June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

KWT · #21 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:56 pm

Fair enough recurve but what about the major hurricanes, because I've seen some seasons that have 12 tropical storms or less but had numerous majors and dangerous systems, 1961 springs to mind as such a season, 11 TS but 7 majors which included 2 5's.

The thing is even if we don't get another system till mid august we are not even close to being out of the woods, so many seasons in the past pushed out 6 or more hurricanes in the space of 4-5 weeks at the peak of the season and you only need one of those to be a powerful cat-3/4...even 5 to hit land and create havoc.

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:03 pm

One thing is clear, there is no average season. 2006 came as close as you can. What we call "average" is a combination between slow seasons and active seasons. Therefore, you can expect every season to be different.

Ptarmigan · #23 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:22 pm

Time to write off this season as a dud! :wink:

Some season could be written off as quiet, but proven wrong. 1949, 1950, 1969, 2000, and 2004 had late starts and they were active.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:29 pm

In 2004 the season started on August 1 with Alex and from there we know what happened in Florida.The 2004 season had 15 named systems.

#25 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:56 pm

The way the pattern is set right now, 2008's tracks could be very similar to 2004 (posted above), IMO. That if the pattern doesn't change by the time we get to Aug-Oct.

Lifesgud2 · #26 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:57 am

this season sure does look like a bust to me. 05 and 06 were not typical. Keep that in mind.

KWT · #27 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:59 am

Well actually 2006 was typical in nearly everyway to be honest, as someone once said 2006 is about as average as a season can get!

Do you mean 04 and 05 by any chance?

dwg71 · #28 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:52 am

Season will be dictated by the shear, imo. I am expecting a later start to the season, maybe first week of August for first "real" storm. By real, I mean one that actually is over water

I would love it if we had a repeat of 1997.

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:57 am

What defines a season in its historical value usually occurs between August and October. If nothing happens before and after those months, it's pretty typical.

Squarethecircle · #30 Postby **Squarethecircle** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:By real, I mean one that actually is over water

Storms can be tropical over land. Most landfalling storms remain tropical for a brief period of time over land, and what became Arthur just happened to remain strengthening over land.

dwg71 · #31 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 12:47 pm

Squarethecircle wrote:
dwg71 wrote:By real, I mean one that actually is over water

Storms can be tropical over land. Most landfalling storms remain tropical for a brief period of time over land, and what became Arthur just happened to remain strengthening over land.

I know, but 10 years ago that storm probably would not have gotten a second look. JMO.

Recurve · #32 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:17 pm

KWT wrote:Fair enough recurve but what about the major hurricanes, because I've seen some seasons that have 12 tropical storms or less but had numerous majors and dangerous systems, 1961 springs to mind as such a season, 11 TS but 7 majors which included 2 5's.

The thing is even if we don't get another system till mid august we are not even close to being out of the woods, so many seasons in the past pushed out 6 or more hurricanes in the space of 4-5 weeks at the peak of the season and you only need one of those to be a powerful cat-3/4...even 5 to hit land and create havoc.

Absolutely agree. I went low on majors in my season prediction, but that's pretty much reverse -removed-.
I'm glad for a quiet June but don't think it indicates the season won't roar to life, maybe not until late Aug.

Patrick99 · #33 Postby **Patrick99** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:09 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Aug 15 to Oct 15 sweat weeks, all other times pretty much outliers. Here, most of activity is just after Labor Day which is good because in season evacs almost impossible.

The S. FL season can easily stretch well into November. Can conceivably be hit at any time during the season down here.

#34 Postby **canetracker** » Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:16 pm

NDG wrote:The way the pattern is set right now, 2008's tracks could be very similar to 2004 (posted above), IMO. That if the pattern doesn't change by the time we get to Aug-Oct.

NDG and Cycloneye, I tend to agree with your assessments. Conditions are not right at this time but may become more favorable by latter July / beginning of August. As another poster, Ptarmigan, put it" "Some season could be written off as quiet, but proven wrong. 1949, 1950, 1969, 2000, and 2004 had late starts and they were active." Besides I have some fishing to due in July and don't want any tropical systems interfering. I would not put the season over signs out yet!!

Category 5 · #35 Postby **Category 5** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 7:48 am

Lifesgud2 wrote:this season sure does look like a bust to me. 05 and 06 were not typical. Keep that in mind.

Would you care to support this with any facts? You know since it's quite an interesting statement to make in June.

KWT · #36 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 7:58 am

People like that probably would also have proclaimed that 1998, 1999 and 2004 were all going to busts but as well all three seasons had very dangerous hurricanes.

ConvergenceZone · #37 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 3:45 pm

Well, normally I get upset if I don't have anything to track, but this year is different. I think it's because of the current state of the economy. The USA doesn't need this and we sure don't need gas prices spiking to $7 or $8 a gallon if a refinery gets knocked out. With more analysts jumping on the "we are heading for a depression" bandwagon, I'm hoping more than ever that we will just have some intense fish storms to track, not impacting any land areas(including islands)..... The enjoyment for me comes by just watching the birth to death cycle of a Cat 5 that's spinning out in the ocean far from any landmass. Sure, ya don't get the excitement and rush you'd experience of living on the edge when a cane is coming close to your neck of the woods, but I think our economy wouldn't be able to withstand this....It's really scary to think about the implications it would cause.

I think August to September it will pick up in earnest though. I just like to spend this time learning about canes and watching the conditions in the Atlantic and relaxing.... :wink:

x-y-no · #38 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 4:09 pm

No season is a bust unless you're all the way into September with no storms.

Ed Mahmoud · #39 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 4:21 pm

x-y-no wrote:No season is a bust unless you're all the way into September with no storms.

Except for Andrew, 1992 was a bust. But just one storm can make a difference.

x-y-no · #40 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 27, 2008 4:32 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
x-y-no wrote:No season is a bust unless you're all the way into September with no storms.

Except for Andrew, 1992 was a bust. But just one storm can make a difference.

Yep. Having experienced the cat 4 part of the north eye wall, I could have done with 1992 being just a little bit more of a bust. :lol:

June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re: June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re: June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re: June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Re:

Re:

Re: June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re: June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

Re:

Re: Re:

Who is online