Bertha's ACE=It reached 28

[senorpepr]

Like just now... I'm going back to fix more addition. Do people not use calculators?

[HURAKAN]

I feel the "ace" is a better way to tell how seasons are. Why because you can have many a weak tropical storms to make a season like 2002 or you can have a impressive season like 2001,2003,2004 that don't have that many more storms in not tell much difference.

The ace is the energy released from a storm more or less.

Bertha so far has 3.32 Ace.

I say 7.5 for Bertha...

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 8.02 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 8.39


Matt, your ACE foreast has already been surpassed.

[Chacor]

My calculations using the operational best-track in the ATCF comes up to 7.97 so far for Bertha.

[KWT]

Just wondering how far above average are we as of right now senorpepr, must be way ahead of the game so to speak?

[senorpepr]

Just wondering how far above average are we as of right now senorpepr, must be way ahead of the game so to speak?

I haven't tossed in the best track figures into my spreadsheet yet. However, using the advisories, we're at 8.3850, or about 9.58% of a normal season. (That ranks us at 156th out of the 158 seasons on record).

However, if we look at where we are now compared to where we should be, we're at around 111.43% of normal. If we keep on this pace, driven by the climatological curve (not saying using solely climatology, but basing our current totals, amplifying them for the peak of the season, etc), we'll end up at around 97.5. That would rank us at 48th/158

[senorpepr]

While I'm on the topic, based on the advisories... we have 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 intense hurricane. That breaks down to 6 named storm days, 1.5 hurricane days, and 0.75 intense hurricane days. That yields a NTC of 222.1%


(I shouldn't say this... but taking the current activity to date and projecting it out using the same climatological curve, we'll end up with 23 named storms... using the name "Beta" I should stress... THE CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE SLIM TO NONE.)

[KWT]

Ah ok cool stats. With Bertha we should see us continue to get more and more above average. Its also amazing to think that we are already ahead of 2 of the slowest seasons!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I feel the "ace" is a better way to tell how seasons are. Why because you can have many a weak tropical storms to make a season like 2002 or you can have a impressive season like 2001,2003,2004 that don't have that many more storms in not tell much difference.

The ace is the energy released from a storm more or less.

Bertha so far has 3.32 Ace.

I say 7.5 for Bertha...

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 8.02 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 8.39


Matt, your ACE foreast has already been surpassed.

Yeah, I did not think it would become a cat3 hurricane, when I made my forecast. But anyways only two of last years storms are now ahead of Bertha.

[KWT]

There is a chance if steering currents are weak enough there is a chance that Bertha will even beat Felix's ACE of 18.03. Bertha is only around half way there but it is a possiblity if it can stay between 65-80kts for the next 5 days it could reach that. We shall see!

Is a very good start for those who have forecasted above average ACE this season.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1    9.45    Bertha    2    0.37    Arthur
Total: 9.81

Bertha may pass Félix. 65 knots = 0.4225 ACE

0.4225 x 4 advisories x 5 days = 8.45 ACE

8.45 + 9.45 = 17.9

Félix's ACE is 18.03.

[KWT]

Yep its looking very possible now Hurakan, esp if it can get a little stronger then 65kts for a little while that would help its cause somewhat. Decent start to the season, will be very interesting to see how many systems we get out of the Cape Verde region this year, if we can 2-3 form east of 50W then we are pretty much certain to get an above average season IMO.

[cycloneye]

ACE continues to climb rapidly on Bertha.And the 2008 season starts on a high ACE number when the Bertha numbers are finished.

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 9.8675
Total 10.235

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[dwg71]

ACE continues to climb rapidly on Bertha.And the 2008 season starts on a high ACE number when the Bertha numbers are finished.

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 9.8675
Total 10.235

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

Long runners that form that far east will boost ACE values. Luckily, it appears that very few will be impacted.

[RL3AO]

The Atlantic has caugt and passed the EPac for ACE this season.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the 2008 season is on a sprint thanks to Bertha,it is spiking fast.And Bertha alone is at 10.6775.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 10.6775
Total  11.045


[HURAKAN]

Bertha is only 7.3525 behind Félix. If it stays strong it could break away in about 36 to 48 hours.

[KWT]

Yep with Bertha strengthening now as well its looking increasingly likely that Bertha will overtake Felix eventually, very impressive for an early season hurricane!
Also going to overtake Bertha 1996.

[Chacor]

With the 12z 80 kts, we're up to 12.85 based on best-track. (18z BT: 85 kts; operationally was 90 kts).

[cycloneye]

Bertha up to 13.3525.Season has 13.72.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 13.3525
Total  13.72


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[Chacor]

That cannot be right. Someone's got their maths wrong, that's 12.985 using operational advisories and 12.85 using best-track intensities.