2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guessing Game

[Derek Ortt]

small correction, NHC is no longer in Coral Gables. They are in sweetwater at the FIU campus (I wish they were in CG, would save me a lot of driving time when I have to go there)

[wxman57]

small correction, NHC is no longer in Coral Gables. They are in sweetwater at the FIU campus (I wish they were in CG, would save me a lot of driving time when I have to go there)

I thought about that when I wrote it, but didn't bother to check out the new location. Clearly, though, that's where the first advisory will be issued.

[cycloneye]

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
Defined how? If we count the 2 or more storms that were missed or not classified prior to modern satellite (and current naming of STSs), then the average season has closer to 12 named storms. I expect a slightly above normal number this year.

57,the question is for the average before the 1995 increase,that is 10 named storms.

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Very ambiguous question. Define "active". Yes, there will be at least one storm that forms east of 30W, but I wouldn't say this will be an "active" Cape Verde season (meaning maybe 3-4 CV storms).

Systems that form east of 30w.

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
Again, quite ambiguous. How do you define strength? Mean central pressure? Size? Scope?

Mean Central Pressure.

[gigabite]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occurred in 2003?
YES
16-Where will Ana form?
OFF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
17-Will the Upper Shear be strong, average or light?
STRONG
18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
OFF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA

1) The phase of the QBO affects hurricanes in the Atlantic and is widely used as a prognostic in hurricane forecasts. Increased hurricane activity occurs for westerly (or positive) zonal wind anomalies; reduced hurricane activity for easterly or negative zonal wind anomalies.
2) 30 mb zonal wind index - CDAS
2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.10

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... PE=Instant

The smallest analog distance nearest the same latitude as 2009 Moon position at aphelion was in 1972. That produced a sub-tropical system alpha.


1972 Subtropical Storm ALPHA (23-29 MAY)
Storm - Max Winds: 60 Min Pres: 991
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html