Development between Africa and Lesser Antilles (6/28 - 7/4)

#21 Postby **BigA** » Wed Jun 24, 2009 8:19 pm

Doesn't SAL destroy waves when it comes in from behind them, not when it is already there ahead of a wave?

#22 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Jun 24, 2009 8:20 pm

OT, but has anyone notice the "disturbance" near Cuba in the not too distant future. :wink:

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 24, 2009 8:29 pm

Dont get too excited when you see a flareup like this on the West Coast of Africa.Lets see persistance and then we go from there.

#24 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jun 24, 2009 8:57 pm

Would be very surprised to see this wave become anything!

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 24, 2009 11:10 pm

GFS in the 00z run continues with its consistency showing the strong wave.

48 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

72 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

90 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

114 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

144 hours=It mantains a low pressure with wave at 50w longitud.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

174 hours=Still has a low pressure located just NNE of Trinidad and Tobago.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:14 am

What is for sure is the ample moisture that the emerging system has.

Ed Mahmoud · #27 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:30 am

6Z GFS has a strong wave, borderline depression, into Lesser Antilles and another wave, at least as impressive, in the Atlantic.

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:36 am

If you ask me,this is the best thing that has emerged Africa this year.But if it goes ahead and be more than a wave,is another animal.

Ed Mahmoud · #29 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:36 am

Most early season waves do poof, but this is an impressive wave...

But I remember Bertha,so I'm not completely writing it off.

boca · #30 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:43 am

I guess the GFS sees something out of the ordinary.Don't most of the tropical waves that hit the water this time of year ususally go poof.This one does look good but the water temps are like 74 or 75 out there right now.I don't see this forming into anything.I'll wait 48 hours to see if it actually goes poof.

Ed Mahmoud · #31 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:46 am

boca wrote:I guess the GFS sees something out of the ordinary.Don't most of the tropical waves that hit the water this time of year ususally go poof.This one does look good but the water temps are like 74 or 75 out there right now.I don't see this forming into anything.I'll wait 48 hours to see if it actually goes poof.

If it stays below 10ºN, the water is marginally warm enough.

#32 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:52 am

That was the second thing I noticed about it. It is a little bit South of where waves normally need to be to get going, especially at this time of year. The first thing I noticed is it's very robust look. Poof???? :think:

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:53 am

This is the wave that gave birth to Bertha as it was emerging West Africa.I am not saying anything more.

#34 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 8:59 am

Comparison of the Bertha wave and this one certainly make one :think:

. Time will tell. I certainly am not counting on or out anything at this point.

Extremeweatherguy · #35 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:02 am

Wow! The wave that became Bertha ('08) and the current wave are strikingly similar.

**Edit = Corrected year for Bertha**

boca · #36 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:03 am

vbhoutex wrote:Comparison of the Bertha wave and this one certainly make one . Time will tell. I certainly am not counting on or out anything at this point.

It looks like the wave that formed Bertha already had some sort of pre existing spin to it.The present wave looks good but I don't see a rotation with it yet.

#37 Postby **BigA** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:16 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Wow! The wave that became Bertha ('96) and the current wave are strikingly similar.

I think Cycloneye's picture is from the wave that spawned 2008's incarnation of Bertha.

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:16 am

This QS pass was made at 3:16 AM EDT and shows no dicernable circulation at that time,but has some strong winds reflected in the dark and red barbs.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:17 am

BigA wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Wow! The wave that became Bertha ('96) and the current wave are strikingly similar.

I think Cycloneye's picture is from the wave that spawned 2008's incarnation of Bertha.

2008 Bertha.I forgot to mention the year.

Derek Ortt · #40 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 25, 2009 9:22 am

one major difference

every model showed significant development with Bertha last year

Development between Africa and Lesser Antilles (6/28 - 7/4)

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