basin now to maybe cool off the waters some. Instead the waters are void of activity and are getting warmer by the day.

Any evidence I have seen has been very, very weak and could be just a statistical coincidence. I'll take a quiet June and July, it shortens the Texas Coast season to two months (August and Sept). After Oct 1, the odds of a hit here on the upper TX coast go down dramatically.

[gatorcane]

Indeed the correlation is very weak. But nobody should be fooled by the quiet first week+ of this season. The tropics have a habit of drastically changing at any given moment. It would not surprise me that 1-2 weeks from now is totally different than what we are seeing now.

[jinftl]

Lack of activity the first week of June = 'quiet in the tropics', but it is going too far to term it a 'quiet season.' That carries with it the implication that there is less activity than one would have expected during the tropical season to date.

That is not the case at all. If anything, it would be accurate to say that things are quiet in the tropics right now, but given we have already had a named storm (before June 1), it has starred off an 'active season'.

[KWT]

Besides we have 92E now which may well become something so its not dead quiet right now.

[HURAKAN]

Tranquility still rules since Arthur demise.

[stormy1970al]

That's kinda erie, actually.

Calm before the storm?

That is what I was thinking.

[Gustywind]

In a nutshell, we should keep in mind something.... during the period of 20th August to 31 th of September it's the peak of the season so there's higher chances to have a cane and a big cane too, but in reality you know better than me that at any time we could have a tropical system of interest . As far i'm concerned, at least Arthur in may...that's not so bad , and with others factors pressure low shear ssts near CV islands etc... i feel that we should see surprises in stores this season, but that's pretty subjective and because it's my thought. One thing for sure : be prepared at anytime is my advice. Nice regards Gustywind

[Gustywind]

That's kinda erie, actually.

Calm before the storm?

That is what I was thinking.

Absolutely time will tell and time goes by, things can turn dramatically , hope this won't happen but be ready at anytime is the only thing that i can say.

[HURAKAN]

[DanKellFla]

Does anybody else thing this thread is ironic? We are posting about having nothing to post about. Which, is fine with me.

[HURAKAN]

We're reporting the quiet state of the tropics at this time, which has been undisturbed since Arthur's demise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The middle of June is supposed to be quiet.

[jinftl]

While the season started on June 1, the 'heart' of the season that lights this board up is quite possibly 6 weeks or more away....not to say we may not have a storm or two before then, but we just have to let the tropics do its thing on its on timetable...and Mother Nature would laugh at us calling a 'season cancel' anytime before late August at the earliest....let's not taunt her~~~

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah... I used to get into the habit of watching every little thing, and waiting for something... getting upset when it didn't happen. Frankly if it happens it happens, but it won't be quiet. The world has been through a lot of disaster recently. Thank you mother nature for some calm.

[Ptarmigan]

Quiet tropics is very deceptive. 1950 and 2000 were late starters and turned out to be very active. 1950 had 13 storms and 8 major hurricanes, which out does 2005 season.

[KWT]

Yep there are plenty of late starters that have had huge actvities, 1961, 1999, 1998, 2004, 1950, 1969 are all what I'd call pretty late starters, they may have had an earlier A storm but in most cases the season didn't ramp up till mid August.