Bermuda preparations,observations and web cams thread

[cycloneye]

Still the residents of Bermuda have to watch how Bertha tracks.The surfers there will be happy with the big waves.

[cycloneye]

Bermuda not out of the woods completly as the forecsst track shifts a little more west.What is important to watch is as Bertha slows down how it moves as sometimes systems move in an erratic way.

[JonathanBelles]

Not being pessimistic, but im hoping to have Bermuda under a Hurricane Watch so we can see the Surge product operationally.

[abajan]

Wasn't there a move afoot by the National Weather Service to get rid of the solid and dotted lines on hurricane maps because it was realized that the majority of people tended to focus on those lines instead of the cone of uncertainty?

Officially, Bermuda is not in the clear.

[weatherwindow]

thus far, nrl has cpa..1200hrs, sat 12 july...162nm....bermuda weather service has issued small craft advisories...ne 12-18kts, becoming 15-20kts, 3-5 inside reef, 9-12 outside reef.... http://www.weather.bm/forecastmarineextended.asp

[RL3AO]

Wasn't there a move afoot by the National Weather Service to get rid of the solid and dotted lines on hurricane maps because it was realized that the majority of people tended to focus on those lines instead of the cone of uncertainty?

Officially, Bermuda is not in the clear.

Not sure. I personally wish they would. Of course there would still be the forecast points, so the media might still show a map with the center line anyway.

[cycloneye]

I am putting a sticky to this thread as it looks like they will be at least on a hurricane watch in the next couple of days,and to get information from our member that lives there.

[StormTracker]

Good eyedea (idea) CE!!! I think we're gonna need it!

[brunota2003]

Wasn't there a move afoot by the National Weather Service to get rid of the solid and dotted lines on hurricane maps because it was realized that the majority of people tended to focus on those lines instead of the cone of uncertainty?

Officially, Bermuda is not in the clear.

Not sure. I personally wish they would. Of course there would still be the forecast points, so the media might still show a map with the center line anyway.

There is an option to turn the Centerline off on the NHC site.

[cycloneye]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST WED JUL 09 2008

...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY BUT COULD REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Chacor]

CONSIDERING THE COMBINED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF BERTHA...THERE IS ALREADY A 43%
CHANCE THAT BERMUDA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

[SapphireSea]

Wasn't there a move afoot by the National Weather Service to get rid of the solid and dotted lines on hurricane maps because it was realized that the majority of people tended to focus on those lines instead of the cone of uncertainty?

Officially, Bermuda is not in the clear.

Not sure. I personally wish they would. Of course there would still be the forecast points, so the media might still show a map with the center line anyway.

I think the line is fine when you are dealing with the storm in a scientifical research phase of tracking a storm. I believe that when a storm is threatening landmasses or is in a position to affect a landmass, the forecast points and line should be eliminated in way of a wind-swath/cone of uncertainty hybrid map. This needs to be done with very clear warnings and instructions as how to read the map.

In the end however, saying a hurricane is not a straight line is sometimes misleading. Even history's most powerful storms in terms of directly life threatening wind and surge, are indeed condensed to the immediate eye-wall and cdo areas; The latter threat (surge) is however much more dangerous and has a wider swath than real wind threat of course.

To this day I think the NHC and many of the global tropical forecast centers provide unparalleled and accurate best track warning and information as it is. I believe we usually do not give enough credit to these authorities and blame them in lieu of a faulty local government action plan or a faulty personal safety plan within a family or business, and sadly these two things occur in a mix from observations.

To get back on topic, I think Bermuda should definately closely monitor this storm and await warning information from the NHC, and be prepared to deal with at least mild Tropical Storm conditions within a few days. This storm can easily flux at that latitude and gain a much larger TS wind swath area, and thus put Bermuda into that situation, so it justifies the comments and predictions made by the NHC product.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHWEST...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

[msbee]

latest report from Bermuda on stormcarib.com

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

[cycloneye]

Those in Bermuda must continue to follow the progress of Hurricane Bertha as it may track a little more closer to the island than expected earlier.

[cycloneye]

From the Bermuda Weather Service:

http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStor ... 88&Num=300

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:

Date: 11 am Sun, Jul 13, 2008. Distance: 146 nm to the ESE


I haved seen that number of nm decline with a new advisory.

[JonathanBelles]

Webcams in Bermuda

http://www.bermudashorts.bm/glencam/ (updates once an hour)
http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html (updates every 2 mins)

[msbee]

The first cam you listed is not operational at this time

[JonathanBelles]

oops, yea I didnt see that.

[weatherwindow]

as of 1100, 10 july..nrl has closest point of approach at 137nm as of 2100, sun 13 july...forecast conditions: ne 20-30kts, backing to north, easterly swell, seas 3-6 inside the reef, 9-18 outside the reef...current small craft advisory thru friday... personal comment: i would expect the small craft advisory will be replaced by further warnings http://www.weather.bm/forecastmarineextended.asp