New Wave coming off Africa

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET again is with it.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.7N 18.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.08.2008 9.7N 18.6W MODERATE

00UTC 15.08.2008 12.2N 19.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 15.08.2008 14.0N 22.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.08.2008 14.3N 25.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 16.08.2008 15.2N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2008 15.5N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2008 15.7N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2008 16.2N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2008 16.1N 42.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[OURAGAN]

Big fish storm, antilles are protected this season, like the others.

[KWT]

Takes it on a very similar path as 93L, we shall have to see if that happens mind you, GFS doesn't agree on that.

[OURAGAN]

Don't expect anything about 92 and 93L, these invests would never been existed.

[Category 5]

Don't expect anything about 92 and 93L, these invests would never been existed.

First of all wrong thread.

Second of all, go to the right thread and post this with something to back it up.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS brings it into Sabine Pass (TX/LA) border as a hurricane on the 27th of August. Yeah, I believe that 14 day forecast!

[OURAGAN]

The most serious invest, future 94L.
This one will develop surely and will not be like 92 and 93L invest.

[Category 5]

The most serious invest, future 94L.
This one will develop surely and will not be like 92 and 93L invest.

92 and 93 are still alive. And if you're so sure it will develop, why not tell us why you think that?

[KWT]

OURAGAN, we just can't say this may just be a model fallacy that we sometimes see, just because the GFS does develop it pretty strongly doesn't mean anything will come of it, if anything will probably follow more of a 93L path then 92L IMO at this early stage.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yesterday EC, today Western La....Go figure!!!

[Category 5]

Yesterday EC, today Western La....Go figure!!!

Yeah the models are real confident 14 days out.

[Praxus]

Hmm do ya think we have enough action in the atlantic yet?

[HurricaneHunter914]

About 24 hrs after emerging and it's still going strong. I think invest status will be here shortly. Looks good with a nice spin.

[dwg71]

the vast majority of waves emerging from the coast of Africa do NOT develop. This may or may not.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 126 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

138 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

150 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif System about to enter the Eastern Caribbean sea.

162 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif Just east of Guadeloupe,Dominica and Martinique.

180 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif In Eastern Caribbean Sea.

216 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif South of Hispanola.

312 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif in GOM

As Derek said below,a much weaker run from start to finish.

[Derek Ortt]

much less intense this time

I wonder if the waves are coming off NORTH of the monsoon trough, which is resulting in the inflow from the south not reaching the center of the low, keeping the systems from developing

[HURAKAN]

Looking pretty good.

In the image you can also see the three systems.

[RL3AO]

GFS develops it quick and brings it into Florida and then into the GOM in two weeks.

[KWT]

It does look very impressive, wouldn't be at all surprised to see this as 94L pretty soon given the deep convection it has.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND LIKELY WEST OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST