Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[Blown Away]

Does this wave still have some model support? Anybody willing to predict an Invest or poof at this point?

[cycloneye]

Does this wave still have some model support? Anybody willing to predict an Invest or poof at this point?

Check the first page and the model support.Lets see what the 00z guidance has.

[gatorcane]

WV mid image that shows water vapor (grey) and dry air (orange) areas at the mid levels of the atmosphere for our emerging low:

[boca]

WV mid image that shows water vapor (grey) and dry air (orange) areas at the mid levels of the atmosphere for our emerging low:

It looks like this one exits Africa at 12n instead of 16n like 97L did.Lets see what happens with this one.

[gatorcane]

Climatology is against this system. I took a look at all systems forming over the past 150 years forming within 65 NM of 12N 25W (the area with this low is heading) and I found only 2 systems for the month of July. But if you look at August, I see 23 systems. (Note there are many more systems that develop farther west than the area above, especially August-September)

That is not saying this low cannot develop because there are exceptions (e.g. Bertha 2008) but climatology is against it developing over the next several days or from ever developing.

[cycloneye]

TPC in the 00z analysis has added the low pressure at 1008 mbs.

[Jason_B]

Climatology is against this system. I took a look at all systems forming over the past 150 years forming within 65 NM of 12N 25W (the area with this low is heading) and I found only 2 systems for the month of July. But if you look at August, I see 23 systems. (Note there are many more systems that develop farther west than the area above, especially August-September)

That is not saying this low cannot develop because there are exceptions (e.g. Bertha 2008) but climatology is against it developing over the next several days or from ever developing.

Climatology is also against 4 named storms before August. I'm not saying this wave will develop, I actually don't think it will, I'm just saying climo is a little overrated when using it as a tool to determine whether something will develop or not. Conditions at the present time can be different than what conditions usually are for this time of year.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Climatology is against this system. I took a look at all systems forming over the past 150 years forming within 65 NM of 12N 25W (the area with this low is heading) and I found only 2 systems for the month of July. But if you look at August, I see 23 systems. (Note there are many more systems that develop farther west than the area above, especially August-September)

That is not saying this low cannot develop because there are exceptions (e.g. Bertha 2008) but climatology is against it developing over the next several days or from ever developing.

You make it sound like some magic switch gets pulled on August 1.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

The last one looked good and evaporated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This one is moving off the coast at near the same level as Bertha. Much warmer water and with little SAL, I believe this should be watched closely. We will see what comes of it. In fact climo starts becoming more supportive of tropical cyclones off the coast of Africa around this time. Remember Alberto 2000?

[cycloneye]

The 1008 mb low is around 12n.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[cycloneye]

Convection has been increasing in the past few hours:

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS takes this system to the northern islands in a week...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[bob rulz]

Looks impressive, and it looks like it's holding together better than the previous wave. There's still 3 days for July to get another named system; could this one do it?

[KWT]

It doesn't look bad at all right now with some decent convection still present and it being further south. Despite that we have to see how it does in the next 12-24hrs and if it can keep the convection up.

[Mecklenburg]

does MJO inhibits it's organization?

[Smurfwicked]

I've seen a few different impressive looking waves come off the western coast so far that just seemed to evaporate to almost nothing once getting over there water. This one does seem to be holding together longer than the last. Looking at this and the area in the GOM I see 2 potential invest today, but then again I don't much about when the NHC decides to consider something a invest.

[hial2]

does MJO inhibits it's organization?

I think I read a pro say (Derek?) that MJO has no effect on waves while in western Atlantic..