Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Macrocane]

  Wishing for a quiet season would be like buying season tickets for your favorite team but hoping they don't have any exciting, down-to-the-wire plays in any game! 

Wow, I love that. Can we sticky this to the top of the page or something?

I agree with you, by the way jinftl are you a pro-writer cause those were some pretty good words.

[Sanibel]

This really could be one of those dangerous years that everyone keeps talking about like '92.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

I have noticed that every day there are more and more comparisons to 2004 season, but conditions are different this time, yes there will be a weak to moderate El Niño and yes it has been a slow start but that doesn't mean that 2004 is an analog year though mother nature gives us surprises

That's correct. SSTs in the MDR were much warmer in 2004. And the ECMWF is predicting the Bermuda High to be quite strong in August/September, nearly as strong as 1983. So shear in the deep tropics south of 20-25N will be more of a factor than in 2004.

Might someone explain this a little more (what is a Bermuda High and how does it impact shear)? I'd like to better understand this point. Thanks very much.

WLD

[hurricanetrack]

All I can say is that it is interesting that so much stock is being put in to the Euro forecast of a stronger Bermuda/Azores High in the peak months of the hurricane season. What if it is off by just a little? We're talking about a forecast for several weeks out. Is this forecast updated every day? If so, does it continue to show this higher than normal pressure pattern? Seems to be that a lot hinges on this to be the main culprit in keeping the tropics very quiet this year.

I also do not completely get the SST deal in the Atlantic MDR. It's not like temps will be below 80F out there. In fact, water temps are at or above 80F in most of the MDR right now and certainly west of 40W south of 15N. Of course, these temps continue to warm as the season wears on. This is what happens every year. Just because they are not as warm as 2004, so what? Ivan and Frances formed way out there but they could have formed farther west had temps been slightly cooler- and they still would have hit the U.S.

I am not trying to argue with any one person about what they think about the season ahead. But it is still only early July. The SOI is now positive even in the 30 day AVG. SSTs in the Atlantic are continuing to warm- and in some places are doing so to above normal ranges. We are seeing plenty of deep convection from time to time over Africa which moves out over the east Atlantic and fades. This is typical so far- right?

While I certainly understand how a stronger than normal Bermuda/Azores high would tend to squash development, I am not sure I can completely believe that the forecast will verify 100%. If it does, then the science has come a long way and we may finally have the tools needed to accurately predict how much tropical cylcone activty we'll see in a given season. For now, it is early July. In 60 days, let's see where things stand. Apparently the odds favor a very inactive ATL season. We are about to find out for sure.

[KWT]

Whats also interesting to note is the May-June average shows the Bermuda/Azores high has actually weakened *alot*which may be a reason to argue against the point that the Euro is forecasting a strong Bermuda high. I'd like to see July's data before making that call though.

Should be noted thats also probably a good part of the reason why the SST's have warmed in the Atlantic, combined with the El Nino link. So I'm not sure if I actually put too much credence into the eCM forecast, had we still had the Spring pattern which did feature a strong Azores high then I'd be more interested, but as it stands with a -ve NAO in place as well I'm not too sure the Bermuda/Azores high will be as potent as forecasted. What the May-June average did show was the high has shifted towards Bermuda rather then the Azores region as it had been in the Spring.

[Cookie]

Maybe we should name every batch of dry air that comes out of Africa!!

[SETXWXLADY]

Ok. I'm new at this. But all I've been hearing up until yesterday was that we'd have a negative NAO. And looking at the models that seems to be what they're showing. And the European model is completely opposite of what the CFS has called for at least for September. CFS said we'd have a bigger but weaker Bermuda high. Did that change? Just wondering. Any information would be appreciated.

[Aric Dunn]

a look at the set up for 2004/2005 season..

pulled it from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/sev ... canes.html

[Category 5]

Well the good part is that there are other basins to track.

Theres a potentially significant storm in the EPAC, along with a system and several invests in the WPAC, so the title of this thread is quite inaccurate.

[Ptarmigan]

Quick Hand me the Paddles !!!!! Dont Die on me now !!

Cue the dramatic music.

I wouldn't be so quick to write this season yet. Late starters have been active in the past.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

whats with all the season cancel talk. August is the big show. For example in 2004 no storms formed till august 1. The capacity for a bad season is still there

[CrazyC83]

Remember: it only takes one.

We could have only one hurricane or storm all season, but what if that one is like Katrina?

[Category 5]

whats with all the season cancel talk. August is the big show. For example in 2004 no storms formed till august 1. The capacity for a bad season is still there

Considering your nick, that made me laugh, but you're correct, I didn't post that 2004 chart yesterday for fun you know.

[Bailey1777]

No season cancel for sure, but you can't argue that it has been an extremely boring season. I will be straight forward about my take's. I love mother nature and all she presents. I want to track storms, debate storms, learn something new everyday, and enjoy the complexity of each of these systems. I don't wish for crushing strikes and loss of life but let's be real no action at all suck's! I can appreciate those that say I hope we never have another system ever, but personally that would take away from one of my favorite past-times.

[RL3AO]

...Its July.

[Stormcenter]

Don't trust your "gut feeling" on this one.

I think the on switch is on the way, despite all of the el nino talk...

(just a gut feeling)

[Stormcenter]

No doubt about it....the key is where and when.

Give the season another month, something will surely pop-up.

[mpic]

I think for us in Texas, after Ike, we are anxious for information because we have so recently been reminded of what hurricanes can do. I want to think the season is dead so I don't have to save my vacation time for evacuation purposes. I hate it when the weather man says (this morning) that there's a hurricane and then you wait for the story only to find it's in the Pacific. That's when I know it's time to come here instead.

[Aric Dunn]

whats with all the season cancel talk. August is the big show. For example in 2004 no storms formed till august 1. The capacity for a bad season is still there

This thread was not about the season being canceled, it was simply the fact that ITCZ was really flat the other day and so i made a the comment it looks like were flat lined and we needed some paddles to bring her back to life.. thats all .. the thread just sort of took on a life of its owm.

[Sanibel]

Tropical prediction is notorious for following the unseen factor, however I agree with the poster who said the weakness of the Atlantic would make the possibility of closer to home developers more likely - but, of course, in the tropics, this means nothing, if that makes sense.