Joe Bastardi 2009 updated forecast=10/6/2

[AJC3]

To me, this is a real head-scratcher. I'm at a total loss trying to understand his use of '83 as an analog year. The bulk of '83 featured steady, significant cooling of all the ENSO zones as the EPAC was coming off the strongest warm ENSO phase ever recorded. Given the lag time in oceanic-atmospheric coupling (i.e. between SST change and how the atmosphere behaves) I don't see this as a good analog pattern to use at all.

[wxman57]

To me, this is a real head-scratcher. I'm at a total loss trying to understand his use of '83 as an analog year. The bulk of '83 featured steady, significant cooling of all the ENSO zones as the EPAC was coming off the strongest warm ENSO phase ever recorded. Given the lag time in oceanic-atmospheric coupling (i.e. between SST change and how the atmosphere behaves) I don't see this as a good analog pattern to use at all.

I've reviewed his predictions and never saw him mention 1983 as any kind of analog year for all parameters in any of his long seasonal outlook videos or discussions on the AccuWeather Pro site. He did state that the two top analogs are 1951 and 2006. I think it's looking more like El Nino may be a factor in limiting the number of storms this season, particularly any later season storms.

[AJC3]

To me, this is a real head-scratcher. I'm at a total loss trying to understand his use of '83 as an analog year. The bulk of '83 featured steady, significant cooling of all the ENSO zones as the EPAC was coming off the strongest warm ENSO phase ever recorded. Given the lag time in oceanic-atmospheric coupling (i.e. between SST change and how the atmosphere behaves) I don't see this as a good analog pattern to use at all.

I've reviewed his predictions and never saw him mention 1983 as any kind of analog year for all parameters in any of his long seasonal outlook videos or discussions on the AccuWeather Pro site. He did state that the two top analogs are 1951 and 2006. I think it's looking more like El Nino may be a factor in limiting the number of storms this season, particularly any later season storms.

Gotcha. I had assumed that what I had read earlier in this thread was correct.

Makes much more sense that he didn't.

[Ptarmigan]

1983 was quiet due to a strong El Nino and cooler phase of AMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB mentions years as being analogs, and a few weeks later says they aren't analogs.


He was talking a lot about 1957 a few weeks ago, and a week or two back, he mentioned 1957 as reminding him of something, but said it wasn't an analog year.


But he absolutely mentioned 1983 just a week ago when giving his belief all Pacific basins would be active. And I am pretty sure 1983 was mentioned a few weeks back as far as Gulf and East Coast action with a quiet Caribbean. Of course the Atlantic is in a warmer cycle now so it won't be quite that low in numbers.


But the point, 10 storms, for JB to predict a quieter year than the recent average, he must really believe it will be a quiet year.



JB is harder to read, more global warming, less weather. And I tend to agree with him on AGW. But the daily rant seems to cut down on writing about the weather.