Let Us Not Forget 2004 & 2005

[Innotech]

Just came back from a great vacation in Grand Isle Louisiana and pleased to say the island has made an almost complete recovery. Beaches were beautiful and wide and better than wever. fishing is great. I hope other areas have recovered as well.

[KWT]

Thats good news Innotech. We've been quite lucky in the last couple of seasons in that the only really noteable system to make landfall was Humberto last season and whilst it was strong that was only a top end cat-1 which isn't as dangerous and damaging as a major.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thats good news Innotech. We've been quite lucky in the last couple of seasons in that the only really noteable system to make landfall was Humberto last season and whilst it was strong that was only a top end cat-1 which isn't as dangerous and damaging as a major.

Ehh... I agree to a point, but you may need to rephrase this statement to a "large" major. How would you explain Charley? It was intense, but it caused minimal surge and wasn't as damaging as the weaker Frances to many residents outside the inner core. Additionally, Humberto's notability is supported by its rapid intensification prior to striking a region impacted by Rita. You can always say we are "lucky" for --- seasons if we don't observe a Katrina or Rita type TC; frankly, large tropical cyclones with similar socio-economic impacts within the same region are rare. It's an intellectual and scientific fallacy, though it is understandable. I have seen many people utilize the "we haven't been hit by an intense TC over the course of --- years" excuse to justify their misconception of the "overdue" concept. An 80 kt hurricane such as Humberto is very close to Category 2 status, and I can name several damaging 85-95 kt tropical cyclones. The damage potential of Humberto was likely mitigated by its narrow wind radii; otherwise, a similar tropical cyclone that is intensifying and moving relatively slowly would be locally damaging, and I have heard several claims from residents in the "Golden Triangle" that Humberto did cause extensive damage to structures over a small and localized region.

The intensity trends of a TC are more important in terms of damage potential than the actual intensity.

[DanKellFla]

Forget 2004 & 2005? I have finally given up on one of my trees damaged in those storms. Those Honeybells were great. And, just for good measure, my ceiling still has stains.