Tropical Wave In Eastern Caribbean

[HUC]

I just look at my anenometer. Today the winds were steady from the SE ,in the wake of yersterday wave. I f they are changing from the E or NE to night,it will be a sign of a decent wave. So wait for 10 or 11pm.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not excited about it.

253
ABNT20 KNHC 122333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chris_in_Tampa]

GOES Puerto Rico Imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[Gustywind]

I just look at my anenometer. Today the winds were steady from the SE ,in the wake of yersterday wave. I f they are changing from the E or NE to night,it will be a sign of a decent wave. So wait for 10 or 11pm.

Yeah interresting analysis, let's see if they are veering.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Gaining convection nicely

[gatorcane]

very impressive wave. It looks better than most waves in all of 2007. This convection has blown up out of nowhere. If this convection persists until the next NHC advisory look for it to be mentioned for sure.

Latest:


Upper-level winds:

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM Discussion:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT WITH
A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM. THE GFS MODEL 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 57W-61W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRI...SPREADING OVER THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SAT.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

Yeah Gatorcane, i don't know what they are looking for but sometimes the mentionned wave poor than this muscled wave maybe if this continues a strong a vigorous as they mentionned it often in August...

[Derek Ortt]

I'm also a little surprised that NHC didn't mention it

Although, to be fair, I only decided to mention it this evening at the last minute

[gatorcane]

Yeah Derek I think the NHC may want it to persist longer? If it were August, I do agree with Gustywind it would be mentioned.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Grantley Adams, Barbados:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... refvalue=1

METAR TBPB 130000Z 19016KT 2000 RA FEW010CB BKN012 BKN040 24/24 Q1015

Not just an open wave it appears. We have south wind with a very slight west component. (from 190 degrees)

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Gatorcane glad to read it, i tkink that in the next outlook they will mention it ...matter of hours...lol. But...what a twave pretty solid game tonight without good upper levels supports, whereas as Huc said nicely what will happens if we where in August my friends, we should be "objective " for the moment theses waves are seductives and challenging all my bets with a strong beginning hope not strong finish on any lands...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Much convection, twave much ronder than the previous hours!

[Gustywind]

Grantley Adams, Barbados:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... refvalue=1

METAR TBPB 130000Z 19016KT 2000 RA FEW010CB BKN012 BKN040 24/24 Q1015

Not just an open wave it appears. We have south wind with a very slight west component. (from 190 degrees)

LOL" just an open wave" just pretty early i will say dont' you tkink that? That's nice at this period not rare slightly unusual, heuu open wave i heard it in Mid July when we found organized twave right now it's the classical, let"s see what pan's out with it tonight....

[gatorcane]

Gustywind, it certainly looks like some nasty conditions are on the way for the leeward islands later tonight that is for sure.

Is it possible for this blob to just go poof? I guess its possible but its looking pretty menacing at the moment.

I edited the title because I think it deserves the "vigorous" title at the moment.

[cycloneye]

When they tagged 91L,it looked much worse than this. Maybe in a few hours we see 92L if convection persists.

[Gustywind]

For nasty yeah , nasty conditions ...agree Humm Gatorcane you're defintely right, nice post analysis, very menacing if i where the forecaster i would speak about a possible deterioration but...i'm not lol!
In each island Guadeloupe and Martinica they speak about slight instability, but....the weather forecaster of Martinica emphasizes in the last forecast that if the wave trying to deep maybe things would change and they should feel numerous strongs showers without apparently scattered thunderstorms ( i'm doubtfull yet). Curiously nothing special in Guadeloupe only scattered showers for tommorow, we will see... maybe it will go poof because i saw that shear is strong near us 30 to Kts, but the latest shear tendency seems to show that winds are abatting.
As usual matter of time but tommorow morning can bring his surprises, the wave is continuing his trip with strengh tonight for sure and does not suffering for any shear lol.....

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

did anybody see such a large convection complex coming from this wave? Why the sudden burst we are seeing?

[tropicana]

Nearly 2 inches of rain has already fallen on Barbados's south coast at Rockley, in Christchurch tonight. Where it is still raining.

[rahan]

Definately a nice burst of convection, lets see if it persists.