Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Squarethecircle]

Finally, I'll be able to get my homework done this school year!

[HouTXmetro]

Tropics going to explode at some point.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Pacific should be active witb a warm ENSO.

Euro has a tropical storm next week near Okinawa

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZJUN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 132.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF DAVAO,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PIN-
POINT AND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS OCCURRING AT MID-LEVEL. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO INDICATES WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 06
KNOTS AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB, A DROP OF 2 MB IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[storm54]

Tropics going to explode at some point.

That would be the worst fear for most of us.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFS seems to imply some sort of hybrid or sub-tropical development off the Mid-Atlantic.

Still appears to be frontal, based on the bent isobars to the East and the 850 mb vorticity to the South, but it looks like it is under a bit of an upper ridge.




I still put my money on either the East Pac or West Pac systems the Euro is promising, with the East Pac system looking darned impressive by Day 10.

[Ptarmigan]

The EPAC better hurry up to develop something as June 19 1994 modern record for the latest storm formation date looms.

1994 for EPAC was very active. Sometimes late starters are very active.

[vbhoutex]

Tropics going to explode at some point.

What do you base that thought on?

[Macrocane]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

Sorry, it might be a silly question but I'm kind of new in this forum, what does "season cancel" mean?

Welcome aboard. It is what some will say when they get frustrated when systems either don't develop or there is nothing on the horizon. Reverse people I disagree with would also fall in this column .

Thanks for the reply! So we have already had some season cancels this last pair of weeks. I think that the trend is going to change soon in the EPAC.

[KWT]

The EPAC better hurry up to develop something as June 19 1994 modern record for the latest storm formation date looms.

1994 for EPAC was very active. Sometimes late starters are very active.

Indeed it was, also 2006 was on the active side and that didn't get active till July either. I think with an El Nino event the EPAC should eventually get going but for know the basin is struggling somewhat even with a favorable MJO phase around. 1987 also struggled in June, maybe something of a reoccuring theme there...

I'd put my bet on the next system forming in the WPAC, ECM going for a system to form out there from it seems 98W.

Given we are in a pretty large solar min, we can't rule out a globally rather inactive year, though El Nino should at least perk things up in the Pacific at some point.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro still a week off on an EPac system, but it appears proximity to land in this run keeps it from being all that it could be.



98W develops and is a near miss for Japan. Per the model, anyway.

[Andrew92]

The EPAC better hurry up to develop something as June 19 1994 modern record for the latest storm formation date looms.

Are you talking about in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific as a whole?

Also, if not for an unnamed tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific in 1996, the first storm of that year was also very close to June 19. Arthur was named on June 18, Alma on June 20.

Oh, and 1996 was a year in which a total of ten hurricanes made landfall anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. Many of them category 1's, but hopefully you get the idea. (By the way, five of them hit Mexico - Alma, Boris, Dolly, Fausto, and Hernan. The others were Bertha, Cesar, Fran, Hortense, and Lili.)

I doubt this year will be anything like 1996, but just saying a late start does not mean a quiet season.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Are you talking about in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific as a whole?

EPAC only.

[KWT]

ECM now develops an EPAC system and then forms another one by 240hrs, second time in three runs the ECM has formed something out in that region though this run seems to be really keen on the EPAC region.

Also the WPAC system forms as well.

[Cookie]

I was reading somewhere that we are having the slowest period of tropical cyclones globally since the mid 70's

[Typhoon Hunter]

98W looking quite healthy at the moment so I reckon the Wpac will see the world's next storm. JTWC have it as "FAIR" and ECMWF still taking it towards Japan as a TC.

[KWT]

ECM has almost backed away from the tropical system developing in the EPAC this morning, it does suggest maybe something close to a TD but nothing more then that. There is some decent convective bursts out there but its still being sheared quite badly it seems.

[cycloneye]

98W has fallen apart,so it looks like the delay for the third TC in the WPAC will continue for a while.

[srainhoutx]

Would enjoy a 1980 analog comparison concerning this season. Allen was a big scare in TX.

[KWT]

Yep 98W has gone to pieces so as you say cycloneye the wait for the 3rd tropical cyclone continues in the WPAC.

ECM still suggests a system or maybe 2 forms in the EPAC between the 20th and the 23rd, indeed the first of these systems crosses over into the BoC.

[HouTXmetro]

Tropics going to explode at some point.

What do you base that thought on?

I like just like to hear myself talk sometime. lol.. But seriously, things have to get active at some point this season. It's the law of averages.