Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[PTrackerLA]

Best looking wave all season, wouldn't be surprised to see an Invest later today but it needs some more consolidated convection.

[gatorcane]

Question is what does the ECMWF/UKMET do with this thing now --- and will the long-wave pattern in the long-range show less or no troughiness?

We will know at 15Z.

[HURAKAN]

470
ABNT20 KNHC 131746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL IN THE 600-800 MB LAYER ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE IS LIKELY BEING MAINLY SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL IN THE 600-800 MB LAYER ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE IS LIKELY BEING MAINLY SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.

key point in that is "THE WAVE IS LIKELY BEING MAINLY SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ."

I have to say the wave is quite large and has some potential more so than anything else this far. I know the GFs has been developing something from this wave for the last week or so and at least the gfs called there being something at all. for the next 2 days upper winds wont be a problem and its only inhibiting factor is being attached to the ITCZ but if the convection persists and becomes a little more concentrated than we may be looking at some development.

[Aric Dunn]

[HURAKAN]

Lets see if it materializes.

[wxman57]

Not a lot of obs out there in the tropics, but I'd put the wave axis farther west, west of 30W. There appear to be 2-3 vorticity centers embedded in the ITCZ. The GFS is focusing on the easternmost vorticity center for development. For development to occur, this area needs to consolidate and develop deep convection over a much smaller area, not spread out along 10 degrees of longitude.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the TPW the wave is farther east. I'd have to check again tog et the exact coords

[wxman57]

based upon the TPW the wave is farther east. I'd have to check again tog et the exact coords

Generally, those MIMIC images are a bit old (about 6 hrs). Latest available image is from 13Z. The wave axis and rotation appear to be west of 30W as of 13Z. That second surge of TPW off the west coast of Africa is more prominent now.

[Derek Ortt]

you were right... I had 25W confused with 30W

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF on board now:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

[OpieStorm]

Going to be a slow developer if anything comes out of it.

[Macrocane]

12Z ECMWF on board now:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

If you look at the position and the time it coincides pretty well with GFS but it's still too early to believe them.

[Macrocane]

12Z ECMWF on board now:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

If you look at the position and the time it coincides pretty well with GFS but it's still too early to believe them.

[jinftl]

Latest satellite:

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, where is the 12Z CMC?

[hurricanetrack]

Is it me, or does that cloud mass just off the coast, just south of Dakar, look like a little curled up Nauticus? Probably just tricks in the clouds and coincidence but it looks like it is curled up. Cool.

[cycloneye]

Mark,here it is.