Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

[NDG]

It does not have to have closed LLC to be declared an Invest, broad cyclonic circulation with convection near the center is good enough to run models to see what they come out with, but if the NHC thinks that is attached to the ITCZ then I could really see not doing anything yet. This does not look any worst than 91L did.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Yep NDG I agree on that just want to see it sustain that convection a little longer and if it does then we may well get 93L from this wave.

[Gustywind]

Indeed gustywind shear is lowering in the E.car but it still appear that it will be pretty hefty have to admit even if it does reduce a little bit.
f ifi
Thuder, I suspect it does have a closed circulation looking at the loops, not sure at what level though.

Absolutely KWT i guess that for sure, it should abate a bit but won't be sufficient to carry more than Invest if if an invest can be seen ( should it verifies), and i'm very dubfull for that, i bet for a moderate twave bringing showers and isolated tstorms tommorow night near the east carib and no more!
If you look closely convection is fairly concentrated but lacking too much for mu untrained eye...whereas " me encanto" with this strong convective activity today , and we're only in July, it's awesome, busy trend if this continues! !

[cycloneye]

It will start to feel the shear to its west soon.

[Gustywind]

It will start to feel the shear to its west soon.

le pienso tambien Cycloneye difficult trip ahead to the Olympics Shear Games

[tailgater]

I agree shear will rip this little system apart pretty soon, but it should be watched closely tonight, cause these small circulations can spin up fairly quickly. Shear tendency chart shows some slight lessening.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Maybe not a Bear watch yet but something to check on in the morning.

[tailgater]

from the 805 TWD
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A LOW
IS FORMING ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

[Gustywind]

LOW?Bear Watch tailgater

[xironman]

The ITCZ cluster of thunderstorms continues... the GFS is still is hinting that the for the shear to back off a bit in a couple of days http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008070118&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=048hr

[cycloneye]

That small ball of convection is where the tiny circulation is.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020219
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST TUE JUL 1 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THISTROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good pic for all to see the two things shear and the small system.There is that shear screaming in the Eastern Caribbean and the little disturbance at the bottom right part of pic moving towards that.

[tailgater]

Here's the latest Quickscat, I can't find anything closed, of course this is at least a few hours old.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?483,224

[Sanibel]

Good eye Cycloneye. This one will probably evaporate, but in high season we've seen these turn into hurricanes more than once.

This pattern makes me worry about high season since a lot of curved disturbances are showing up this early season.

[NDG]

Convection is increasing once again near the small vorticity with the TW.

[KWT]

Still got deep convection as well and there isw certainly rotation present, I think we could see 93L up soon given the convection has been sustained and there is clearly rotation present, closed or not may be another question.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020907
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST WED JUL 2 2008

AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...NEARING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI.

[cycloneye]

First visible pic.



Infared pic



The tiny circulation is still there.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST WED JUL 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS REVEALS LONG-LIVED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N AND 58W MAINTAINING
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE
TROPICAL WAVES CAN BE SEEN ALONG AND NEAR 10N THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROPAGATION AS A RESULT OF THE ATLANTIC
HIGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE ISLANDS.

MULTIPLE WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CAN BE SEEN
VIA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 52W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WAVE TO THE LOCAL AREA WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.