New Africa Wave

[O Town]

Was just about to post those HURAKAN

Nice looking ball of convection but it seems a little too far south.

And what's the matter? Explain your idea? Do you mean that it won't developp or not?

Generally speaking when waves exit below 10 from Africa they would need to develop rather quickly to start a more northerly path or most likely they will just slam into South America before they get the chance to do much. No need to eye roll either.

[O Town]

New Pics.

[Gustywind]

Was just about to post those HURAKAN

Nice looking ball of convection but it seems a little too far south.

And what's the matter? Explain your idea? Do you mean that it won't developp or not?

Generally speaking when waves exit below 10 from Africa they would need to develop rather quickly to start a more northerly path or most likely they will just slam into South America before they get the chance to do much. No need to eye roll either.

Ok tkanks that's pretty normal, twaves should need to Coriolis power in theory past 10°North to spin. But this one could be a low tracker as Dean or maybe Ivan and the others lows trackers, whereas for the moment we're far away of that, let's see what happens within the next 72h. But for sure another nice African wave .....

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Interresting weather conditions ahead this African wave, just a little bit of SAL just near its location, and then not too much SAL at 30 west to 60W...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear right now along its futur trip is somewhat weak...maybe a window of opportunity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html
Weak shear too here

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my amateur and unofficial opinion, waves as close to the Equator as about 6 or 7º have potential to develop, if all else is favorable.

Of course, they need to be above 10ºN by about 60ºW or they will cruise South America, and the closer to South America they pass, even if offshore, the more the Equatorial heat low, especially in early and mid-Summer, will compete for inflow and tend to increase apparent shear due to strong low level flow from the East.

[Blown Away]

Are there any models that develop this wave?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

...THE ITCZ...

205 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W IN COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA.

[KWT]

Wave has weakened a lot but there is still a little area of fairly deep convection present fairly far south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

[catastrophic]

The wave is holding toget better than 97L did
[img]african wave.bmp[/img]

[cycloneye]

The wave is holding toget better than 97L did
[img]african wave.bmp[/img]

First,welcome to storm2k.You posted about the wave in a thread that is old,as it was for another wave.The members are discussing about the present wave emerging Africa here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102072&p=1751813#p1751813