Disturbed Weather in Eastern Atlantic ( Is invest 97L)

[Gustywind]

08/1145 UTC 14.4N 33.9W T1.0/1.5 IN1 -- Atlantic Ocean
A bit higher in lattitude than the NHC position?...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Sanibel]

Think this has refired near 10N-37W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

[cycloneye]

Floater 1.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
35W-40W.

[wxman57]

Floater 1.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

That's the upper low which has a weak surface eddy near 16N/40.3W, not the disturbance to watch. Look farther southeast near 8N/31W. Convection is increasing there and there's a clear rotation in the mid levels. Could be an invest soon. Here's a better satellite shot showing the tropical disturbance with the upper low to the NW:

[ronjon]

Yeah wxman57, that's the location GFS has been developing consistently over the last week or so of runs.

[wxman57]

Yeah wxman57, that's the location GFS has been developing consistently over the last week or so of runs.

More recently, though, the GFS has not been forecasting anything to develop in the eastern Atlantic. This disturbance should be encountering increasing shear soon. Hopefully, it'll dissipate.

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 091813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N39W 10N38W 4N37.5W
MOVING WEST 10 KT OR LESS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...AND FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND
41W.

[Sanibel]

Whoa! Another ITCZ disturbance with a twist. Maybe this will blow-off like the original one the thread was based on.

[captain east]

Starting to organize a bit and getting deeper convection could become a yellow sometime tonight...

[captain east]

Code yellow now


Didn't mention anything about being unfavorable environment only slow development, so we might have something worth watching but's it's too early to tell. This thing could pull a Houdini tonight or maybe even be a invest by early morning...

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100010
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

It's looking alot like September instead of October out there, especially as we head into next week where a very large Bermuda ridge is forecasted to develop across the western Atlantic as a polar jet digs down into the Western part of North America amplifying this ridge....Upper-level winds should be become more favorable next week for development Across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean basin.

[Rainband]

I vote for no more storms I think that will be the case.

[captain east]

I vote for no more storms I think that will be the case.

I'm with you, wish it were winter, love the cold...

[jinftl]

Nana in the making with the area of disturbed weather wsw of the cape verde islands? Either will be Nana...or nada.

The one name I have had a bad feeling about this season would be the next after Nana....Omar. Omar was retired as a name in the West Pac after hitting Guam as a supertyphoon in 1992. What's in a name? Only time may tell...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100010
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

Looks to be on its way to an invest pretty quickly

[Cyclenall]

It's an invest now. I just checked the backup NRL site to see if it popped up yet and it did.

[cycloneye]

This system is invest 97L so the thread is locked.Go to active storms forum for all the information about the system.