Large wave in Central Atlantic

[BigA]

still has convection as it moves offshore. Next 24-48 hours will be interesting. Will SAL kill it?

[dixiebreeze]

Looking very good and about the right latitude:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

*poof*.... I don't see the outcome of this wave being any different than the others. I guess until the SAL is completely gone, *poof* will be the word...

[GeneratorPower]

Come on, now. The poor thing hasn't even left Africa and you're already signing it's death certificate. At least let it actually die before saying poof!

[Gustywind]

Wait and see before saying anything whereas i'm a little dubtfull

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: Come on, now. The poor thing hasn't even left Africa and you're already signing it's death certificate. At least let it actually die before saying poof!

It's just that I'm finally understanding what Derek was talking about regarding the SAL. When the last wave came off, I thought that one would develop for sure and he mentioned the SAL would take care of it. I was skeptical, but he was right. The Sal is just too strong right now, and it doesn't really take much of it to *poof* out a wave. Now it's always possible that once the wave gets closer to carib it can refire, but conditions just don't seem to be that conducive in the eastern Atlantic right now for systems to sustain convection...

[KWT]

The last SAL burst was intense but doesn't mean another SAL burst is certain to come off behind this one, indeed the waves ahead of this one may take some of the blow.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also an increase of convection across the continent. Perhaps if these thunderstorm complexes can continue to fire, they will aid this wave in development in the next few days.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Yes and KWT behind this wave exiting from Africa, a nice train of waves is occuring...a couple of white and puffy clouds seems boiling

[ConvergenceZone]

The last SAL burst was intense but doesn't mean another SAL burst is certain to come off behind this one, indeed the waves ahead of this one may take some of the blow.

Well, it's possible that the last SAL map I looked at hadn't been updated, as I still remember seeing a lot of SAL still out there. I guess I'll need to find an updated map of the SAL to see for sure...

[Gustywind]

Also an increase of convection across the continent. Perhaps if these thunderstorm complexes can continue to fire, they will aid this wave in development in the next few days.

Yeah absolutely, it's amazing no time out really on Africa for the moment, a wave has been always mentionned in the TWD since Mid May . I would be glad to know how many have crossed the Ocean for the moment...; it's awesome, in some seasons you have less waves than that, but remember less does not mean inactive, but it could be a positive influence factor to have better chances to see more hurricanes....

[catastrophic]

right now it looks like it dosnot have a good chnce because of the SAL, but so fare it is still gaining convection despite the sal to the north of it

[Mecklenburg]

aw.... this would have had a good chance of becoming a long-tracked cape verde storm... blast that SAL... SAL is always such a nuisance....

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST E OF 16W. A SIMILAR AREA OF CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-21W.

$$
HUFFMAN

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well the SAL may take care of this one, but with teh train to follow, it will quickly be taken care of. I bet teh next 2 or 3 off of Africa will pave a favorable path for the one that has just gotten about 1/3 of the way across the continent. That one looks really potent already and may be our next serious cape verde player.

[cycloneye]

There is a new low analized.

[Mecklenburg]

darn, why are these recent lows so far north????

[Weatherfreak000]

SAL interaction I think,


Many waves come off Africa, few survive the first 48 hours and even fewer become Tropical Systems. Best to sit back and wait for some model support and better conditions.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Now that it is August, poofation isn't a near certainty anymore on storm clusters leaving Africa.

[Mecklenburg]

Now that it is August, poofation isn't a near certainty anymore on storm clusters leaving Africa.

i guess so, but this SAL outbreak could be seasonwide... just like 2005 where poofations in CV is rampant