Area in SW Caribbean (NOW INVEST 95L IN ACTIVE STORMS FORUM)

[TexWx]

Looks like the northern half of the convection wants to spin off by itself.

[MiamiensisWx]

This one deserves more attention than 94L. It appears to harbor more substantive chances for brief tropical cyclogenesis. There is extensive upper level divergence and diffluence, along with low level convergence (ITCZ related) and 850 mb low level vorticity. Shear is considerably lower over this one, and a surface low could be developing overnight. Weak 250 mb anticyclonic wind vectors are evident as well. A reconnaissance mission may be prudent tomorrow, since it features more "optimistic" probabilities for pre-"landfall" development than the bleak setting for 94L. Additionally, this one poses a heavy precip threat for Central America.

INVEST may be forthcoming by tomorrow...

[MiamiensisWx]

Additional convection is developing in the vicinity:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Tropical wave axis is enhancing LL convergence as well.

[Duddy]

Additional convection is developing in the vicinity:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Tropical wave axis is enhancing LL convergence as well.

That look's more like late August.

[RL3AO]

I'm not ruling out 95L for tonight. Just needs a burst.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

[Brent]

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

I don't know that I've ever seen the phrase "very favorable for development" in the TWO before.

and I'm wondering why this is not an invest...

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't know that I've ever seen the phrase "very favorable for development" in the TWO before.

and I'm wondering why this is not an invest...

The memory bank of humans is ephemeral. I can recall several TWOs over the years that featured the wording you mentioned.

[Thunder44]

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

I don't know that I've ever seen the phrase "very favorable for development" in the TWO before.

and I'm wondering why this is not an invest...

It still has a lower chance of development than 94L, according to NHC.

[MiamiensisWx]

It still has a lower chance of development than 94L.

That's probably related to the fast west movement of the wave axis and associated low level convergence.

[CrazyC83]

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

I don't know that I've ever seen the phrase "very favorable for development" in the TWO before.

and I'm wondering why this is not an invest...

Probably since it doesn't have a large window of development. Still if things hold as such I'd expect this to become 95L or 96L (depending on the Florida low) soon.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 21 MOVING W 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE
OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...WITH FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-85W INCLUDING THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH NICARAGUA MOVING INTO HONDURAS.

[Dean4Storms]

Might very well be Genevieve in three or four days.

If that happens, the 2008 season would just be a few days behind schedule for the 1992 season which had 27 storms. Georgette formed on July 14 in 1992. Of course the EPac was working on its second cat 4 at this time in 1992. 2008 hasn't been as active ACE/stregth wise.

Never mind.

[O Town]

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

I don't know that I've ever seen the phrase "very favorable for development" in the TWO before.

and I'm wondering why this is not an invest...

Because it also says that it only expects it to "possibly" become a depression before slamming into Central America.

[HURAKAN]

94L is not the only one with chances in the Caribbean.

[Cryomaniac]

This is insane for July, it really is. I think that either this system or 94L will develop, maybe both.

Then there's that FL thing that could end up developing later on.

We could be up to 5 storms by next week.

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook:

SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA LATER TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT IT HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.

[Thunder44]

Like NHC said conditions look very favorable for development. The only thing really going against it, is time. From what I seen on this map, it's been lacking enough low-level convergence, to organize quicker:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Like NHC said conditions look very favorable for development. The only thing really going against it, is time. From what I seen on this map, it's been lacking enough low-level convergence, to organize quicker:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Agree.

Also has better structure than 94 ever has...running out of time and water though

[NDG]

That little tiny island east of Nicaragua is now reporting a W wind, pressure is down to 1009 mb, I would say that circulation is trying to form or has formed near that island.